The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 13 New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Monday Night Football game.

New EnglandRank@BuffaloRank
2.5Spread-2.5
21.5Implied Total23
287Points/Gm29.62
15.81Points All./Gm16.52
62.418Plays/Gm65.57
61.812Opp. Plays/Gm60.14
5.714Off. Yards/Play5.96
5.13Def. Yards/Play4.61
44.59%10Rush%39.58%20
55.41%23Pass%60.42%13
42.05%16Opp. Rush %41.15%15
57.95%17Opp. Pass %58.85%18
  • The Patriots (52.9%) and Bills (50.4%) are first and second in rate of scoring drives on offense.
  • The Patriots (27.9%) and Bills (28.7%) are first and second in rate of scoring drives allowed on defense. 
  • New England is first in the league in scoring plays per game on offense (5.3) and first in scoring plays allowed per game on defense (3.1).
  • Just 50.8% of the scoring plays for the Patriots have been touchdowns, 30th in the league.
  • The Bills are second in the league in yards per pass attempt over opponent (1.8 Y/A) while the Patriots are fourth (1.3 Y/A).
  • Buffalo is averaging 114.1 more yards per game than their opponent, the largest differential in the league. The next closest team (Tampa Bay) is at 73.3 more yards per game. 
  • The Patriots lead the league in sacks plus turnovers forced per game (4.6).

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Josh Allen: Allen is coming off his fourth week this season leading the position in points scored, throwing four touchdowns on Thanksgiving Night while rushing for 43 yards against the Saints. Allen did throw another two interceptions, something he has done in three of his past four games.

Allen has oscillated spike weeks and non-QB1 weeks over the past month and we are all waiting to see how Bill Belichick and the Patriots defend the Bills on Monday night. This is easily the lowest implied team total the Bills have had all season, so Vegas is buying into Allen and the Bills having to work here.

In two matchups versus New England last year, Allen was the QB21 (12.5 points) in a windy game and the QB1 (32.3 points). 

Obviously, a much different version of this New England defense is present in 2021. New England is second in the league in passing points allowed per game (10.2) and although they have had an overall light schedule, they also do still have Tom Brady (QB27) and Justin Herbert (QB18) as part of the sample as well.  Through 11 games, the only QB1 scoring weeks allowed by New England have come from Dak Prescott and…. Davis Mills, a performance that still rattles my brain in a season filled with bizarre outcomes. 

Given the implied total and Allen’s own ups and downs, it is hard to expect a spike week as a given, but that is not moving anyone off using has a top fantasy play.

To continue reading this article

and gain access to The Worksheet and all of Rich's regular content, including positional rankings, and chats, click below to purchase our season-long Fantasy Package.

Purchase
Already a Subscriber?Log In