Fantasy Football Quarterback Tiers, 2025

One remaining obstacle we still face in the fantasy community, as both content providers and consumers, is understanding that rankings, projections, tiers, and average draft positions serve different purposes and are not interchangeable.

I penned an offseason lead covering projections and their application, which you can review here.

While those projections give us a range of season long production and have implications for listing players in a linear format (rankings), even when those full season numbers are accurate, they fail to capture the overall weekly impact and the pockets of production that are relevant to our weekly game of fantasy football.

There are very few players at each position that smash weekly throughout the fantasy season at the highest level, and we are hopeful to be in on the remainder of players when they strike the hottest.

That is where player tiers come in.

2025 Fantasy Football Rankings

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Many player tiers available are simply rankings divided into sections.

While the rankings are more focused on a probable tally of season long output for a week to week game, I prefer to structure my tiers based on how similarly players accrue their fantasy points and by player archetypes.

By doing this, I can identify actionable gaps in player pricing per tier, which in turn allows for arbitrage in fantasy drafts while also highlighting some longer-odds players who have more potential than initially perceived.

Arbitrage in fantasy football is driven strongly by how production is accrued, and the order of those players (rankings) is driven by the opportunities (on a player and team level) that each player receives.

Our projections are inherently going to be wrong on those projected opportunities often.

A multitude of factors influence team situations.

Game script, injuries to a player himself, injuries to surrounding teammates, ineffective play, player breakouts, and so on.

That is just the game through injuries, performance variance, and fluctuation.

Understanding how a player is used enables us to identify prospects to buy into the variance in his performance across opportunities.

If we are wrong on the opportunity projection, then a lower-tiered player could be an arbitrage opportunity.

While there is no direct overlap with the individual player rankings, the order of these tiers reflects how I prioritize drafting positions from an archetypal stance.

While that may be confusing for a player ranked highly on a linear list versus a specific tier he is in, I will do my best to incorporate detailed thoughts regarding draft capital in those events throughout the player breakdowns.

One final note: I will be updating and adding analysis to these tiers throughout the summer.

With that introduction to the methodology used, let's proceed to the actual player analysis.

Tier 1 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Josh Allen
• Jalen Hurts
• Lamar Jackson
• Jayden Daniels

We are opening things up with the players who have the highest odds of finishing as the QB1 in overall scoring.

That player has developed into one who, in recent seasons, has consistently produced above-average results through the air and on the ground.

You will not find many surprises in this tier compared to the average draft position of these options.

Gamers have come around to correctly diagnose that these dual-threat options are the players to invest your high-end draft capital if you are paying up at the position.

The last time that the QB1 in overall scoring averaged fewer than multiple rushing points per game was Peyton Manning in 2013.

Over the past six seasons, the QB1 has averaged 6.9 rushing points per game with a low of 3.5 per game.

On the other end, only one QB1 scorer in the 2000s has averaged fewer than 15 passing points per game (Josh Allen in 2023).

You need access to viable output in both departments to pace the position in fantasy points.

Josh Allen

Bye: Week 7

Fantasy Playoffs: @NE, @CLE, PHI

Allen has been as safe a bet to make when looking to compete for the best production at the position.

He has finished first or second in overall points at the position in five straight seasons, finishing as QB3, QB1, QB2, QB1, and QB2 in points per game since 2020.

Allen was excellent again last season, winning his first MVP Award.

Allen averaged only 233.2 passing yards per game (his fewest since 2019), but he made up ground in efficiency, ball protection, and rushing production.

Allen’s 7.7 yards per pass attempt were his highest since 2020, while his 12.2 yards per completion were his highest since his rookie season.

His 1.2% interception rate and 2.8% sack rate were career lows.

Allen posted a 5.8% touchdown rate as a passer, his fifth consecutive season with a touchdown rate of 5% or higher.

No other quarterback in the league can make that claim.

Allen also rushed for 531 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Buffalo has adopted their version of the “Tush Push,” which has ramped up Allen’s touchdown production on the ground.

He already had six or more rushing scores in each of his first five seasons in the league, but that has spiked to 27 rushing touchdowns over the past two years thanks to 11 one-yard rushing touchdowns, which is second in the NFL over the past two seasons.

Allen led the league in fantasy points scored in the red zone (168.7).

He has led the league in red zone fantasy points three times over the past four seasons and has not finished lower than second in that department in each of the past five years.

If there is one small sliver of shade to poke here, it is that Allen has been more dependent on his touchdown efficiency (both passing and rushing) as the passing volume for the Bills has decreased under Joe Brady.

Allen has been below 15 passing points per game in each of the past two seasons.

2024 was the first time since 2019 that he threw the ball fewer than 500 times.

Buffalo had a 56.3% dropback rate (25th), the lowest rate of Allen’s career.

Buffalo was 2% below pass rate expectations last season, the same rate they held in 2023 after Brady took over the offense (following a 5% over-expected performance before that point).

If that remains static, then Allen must sustain his lofty touchdown rates with both his arm and legs.

However, there is little doubt he is the best bet to lead the position on paper based on his performance to date.

