The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 10 matchup between the Bucs and Patriots.
Find a breakdown of every Week 10 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| New England | Rank | @ | Tampa Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 23.0 | Implied Total | 25.5 | ||
| 26.3 | 7 | Points/Gm | 24.6 | 15 |
| 18.8 | 6 | Points All./Gm | 22.3 | 13 |
| 61.4 | 16 | Plays/Gm | 61.3 | 17 |
| 55.2 | 2 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.9 | 18 |
| 5.7 | 11 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 19 |
| 5.4 | 18 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 10 |
| 47.38% | 4 | Rush% | 41.63% | 21 |
| 52.62% | 29 | Pass% | 58.37% | 12 |
| 38.03% | 7 | Opp. Rush % | 38.59% | 8 |
| 61.97% | 26 | Opp. Pass % | 61.41% | 25 |
- All three Tampa Bay home games have gone over the game total, averaging 53.7 combined points per game.
- The Patriots are 6-2 (.750) in games they have trailed at any point, second in the league.
- The Bucs are 5-2 (7.14) in games they have trailed, third in the league.
- New England has led at the half in 8 of 9 games this season, the most in the league.
- Tampa Bay is 5-0 in games they have led at the half and 0-2 in the games they have trailed at the half.
- Opponents have converted a league-low 22.5% of their third downs against New England over the past four weeks.
- Tampa Bay has converted 27% (10 of 37) of third downs over its past three games (30th in the league), down from a 41.5% rate prior (11th).
- 32.3% of Baker Mayfield's third down passes have resulted in a first down or touchdown (28th).
- 47.8% of Drake Maye's third down passes have resulted in a first down or touchdown (3rd).
- 33.3% of New England's passing plays gain 10 or more yards, second in the league.
- The Patriots lead the league in success rate on passing plays (51.9%).
- The Buccaneers are 29th (39.9%), ahead of the Titans (38.1%), Giants (37.6%), and Browns (34.2%).
- Tampa Bay running backs have a run of 10 or more yards on a league-low 6.3% of their attempts.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Drake Maye: Maye did not have a huge fantasy line on Sunday, closing the week as the QB16 (16.4 points).
That was only his third week this season lower than QB9 in scoring.
Maye was still solid overall, throwing for 8.9 yards per pass attempt and 2 scores.
He has thrown multiple touchdowns in four straight games and in seven of his past eight.
Maye has completed 9.6% more of his passes than expected, so he is still sun-running a bit.
Maye is the QB11 in expected points per game (18.5) but the QB6 in points per game (21.6).
Last week could have been the start of that balancing out.
We came into last week expecting Maye to be blitzed a lot by Atlanta.
The Falcons blitzed Maye on a season-high 42.5% of his dropbacks.
Maye was 7 of 12 for 125 yards when blitzed, taking 4 sacks.
When blitzed this season, Maye has completed 73.7% of his passes (third) for 8.4 yards per pass attempt (8th) and a 7.9% touchdown rate (13th).
If there are nits to pick, he has a 10.6% sack rate when blitzed (26th), and his air yards plummet.
Maye is averaging 7.0 air yards per attempt when blitzed (23rd) compared to 8.7 air yards per throw when not blitzed (5th).
27.6% of his throws when blitzed travel 10 or more yards downfield (25th) compared to a 38.5% rate when not blitzed (4th).
That is relevant here because Tampa Bay is blitzing at the sixth-highest rate in the league (30.7%).
The Bucs also get pressure on 48.5% of their blitzes (11th).
When the Bucs do not get pressure, that is where they have had their issues.
On dropbacks without pressure, Tampa Bay has allowed 7.8 Y/A (22nd).
On a passing level, there is some volatility for Maye based on the matchup, but there is still plenty of upside in the overall game environment to warrant sticking with him as a QB1.
One area where Maye and New England can succeed is through play-action passing.
The Patriots are 18th in rate of play action (25.5%), but when they have used it, Maye has completed 70.8% of his passes (10th) for 8.7 Y/A (6th) and a 7.7% touchdown rate (10th).
Against play-action passes, Tampa Bay has allowed 9.8 yards per pass attempt (30th).
If Maye does run cold as a passer due to the aggressive nature of the Tampa Bay defense, he has an added out with his legs.
The Bucs are 29th in rushing yards allowed per game to quarterbacks.
The only quarterbacks they faced who did not have double-digit rushing yards were Sam Darnold and Jared Goff.
Michael Penix (21 yards and a touchdown), C.J. Stroud (27 yards), Tyrod Taylor (48 yards), Jalen Hurts (62 yards), Mac Jones (13 yards), Spencer Rattler, and Tyler Shough (12 yards each) all tacked on rushing output.
Baker Mayfield: Mayfield comes out of the bye after his two worst fantasy games of the season.
He was the QB19 (11.1 points) in Week 7 and the QB26 (4.1 points) in Week 8.
Mayfield had been getting away with lackluster underlying metrics for most of the early season via touchdown production, so maybe all of the things chipping away due to surrounding injuries finally caught up to him.
He also faced two more man coverage those weeks.
Mayfield has a 43.6% completion rate against man coverage, ahead of only Cam Ward (42.9%).
His 4.7 yards per attempt against man coverage is ahead of only Carson Wentz (4.6 Y/A).
The Patriots are 10th in rate of man coverage (28.6%).
Mayfield is QB20 in expected fantasy points per game (16.0), which aligns with most of his metrics halfway through the season.
Mayfield has completed 63.9% of his passes (23rd) for 7.1 Y/A (16th) and a 4.8% touchdown rate (17th).
We can issue a hall pass for injuries at wide receiver and on the offensive line.
Tampa Bay did open the practice window for right tackle Luke Goedeke to return, which will be a welcome addition.
I believe Mayfield is more boom-or-bust than Maye, but there are reasons to chase the upside outcome.
Even though Mayfield has hit a cold stretch and the offense still is full of question marks, this game has the potential to be high scoring.
The Patriots are also a pass funnel, through game scripts and a dominant run defense.
Mayfield should throw a lot here.
When he does, New England is allowing 7.4 yards per attempt (24th).
They are 20th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.456).
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 10 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Raiders @ Broncos | Thursday Night Football |
| Falcons @ Colts | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Giants @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Commanders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Chargers | Sunday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Packers | Monday Night Football |