Quarterback Stats That Matter for Fantasy Football

We are pushing into August and further downhill towards the 2025 season.

With most fantasy drafts happening these final weeks before the season, we have a few more series to run before laying out the final positional draft plans.

This week, we will dive into the stats that matter the most for weekly fantasy output and that have the largest rollover year over year.

Highest Correlation to Weekly Fantasy Points Scored For Quarterbacks Over the Past 10 Years

We are looking at weekly scoring for quarterbacks over the past 10 years in our top down sample while comparing that to last season on its own.

When we are talking about the final line for fantasy output for passers, on a weekly level, it comes down to the impact of touchdown production firsthand.

Spoiler alert, this will be a common theme all week, because fantasy football is a game that is primarily determined by touchdown output, since it is the most weighted stat across the board.

If you analyze all of your fantasy matchups throughout the season, you find out that the winners posted more touchdowns.

Total touchdowns (passing and rushing scores combined) have by far the highest correlation to total fantasy points, which, of course, makes a ton of sense.

Chasing touchdowns overall is a tricky thing to do (more on that below), which is why we see so many different quarterbacks post viable starting weeks in fantasy compared to the other positions.

Over the timeframe of this sample, the top 12 weekly scorers at quarterback averaged 2.4 passing touchdowns per game, while the top six weekly scorers averaged 2.8 passing scores.

The top scorer overall in all of the weeks in the sample has averaged a robust 3.5 passing touchdowns per game.

Over this entire 175-week sample, just six of those QB1 overall scorers threw fewer than 2 touchdown passes, while none of them had 0 passing touchdowns.

You just are not going to pace the position in scoring unless you throw at least multiple touchdown passes in that given week.

While touchdowns themselves are harder to predict, we can use all of this information to our benefit to make more educated decisions on a weekly level, setting lineups and playing DFS.

We know that yardage has a direct correlation with touchdown output, so using high-yardage potential outcomes based on matchups or projected game scripts can put us in a position to play for touchdown upside more accurately.

When we get outside of passing touchdown-related stats, passing yards are the next influential category that carries a correlation of over 60%, followed by a dip to the next wave.

That is interesting because passing yardage overall continues to dwindle in ongoing league trends.

As passing yardage has become a more limited resource, it has become more valuable.

Those counting stats of touchdowns and yardage (results of a pass attempt) carry so much more of an influence on scoring than the raw volume of pass attempts, completions, or rate stats such as completion percentage and yards per pass attempt.

All of those latter rate stats mattered even less last season than they have over the whole sample.

Passing touchdown rate is the one efficiency-based metric that matters significantly because it is tied to the influence of touchdowns overall.

Overall passing volume does not have nearly as strong a correlation to output, nor does a high completion rate or yards per pass attempt.

Even though gamers always want to chase passing volume, it is not about the raw pass attempts a passer has. It is all about what he does with them.

Something that is often lost in the sauce when chasing volume is how efficiency impacts volume from a top down stance.

If you are worse with the pass attempts you do have, you are going to create more of them within your offense as opposed to reducing the volume when you have successful reps.

Being the Swami of Konami, do not be alarmed that rushing stats are at the bottom.

Although quarterback rushing remains at an all-time high, there are still too many non-runners per week in the field for that production to make strong correlations overall.

Even though quarterbacks accounted for their second-highest leaguewide rushing attempts in the history of the league, that was still just 16.0% of the total attempts.

This is why we still regularly highlight that we are not close to seeing the apex of where quarterback rushing can still go.

The influence of rushing output on weekly scoring also climbed a year ago.

So do not be mistaken…those quarterbacks that run matter.

Looking at the 18 individual QB1 scorers per week last season, those players averaged 11.8 rushing points.

The only games in which a player was the QB1 overall in a week with fewer than 4.4 rushing points (more than a passing touchdown in a standard league) were Kirk Cousins in Week 5, Joe Burrow in Week 10, and Jameis Winston in Week 13.

The top three scorers on average posted 7.3 rushing points per game, while the top six scorers averaged 6.6 per game.

After looking at the stats that impact weekly games, let’s move on to the stats that are the stickiest year over year and affect following season scoring the most.

Don't Miss Out on The Best Fantasy Football Coverage in the Business

Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.

From rankings to the best draft strategies, Sharp Football has everything you need to get ready for the fantasy season in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.

Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.

Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!

When we get outside of passing touchdown-related stats, passing yards are the next influential category that carries a correlation of over 60%, followed by a dip to the next wave.

That is interesting because passing yardage overall continues to dwindle in ongoing league trends.

As passing yardage has become a more limited resource, it has become more valuable.

Those counting stats of touchdowns and yardage (results of a pass attempt) carry so much more of an influence on scoring than the raw volume of pass attempts, completions, or rate stats such as completion percentage and yards per pass attempt.

All of those latter rate stats mattered even less last season than they have over the whole sample.

Passing touchdown rate is the one efficiency-based metric that matters significantly because it is tied to the influence of touchdowns overall.

Overall passing volume does not have nearly as strong a correlation to output, nor does a high completion rate or yards per pass attempt.

Even though gamers always want to chase passing volume, it is not about the raw pass attempts a passer has; it is all about what he does with them.

Something that is often lost in the sauce when chasing volume is how efficiency impacts volume from a top-down stance.