Lamar Jackson

Bye: Week 7

Fantasy Playoffs: @CIN, NE, @GB

Jackson put together one of the best statistical seasons from a quarterback in 2024.

As a passer, Jackson led the league with an 8.6% touchdown rate, 8.8 yards per attempt, a 119.6 rating, and a 77.5 QBR.

That touchdown rate, rating, and QBR were the highest for a passer since 2020.

His 0.31 EPA per dropback was the best rate for a quarterback since 2019, which was also him.

Jackson threw a career-high 41 touchdown passes to just 4 interceptions.

If that wasn’t enough, he added 915 yards and 4 touchdowns rushing.

Jackson has taken off and reclaimed his MVP-level status the past two seasons under Todd Monken.

Under Monken, Jackson has been the best version of himself as a passer, which is a scary proposition.

He has been the QB3 and QB1 fantasy points per game the past two seasons with an increased passing efficiency.

Jackson has averaged 14.3 and 18.9 passing points per game the past two seasons after posting 13.1, 12.8, and 11.9 passing points per game over the 2020 to 2022 seasons.

While Jackson has been at his best under Monken, how much better can he be in 2025 compared to last year?

Can he even run that pure again as a passer?

We have to anticipate some regression here.

Jackson’s 8.6% touchdown rate is not something we can count on rolling over.

He threw 14.3 passing touchdowns over expectations, the most in the league.

61.4% (27 of 44) of his throws into the end zone resulted in touchdowns, the second-highest rate of the 2000s.

The league rate on those throws was 38.2%.

For added context, here is how Jackson has done on his throws into the end zone for his career.

Lamar Jackson Career End Zone Pass Attempts

Going further down the line, here are the quarterbacks with an 8.0% touchdown rate or higher in the 2000s.

I used Tom Brady’s 2009 season as the follow up since he missed nearly all of the 2008 season following his record-breaking 2007 season.

Most of the passers here still posted a high touchdown rate for league standards following their hyper-efficient seasons, so Jackson has that going for him.

We have discussed this before, but the word “regression” is not a complete boogeyman in this space and something we need to run away from.

Jackson can experience a dip in efficiency and remain among the league leaders at the position in 2025, but we should still anticipate a decline in touchdown output.

In 2019, he had a 9.0% touchdown rate.

Even holding a lofty 6.9% rate in 2020, Jackson threw 10 fewer touchdowns.

Jackson throwing fewer touchdowns is relevant within this tier because he does not have the same access to short-yardage rushing touchdowns as Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.

The Ravens do not use Jackson for their version of the Tush Push (subbing in Mark Andrews when they have run it) because Jackson is leaner than those quarterbacks.

The addition of Derrick Henry also reduced the necessity to use Jackson near the end zone.

Jackson did not even have a single rush inside the five-yard line last season while Henry soaked up 18 of those attempts.

Hurts had 18 while Allen had 10.

Jalen Hurts

Bye: Week 9

Fantasy Playoffs: LV, @WAS, @BUF

Hurts has finished as the QB6, QB1, QB2, and QB5 in points per game over the past four seasons.

It was another strong season for Hurts in 2024, despite hardly having his full cupboard of pass catchers for most of the season and throwing only 361 passes (only 20 more than Daniel Jones).

Hurts unlocked a few things under Kellen Moore.

The Eagles used motion on 50.8% of Hurts' dropbacks.

That was only in the middle of the league, but in 2023, the Eagles were 28th in pre-snap motion (28% of Hurts’ dropbacks).

That was significant in terms of results.

With the use of pre-snap motion, Hurts was second in the NFL in rating (116.6), completing 69.3% of his passes (10th) for 8.9 yards per pass attempt (2nd) and a 7.3% touchdown rate (5th).

He threw 13 touchdowns to 2 interceptions using motion.

Without pre-snap motion, Hurts was 17th in rating (91.0), completing 68.1% of his passes (5th) for 7.2 Y/A (19th) and only a 2.7% touchdown rate (31st).

No quarterback was pressured at a higher rate last season than Hurts (40.5% of dropbacks).

Some of that is his fault since he had the longest time to throw in the NFL (3.06 seconds from the snap).

18.8% of his pressures were credited to him holding the ball, which was 35th in the league.

But when pressured, Hurts only completed 46.5% of his passes (20th) for 5.2 Y/A (29th).

Any questions surrounding Hurts entering 2025 stem from him working with another coordinator after Moore took the head coaching job in New Orleans.

Hurts will be on his sixth offensive coordinator in the NFL under Kevin Patullo.

In college, Hurts had four different play callers.

Patullo has been with the Eagles through most of the run, so hopefully he can borrow from the best of those play callers to max out Hurts.

Patullo has been the passing game coordinator in Philadelphia since 2021.

Even if Patullo does not direct this passing game in the same fashion as Moore did, Hurts has added avenues for increased passing production through a healthier offense and the Eagles being pushed more in 2025.

A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert were on the field together for only 79 of Hurts' dropbacks in the regular season (18.1%).

Brown and Smith were on the field together for only 58.8%.

Just by fielding a complete roster, the Eagles can push the football more through the air.

We should also expect the team to be pushed more this season with a schedule adjustment.

The Eagles go from having the fourth-easiest schedule in 2024 to having the fourth-hardest schedule in 2025, the most significant swing for any team in the league.

The Eagles will play 10 games against 2024 playoff teams.

With that layout a year ago, the Eagles trailed for a league-low 134 snaps in the second half of games (24.5% of their second half snaps).

They trailed for 62 total plays in the fourth quarter all season.

In the first half of games, Hurts averaged 17.8 dropbacks per game, which was 14th in the league.

But in the second half of games, he averaged only 11.3 dropbacks per game, which was 36th.

Hurts ended up with 108 fewer dropbacks in the second half of games last year compared to 2023.

Hurts had 86 total dropbacks in the fourth quarter of last season.

In 2023, he had 139.

The Eagles will be run heavy compared to the league, but Hurts was coming off 538 pass attempts in 2023 compared to 361 last season.

If we're getting a version of Hurts pushing 500-plus pass attempts, you'll gladly take that paired with his rushing upside.

The Tush Push's survival into another season is also a significant factor in why Hurts is highly regarded in fantasy.

Hurts has double-digit rushing touchdowns in each of the past four seasons.

The only player with a longer streak is Derrick Henry.

Hurts has scored 32 touchdowns off the Tush Push, 59% of his career rushing touchdowns.

I noted earlier that Josh Allen has 11 one-yard touchdowns on the ground over the past two seasons, which is second in the league.

Well, Hurts has 22.

He only has one scrambling touchdown on the ground over the past two seasons.

Outside of the rushing touchdowns, Hurts raised his rushing attempts (4.2) and yardage per game (42.0 yards) on the ground in 2024 from the previous season despite playing 169 fewer snaps last year compared to 2023.

Jayden Daniels

Bye: Week 12

Fantasy Playoffs: @NYG, PHI, DAL

2024 was an exciting season for Washington based on the success of Jayden Daniels as a rookie.

Daniels ended up with a sensational rookie season, completing 69.0% of his passes (6th) for 7.4 Y/A (14th).

He threw 3,568 yards with 25 touchdowns to 9 interceptions.

On the ground, Daniels added 891 yards and 5 touchdowns.

Daniels opened his NFL career with a QB6 finish in points per game as a rookie (20.9).

That includes two games in which he played only 10 and 26 snaps.

In his complete games played (including the postseason), he averaged 23.3 fantasy points per game.

The strength of his fantasy output came via rushing.

Daniels averaged 7.4 rushing points per game, trailing only Jalen Hurts (9.8) and Anthony Richardson (7.6).

Daniels scrambled on a league-high 12.5% of his dropbacks, leading the league with 595 scramble yards (188 more than the next quarterback).

While Daniels did utilize his legs to anchor his fantasy output, his passing efficiency followed his collegiate profile. He was not wholly dependent on using his legs.

He became only the eighth quarterback to have over 700 rushing yards and still have 25 or more passing touchdowns in a season. None of the other seasons were by a rookie quarterback.

Daniels did run hot in terms of end zone passing success, nearly at the levels we covered with Lamar Jackson.

59.5% (22 of 37) of his throws into the end zone were touchdowns, second only to Jackson last season.

Not only that, but it was also the third-most efficient season in end zone success over the past decade.

However, the interesting component is that while Daniels did have luck in the touchdown department on those throws, he was at his touchdown expectation (+2.2) because he was nearly as unlucky in his teammates' ability to help him create touchdowns.

Daniels only had 3 passing touchdowns on throws that were run in by the pass catcher and not thrown into the end zone in 2024.

Only Trevor Lawrence (2) and Cooper Rush (1) had fewer. Neither played the entire season.

Washington stressed the need to add a playmaker with the football in his hands, which they accomplished by adding Deebo Samuel.

No matter what your thoughts are on Samuel as a fantasy producer himself, his addition to the offense does aid Daniels.

Daniels attempted 25.6% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, the seventh-highest rate in the league.

He was fifth in screen pass rate (12.9%) and seventh in slants (8.3%).

Despite that, 49.9% of his passing yardage came after the catch, which was 17th in the league.

His 5.4 yards after the catch per completion ranked 16th.

Washington's wide receivers averaged 4.5 yards after the catch, which was 15th.

Samuel was still a tackle breaker last year, forcing a missed tackle on 25 of his 93 touches.

Samuel averaged 8.3 yards after the catch per reception, which was seventh in the league.

There is some push and pull with Daniels coming back to the pack in terms of end zone success, but Samuel can aid his growth in production after the catch.

Washington also added a premier pass protector in Laremy Tunsil.

Tunsil did have 19 penalties, but he was still excellent in pass protection, allowing a 3.1% pressure rate (sixth best among tackles).

When Daniels was pressured as a rookie, he already averaged 7.2 Y/A, which was fifth in the league. However, he went from completing 75.8% of his passes (fifth when kept clean) to 46.4% when pressured (21st).