If you are worse with the pass attempts you do have, you are going to create more of them within your offense as opposed to reducing the volume when you have successful reps.

Being the Swami of Konami, do not be alarmed that rushing stats are at the bottom.

Although quarterback rushing remains at all-time highs, there are still too many non-runners per week in the field for that production to make strong correlations overall.

Even though quarterbacks accounted for their second-highest leaguewide rushing attempts in the history of the league, that was still just 16.0% of the total attempts.

This is why we still regularly highlight that we are not close to seeing the apex of where quarterback rushing can still go.

The influence of rushing output on weekly scoring also climbed a year ago.

So do not be mistaken… those quarterbacks that do run, matter.

Looking at the 18 individual QB1 scorers per week over the season, those players averaged 11.8 rushing points.

The only games in which a player was the QB1 overall in a week with fewer than 4.4 rushing points (more than a passing touchdown in a standard league) were Kirk Cousins in Week 5, Burrow in Week 10, and Jameis Winston in Week 13.

The top three scorers on average posted 7.3 rushing points per game, while the top six scorers averaged 6.6 per game.

After looking at the stats that impact weekly games, let’s move on to the stats that are the stickiest year over year and affect the following season scoring the most.

Year Over Year Correlation Categories for Quarterbacks

When looking at the stats that are the stickiest for quarterbacks year over year, we do not end up with many reliable stats.

Only three statistics here have a 50% correlation to the following season's output in those areas.

In a complete inverse of what we just talked about, rushing attempts and yardage per season have so much stability because we have more quarterbacks posting low rushing totals than not.

Those small numbers influence the correlation metrics year over year.

However, you can spot that the attempts per game drop in terms of stability.

That holds up as rushing attempts increase.

The same is true for the rate of pass attempts per game, which is one of the softest yearly correlations among the per-game metrics that are not touchdown-related.

As another reminder, volume (or lack thereof) is typically tied to inefficiency (or efficiency in limited volume).

This is the first post in this series this week, but I am going to spoil something right away relating to quarterbacks and the other positions.

That is fantasy scoring per game, and the season prior has the lowest amount of rollover for quarterbacks compared to the other positions.

I hypothesize that since quarterbacks are the most reliant on touchdown production to carry overall fantasy output, they are impacted the most by the natural variance of actual touchdown output.

When looking at last year on its own, fantasy points per game had their lowest year over year rollover over the past decade.

You will find throughout the week that touchdown production per game and season is extremely volatile above.

We have seen this play out regularly.

A quarterback massively out-kicks his expected touchdown rate, stacks a ton of passing scores, and then regresses to the mean the following season.

Since the NFL merger in 1970, there have been 167 seasons in which a quarterback has started at least eight games and posted a touchdown rate of 6.0% or higher.

Out of those seasons, just 18 of them matched their touchdown rate in the following season, while the other passers had an average decline in touchdown rate of -2.5%.

This upcoming season, we have five quarterbacks in that company in Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold.

We have spent time over the past few weeks highlighting nearly all of those players regarding potential regression this season.

That said, good and bad fantasy players are typically good or bad fantasy players in the future.

Fantasy points per season is among the most stable metrics.

You know who is good at fantasy football?

Players who have already been good at fantasy football.

We have already talked about efficiency-based metrics being unreliable year over year, but nearly anything efficiency-related carries such a low correlation that you should not overly stock them.

Efficiency-based metrics make up the bottom five metrics in terms of yearly instability and 10 of the worst 11 metrics.

The one stat down at the bottom that is not efficiency-based is rushing touchdowns per game, which was on the rise in stability last year, which I believe is tied to the increased output near the goal line for players such as Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen.

If you are looking at only 2024, nearly all of the rushing-related statistics showed an increase in reliability.

Circling back to efficiency, even things such as EPA per dropback and EPA per play are wholly unstable.

The one efficiency-based metric here that has a high correlation with yearly data is completion rating.

I have long been a subscriber to the idea that accuracy is not something that is learned at the NFL level and is a red flag for prospects who struggle in that department entering the league.

It is great to see that notion reinforced here, but we are also operating within a tighter perimeter of output, which makes it stickier overall.

What I mean by that is we can see a passer’s touchdown rate fluctuate significantly, but there are limitations as to how low we can reasonably expect completion rate to plummet or excel.

Especially in this era, passers are attempting many more passes near the line of scrimmage.

Of the 32 passers in 2024 to make eight or more starts, all of them outside of Anthony Richardson had a completion rate of 60% or higher.

Key Takeaways:

• Keep it simple. Year over year fantasy points are a signal for future stability. If a player has already been good, he is likely to be good again.
• As quarterback rushing continues to rise, rushing output continues to play a larger role in fantasy output and is gaining traction in reliability, carrying over year over year.
• Passing yardage has become more influential as passing yardage across the league continues to dip.
• Touchdowns (specifically passing touchdowns) matter the most for the quarterback position on a per-game level for fantasy scoring, but have low predictability on a seasonal level. Be wary of pocket passers coming off seasons with a spike in touchdown rate.
• Relying on touchdowns more for scoring output plays a significant role in the number of passers that provide multiple starting-caliber weeks throughout a season, compared to the other positions.
• Do not overweigh efficiency spikes in rate stats. Rate stats are more descriptive than predictive.