Perhaps the most interesting component for Daniels in 2025 is the expectations paired with a more demanding schedule.

He was one of the best values in fantasy last year, not only due to his favorable cost (QB12 in ADP) but also because he faced the most manageable schedule.

He is already more expensive in fantasy.

With Washington having had so much on-field success, they now face a more formidable challenge in 2025.

Washington, which had the top-ranked schedule last year in terms of how things played out, now projects to have the 28th-ranked passing schedule for this season.

Things are not pressing on paper early in the season for Washington.

They play the Giants, Raiders, and Falcons in three of the opening four games before things ramp up.

Washington ends the season with a tough run.

After their Week 12 bye, they draw the Broncos, Vikings, Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys.

Daniels only played four games last year in the regular season against pass defenses that ranked in the top 12 entering the matchup.

In those games, he completed 58.7% of his passes for 6.8 Y/A, throwing one or fewer touchdowns in three of those games.

That said, he also had a QB1 overall scoring week in one of those matchups, scoring 34.4 fantasy points against the Eagles.

He also posted 25.1 and 25 fantasy points in the final two playoff games against the Lions and Eagles.

His rushing output does give him added outs in tougher matchups.

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Tier 2 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Joe Burrow
• Patrick Mahomes

A mini tier here with what I view as the two best quarterbacks in the NFL, but they unfortunately do not offer the same rushing floor and ceiling as the tier above.

Both Burrow and Mahomes need to have lofty passing touchdown seasons to compete with the front end of the position.

Mahomes has shown us in recent seasons that there is fragility when paying a high cost for that archetype.

I write about this every summer in the ADP trends for the position, but more often than not, the most expensive pocket passer has been a bad bet to make with your draft capital, as we have a handful of options who run them down from the QB2 group every season.

Every year, we get a Sam Darnold or a Baker Mayfield breakout or bounce back for cheap who can produce a proxy of the front end passers at arbitrage.

These are the two players I would give the best odds of leading the league in passing touchdowns (Burrow is first in the books, while Mahomes is tied for fifth). I would give them a boost in leagues that reward 6-point passing touchdowns and SuperFLEX formats.

In 1QB formats, these are passers I am more likely to pass on at current cost for other positions unless they fall past ADP, in hopes of running hot and creating a proxy of their passing production from a cheaper passer who runs hot, or a combination of passers playing matchups.

Joe Burrow

Bye: Week 10

Fantasy Playoffs: BAL, @MIA, ARI

Burrow did his best to carry the Bengals and a lackluster defense last season, leading the NFL in completions (460), attempts (652), passing yards (4,918), and passing touchdowns (43).

Even with all of that going right for the box score, Burrow was still edged in fantasy points per game (21.9) by Josh Allen (22.3) and Lamar Jackson (25.3).

He added 201 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground, but the lack of premier rushing output makes Burrow more dependent on hyper-efficient passing production.

While all the counting stats were impressive and inflated by the frequent shootouts Cincinnati was involved in, Burrow made some significant underlying strides.

His 1.4% interception rate was his lowest since his rookie season.

He had a career-low 6.7% inaccuracy rate on his throws.

Although it was still right on the league average, Burrow was sacked on 20.8% of his pressures (18th), a career low.

Sack avoidance has been his longest ongoing bugaboo on an otherwise clean resume, but getting to the league’s base rate is a considerable development.

He has improved in that department in each of the past three seasons.

Since the Bengals drafted Burrow, they have been eighth in the NFL in points per drive without a sack (2.50) but have dropped to 16th in points per drive with a sack (1.03).

Last season, they scored a touchdown on 36% of their drives without a sack (5th) compared to 9.5% with a sack (17th).

Burrow did run hot in the touchdown department, especially to end the season.

He threw 3 or more touchdown passes in each of the final eight games of the fantasy regular season.

In the history of the NFL, there has only been one streak longer with 3 or more touchdown passes, which was Tom Brady in 2007.

Burrow threw 11.6 touchdowns over expectations, which was the third-most in the league.

His 6.6% touchdown rate was a career high.

Burrow plays in a loaded division full of competent defensive competition.

Still, even if the number of passing touchdowns decreases, the surrounding environment for the Bengals remains broadly similar to what it was at the end of the 2024 season.

The Cincinnati defense is full of question marks, and this offense is going to rely heavily on the passing game.

Burrow is one of only two passers to average over 35 pass attempts per game over the past three seasons (the other is also in this tier).

Paired with the top pass catcher in the league in Ja’Marr Chase and the extension of Tee Higgins, Burrow has access to front end passing volume and targets for that volume.

Chase is the main attraction, but don’t discount the importance of bringing Higgins back.

The team averaged 8.2 yards per passing play with Higgins on the field compared to 6.5 yards per passing play without him.

That is the difference between finishing fourth in the NFL over the entire season and finishing 27th.

Burrow completed 72.8% of his passes for 8.2 Y/A and a 7.2% touchdown rate with Higgins on the field (441 dropbacks) compared to completing 66.9% of his passes for 6.5 Y/A and a 5.6% touchdown rate with Higgins off the field (280 dropbacks).

Patrick Mahomes

Bye: Week 10

Fantasy Playoffs: LAC, @TEN, DEN

Mahomes is the best example of how perfect you have to be as a passer when you are not an elite rusher.

After finishing as a top-six scorer every season from 2018 to 2022, Mahomes has closed the past two years as QB14 and QB13 in points per game.

Mahomes set career lows in passing yards per game (245.5) and yards per pass attempt (6.8).

He threw 26 passing touchdowns over 16 games, matching a career low in 2019 when he played 14 games.

Mahomes threw 30.8% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage (only ahead of Tua Tagovailoa), his highest rate ever in a season.

Over the past decade, the only passers who qualified for the league’s rating with a higher rate of throws at or behind the line of scrimmage in a regular season were Jake Browning in 2023 (32.1%) and Alex Smith in 2020 (33.3%).

Only 26.3% of his throws were 10 or more yards further downfield (ahead of only newly added Gardner Minshew), his lowest career rate.

The state of the Kansas City offensive line was its worst since the Tampa Bay Super Bowl.

Mahomes took a career-high 36 sacks.

He was hit on 108 dropbacks this past season, the most in his career.

To work around the cap and reshape the offensive line, the team used a first-round pick on left tackle Josh Simmons while adding swing tackle Jaylon Moore in free agency.

They did lose veteran Joe Thuney as part of an attempt to save money and work on a potential extension for Trey Smith, who required the franchise tag.

For as lackluster as his top down stats look compared to his early career production, Mahomes closed the year strongly.

He threw 18 touchdowns to 2 interceptions over his final nine games.

Mahomes was QB2 in expected points per game from Week 9 on and delivered five QB1 scoring weeks.

We also have to consider that the passing game never operated as intended due to the numerous injuries suffered by their wide receivers.

Rashee Rice, Marquise Brown, and Xavier Worthy never played a game together as Brown missed the opening 14 games due to a shoulder injury, and Rice was lost for the season to a knee injury in Week 4.

They were forced to run their passing offense through 35-year-old Travis Kelce until Worthy gained traction late in the season.

As a result, Kansas City threw the ball to wide receivers 49.5% of the time last season, 29th in the league.

Rice is on track to be ready for training camp, Brown was retained on a one-year contract, and Worthis y building on a solid end to his rookie season.

With a skeptical backfield depth chart, we should expect the Chiefs to transition towards a reemphasis on pushing the ball downfield and running the offense through the wide receivers.

In the games after Brown’s return, Kansas City played 11 personnel on 55.7% and 62.8% of their snaps after having a 45.4% rate before Brown’s return.

Before Brown's return, they had only run 11 personnel on more than 55.7% of their plays twice all season, the last time with a higher rate coming in Week 4.

With all three planning to be ready to open this season, we should expect the Chiefs to run more 3WR sets in 2025.

And we already know they are going to throw it a ton, regardless.

Mahomes has had 34.6 pass attempts or more per game in eight straight seasons.

The Chiefs threw the ball 6% more often than pass rate expectations again in 2024. They have been above expectations every year with Mahomes as their quarterback.

They have been top 10 in dropback rate every one of those seasons.

The question is, is all of that enough to get Mahomes back into competition as a front end scorer, or is he still living off early-career cache in the fantasy community and the fact that he is still regarded as the best real-life quarterback in the league?

Perhaps we will never see him reclaim that elite success without being attached to the apex careers of Tyreek Hill and Kelce.

That is why it still comes down to cost for Mahomes.

You will see him slide in some drafts past this point within the position.

In those cases, I am willing to give Mahomes the benefit of the doubt one more time, based on my belief that this team will focus more on using their wide receivers this season and the expectation that this team will still be one of the pass heaviest units in the NFL.

Tier 3 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Kyler Murray
• Brock Purdy
• Drake Maye
• Justin Fields
• Dak Prescott

This season, we have what I view as a clear top end group at the position, a small pair of decorated passers, and then a wide net of players who do not have a significant separation from each other as potential back end QB1 types.

In 1QB drafts this season, I genuinely believe that if you get frozen out of the top tier, you should be creating pairings from the following two tiers based on preference, schedule, and, of course, cost.

Unless Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes slides, I will let the position come to me naturally if I'm not paying up for a top option.

These are the players I am targeting for value adds, but you do not need to be overly aggressive in targeting them, either, because QB7 through roughly QB20 could be considered one larger tier in itself.

Kyler Murray

Bye: Week 8

Fantasy Playoffs: @HOU, ATL, @CIN

Murray is alluring from an archetypal stance, as he possesses the tools we want to chase for upside at the position.

Murray has not been bad, but he has been trending in the wrong direction, ending as QB12, QB5, QB4, QB9, QB10, and QB14 in points per game over his six seasons.

He has not been able to get over the hump as a high-caliber fantasy option because he does not do enough as a passer or as a rusher compared to the best of both of those areas.

He is sort of in limbo as a fantasy option right now because he ran less in 2024 while still operating as a pedestrian passer.

The 2024 season was a Rorschach test for Murray.

He completed 68.8% of his passes for 7.1 yards per pass attempt with a 3.9% touchdown rate.

All of those were highs since 2021.

He had the highest success rate (48.4%) of his career while posting the lowest rate of plays that lost 1.0 EPA or worse (14.6%).

He played every game for the first time since 2020.

While he played better football than in recent seasons, there was also a lack of upside.

He finished 14th in EPA per dropback (0.09) and 27th in the rate of dropbacks that resulted in 1.0 EPA or more (21.6%).

Downfield passing and third down performance were again thorns in Murray's side.

On throws 10 or more yards downfield, Murray was 22nd in rating (82.3), completing 47.8% of those passes (21st).

Over the past three seasons, Murray has completed 44.3% of his throws 10 or more yards downfield, which is 29th in the league.

On throws 20 or more yards downfield, Murray was 33rd in rating (57.2).

Over the past three seasons, Murray has completed 30.8% of his throws 20 or more yards downfield, which is 30th in the league.

This passing game struggled the most when the opponents knew they had to throw the ball.

On third downs, Murray completed 59.6% of his passes (20th).

Long down and distances were an Achilles heel for this passing game.

Murray only had 7 passing conversions on third and long (needing 7 or more yards) over 17 games.

That was the same number as Michael Penix (3 starts) and Dak Prescott (8 starts). He only had one more than Deshaun Watson (7 starts).

Murray was 28th in rating in the fourth quarter (77.2).

He had a 1.4% touchdown rate in the fourth quarter last season, the lowest of all qualifying passers.

Trailing in the fourth quarter, he dipped to a 76.4 rating and a 0.9% touchdown rate.

He has not had a touchdown rate of 4% or higher in each of the past three seasons.

Some of that falls on the design of this passing game when it is forced to play out of structure, but we need more out of Murray as a passer.

If you are willing to give him another pass, he did run into a tougher draw last season.

Murray ended up facing the third-hardest schedule last season, facing 11 opponents in the front half of the fewest passing points allowed entering his matchup.

This upcoming season, Murray moves into the middle of the pack, having our 14th-ranked schedule in terms of softness.

We should have an idea if Murray has made any jump to open the season, as Arizona has games against the Saints, Panthers, 49ers, and Titans before his Week 8 bye.

His playoff schedule also has appeal, with the Falcons and Bengals in Weeks 16 and 17.

We would like to see Murray run more than he did last year, however.

That was supposed to be the “get out of jail for free” card in his game for when those tougher matchups pop up since his passing output has been uninspiring.

Murray was fourth in rushing yards (572) among quarterbacks, but his output was inconsistent based on chunk runs.

He rushed 4.6 times per game, the fewest of his career.

His 6.7% scrambling rate was the second-highest rate of his career, but the designed rushing declined.

There was a quote from Brian Schottenheimer, who had just hired Klayton Adams (Dallas' new offensive coordinator) from Arizona, stating that Murray “never really wanted to run” despite having achieved so much success on designed runs.

Murray rushed for a league high 8.6 yards per designed rush, but his 1.5 designed runs per game were a career low.

In 2023, that number was 2.8 per game, while he had averaged 3.2 designed runs per game for his career entering last season.

He has stated that he wants to be better rushing in 2025 but framed that around generating off-script plays.

Hopefully, this offense gets him using his legs more frequently in the designed department to offer more consistent upside.

Brock Purdy

Bye: Week 14

Fantasy Playoffs: TEN, @IND, CHI

Purdy experienced some natural regression last season, but he still had a strong year during which he demonstrated his ability to produce in this system, regardless of who was available each week.

Purdy ended his third season with 8.5 yards per pass attempt (third) and fifth in EPA per dropback (0.17).

He ranked fourth in success rate (49.8%).

That happened in a season in which the 49ers ran 57 total plays with Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle all on the field together.

And that's not even considering the offensive line injuries.

Trent Williams missed a career-high 7 games last season.

Despite all of that, Purdy still ranked QB10 in points per game (17.8).

Purdy did have a career-high 2.6% interception rate (26th in the league) while completing a career-low 65.9% of his passes (17th).

He was always going to struggle to sustain the 7.6% and 7% touchdown rates he posted in his first two seasons. That number came down to 4.4% last season.

Only 31.4% of Purdy’s throws into the end zone last season resulted in a touchdown after a 66.7% rate in 2022 and 57.1% in 2023.

Purdy threw 4.7 touchdowns below expectations. Only Daniel Jones and Geno Smith were worse.

He may not get back to the lofty 2022 and 2023 touchdown rates, but Purdy should be a solid bounce back candidate attached to a healthier offense in 2025.

With all the injuries to the San Francisco skill players, McCaffrey had the most significant impact.

Without McCaffrey for nearly the entire season, teams played more coverage than ever against the 49ers.

Only 49% of Purdy’s dropbacks came with the middle of the field closed (single high safeties) after 59.9% and 60.5% during his first two years in the league.

Despite that, Purdy was still one of the best downfield passers in the league.

He completed a league-high 57.9% of his passes on throws 10 or more yards downfield (the league rate was 48.5%).

Purdy also used his legs more in 2024.

He added 4.2 rushing points per game after averaging 1.7 points per game in 2023 and 0.8 points per game in 2022.

On top of everything, the 49ers ultimately faced the fifth-hardest schedule in the league.

They have our most manageable schedule in 2025, jumping to the No. 1 easiest passing schedule.

They play 10 games against opponents with a win total of 7.5 or less, and no teams with a win total of 11 games or higher.

Resetting the table in 2025, this team is projected to be the eighth-highest scoring offense, according to current Vegas lines.

While I am targeting Purdy in many leagues where I miss out on an early quarterback, he should still come with expectations that he is more of a mid-to-back-end QB1, rather than a league lifter.

Over 36 career starts, Purdy has only two top-three scoring weeks and one 30-point game.

Drake Maye

Bye: Week 14

Fantasy Playoffs: BUF, @BAL, @NYJ

Taking over as the starter in Week 6, Maye completed 67% of his passes (11th) for 6.8 yards per pass attempt (24th) with a 4.5% touchdown rate (18th) from that point through the remainder of the season.

Maye’s top down numbers as a rookie don’t stand out as much compared to the rookie breakouts we've been spoiled with in recent seasons, but he more than passed the eye and smell test in his initial sample in the NFL.

Especially within the context of what this offense was working with.

Maye has been my favorite early quarterback target when passing on the front end options in drafts.

Even with his limited efficiency, Maye was the QB7 in fantasy points scored in his full games as a rookie.

His expected 18.1 points per game over that stretch were good for QB10, which is on par with his projection on my end.

I also believe there is a larger upside here because of the moving parts with New England.

The team has three new starters on the offensive line, which had massive issues in 2024.

They ended the season ranking 31st in ESPN’s pass block win rate (51%).

At Pro Football Focus, they were 31st in pass blocking grade.

From a clean pocket during his time as a starter, Maye was 17th in EPA per dropback, a few spots higher than rookie of the year Jayden Daniels.

The Patriots initiated a transition to upgrade their unit up front by signing veterans Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradbury while using the No. 4 overall pick on tackle Will Campbell.

The tackle spots were the most significant areas of need, something they needed to address.

Demontrey Jacobs played the most snaps at right tackle last season (686), allowing an 8.7% pressure rate. That ranked 86th among tackles.

Moses only allowed a 3.4% pressure rate, which was 10th.

Campbell will slide in immediately at left tackle.

While a rookie tackle is no guarantee for success, there is a low bar to clear for Campbell to be an improvement from a year ago.

After appearing in 11 games with New England in 2023 (8 starts), Vederian Lowe played 14 games last season, starting 13 at left tackle.

He allowed a 6.6% pressure rate (71st) with 5 sacks.

Maye will also have an improved set of pass catchers in Stefon Diggs, Kyle Williams, and TreVeyon Henderson.

In 2024, New England wide receivers caught a combined 161 receptions (28th) for a league-low 1,723 yards and 10 touchdowns (tied for the second fewest).

Diggs will be 32 this November, coming off a torn ACL at the end of October last year.

That is not the most appealing layout, but Diggs is on track to be available for training camp, having played well for Houston in 2024 before his injury.

Before his injury, Diggs was averaging 5.9 receptions for 62.0 yards per game.

Diggs played a career-high 46.2% of his snaps from the slot with Houston, while his 8.7 air yards per target were his lowest since 2018.

However, he performed better when he moved back outside, which occurred after Nico Collins suffered a hamstring injury early in the season.

Diggs averaged only 1.33 yards per route from the slot compared to 2.42 yards per route outside with the Texans.

With New England, he should be pushed outside more with DeMario Douglas inside in 11 personnel.

The arrow has been pointing upward for Williams throughout the entire offseason.

Creating after the catch in college, Williams averaged 8.4 yards after the catch per reception (third in this class) and forced a missed tackle on 30% of his receptions (8th).

Only 14.9% of his targets were at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Williams faced man coverage on 51.3% of his routes, where he posted 4.39 yards per route, second in this class.

Henderson averaged 11.1 yards per catch on his 77 collegiate receptions while being considered one of the better backs in pass protection.

We should also consider the return of Josh McDaniels as a potential upgrade.

Maye also comes with some rushing upside.

He added 409 rushing yards after taking over as the starter, which trailed only Jayden Daniels (564), Lamar Jackson (489), and Jalen Hurts (467) during that stretch.

Even in his limited sample, Maye was second among quarterbacks with 407 yards scrambling.

Justin Fields

Bye: Week 9

Fantasy Playoffs: @JAX, @NO, NE

Getting another shot as a starter, Fields is back on the board as a floor-based fantasy option with added upside through his rushing ability.

While Fields has his shortcomings and the Jets can move on from him after this season, there is little threat of Fields getting jumped on the depth chart in 2025.

With his rushing ability, Fields immediately becomes a viable fantasy option, offering a usable floor and upside.

Fields was the QB6 and QB13 in points per game in his final two full seasons as a starter with Chicago, and he was QB8 in points per game with Pittsburgh before being benched last season.

Fields is one of the few old-school “Konami” quarterbacks who have a floor through rushing but are suspect passers.

There were some small strides made with Fields as a passer before his benching in Pittsburgh.

Before giving way to Russell Wilson, Fields completed a career-high 65.8% of his passes, as Pittsburgh had him throw to the short area of the field more than in Chicago.

Fields averaged a career-low 7.8 air yards per pass attempt.

The Jets are ushering in a new regime under Aaron Glenn and offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand.

We do not have a sample of Engstrand calling plays in the NFL, but he comes over from Detroit, where he served as the passing coordinator under Ben Johnson.

The hope is that Engstrand can continue to develop the quick game and short-area passing that has held Fields back to this point.

If Engstrand can squeeze the most out of Fields to this point as a passer, the Jets have our third-easiest passing schedule.

Playoff matchups against Jacksonville and New Orleans could prove favorable when we get to that point.

At worst, Fields still has plenty of weekly rushing to lean on.

It is no surprise that this staff saw something to take a shot at working with based on their time facing Fields in Chicago.

Against Glenn’s Detroit defenses, Fields used his legs heavily, rushing for 90 yards per game over five meetings.

He scrambled on 9.7% of his dropbacks last season, which was third behind Jayden Daniels (12.5%) and Drake Maye (10.8%).

That allowed him to finish as QB4 in fantasy points per dropback (0.62) behind Lamar Jackson (0.82), Jalen Hurts (0.75), and Josh Allen (0.70).

The rub with fully leaning on that statistic is that Fields also does not drop back a ton.

The Jets also were a pass heavy team under Aaron Rodgers.

They had a 65.8% dropback rate (3rd in the league) and were 3% over pass rate expectation.

Since entering the league, the teams Fields has been on have a 54.1% dropback rate with him on the field.

He is 29th in dropbacks per game (28.9) since joining the league.

Dak Prescott

Bye: Week 10

Fantasy Playoffs: MIN, LAC, @WAS

Prescott suffered a torn hamstring during the eighth game of the year, which forced him to miss the remainder of the season.

Dallas was only 3-5 at that point and heading toward a disappointing outcome in 2024, regardless of Prescott’s availability.

Before the injury, Prescott was on a career-low 3.8% touchdown rate, and his 6.9 yards per pass attempt were his fewest in a season since 2017.

Prescott was one of my largest avoids at the position last year, based on expected touchdown regression, strength of schedule, and pass catching talent.

However, I believe that things overcorrected on that front, and he is now one of the more appealing pocket passers this season.

Prescott was a top-eight scorer in points per game in four of five seasons before last year.

The addition of George Pickens is an upgrade and clean fit with CeeDee Lamb, while Dallas can be one of the pass heaviest teams in the league.

Lamb has plenty of targets to share.

He missed two games and still had 73 more targets than the next closest wide receiver on the roster, accounting for 32.3% of the Dallas targets when he was on the field.

Pickens is being inserted in a better top down offense with improved quarterback play, yet is carrying roughly the exact fantasy cost as last year.

To this point in his career, Pickens has averaged over 15.0 yards per reception every year, with his targets coming from Kenny Pickett (129), Russell Wilson (58), Mitch Trubisky (46), Justin Fields (45), and Mason Rudolph (15).

15.4% of his career targets have been inaccurate.

The only receivers with a higher off-target rate with as many targets over that span are Diontae Johnson (17.9%), Amari Cooper (15.9%), Davante Adams (15.9%), and D.J. Moore (15.5%).

Since entering the NFL, Prescott has been seventh in accuracy rate when throwing to wide receivers.

Even if Pickens remains a field stretcher and dependent on big plays, this is a fit and an upgrade for all parties.

Since Pickens entered the league, 28.3% of his career targets have been 20 or more yards downfield.

No player has a higher rate with as many targets as Pickens over the span.

Brian Schottenheimer has changed his stripes some since his early days.

In his past three seasons as a coordinator, his teams have ranked 4th, 9th, and 10th in dropbacks.

Pickens has been on teams that were 14th, 26th, and 31st since entering the league.

Prescott has been in the top 10 in overall pass attempts per game in five of the past six seasons, a trend that doesn’t appear to be changing, given the current state of the backfield and the strengths of the offense.

Don’t dismiss the addition of Jaydon Blue helping Prescott in this passing game, either.

Blue caught 42 passes for 368 yards and 6 touchdowns in his final season in college.

He was targeted on 25.1% of his routes in the passing game, second in this class.

His 1.58 yards per route run were third.

Blue was not catching baseline checkdowns, either.

He lined up in the slot on a class-high 16.2% of his routes.

The downside is that Prescott will turn 32 this July, and the severity of his hamstring injury may be the final nail in his dwindling rushing output.

Prescott has rushed for 1.7 points per game over the past four seasons after averaging 4.2 per game over his first five seasons.

While the weaponry is improved and the passing volume should remain high, Dallas does have the 25th-ranked passing schedule to curb some of the excitement.

After Week 11, Dallas runs into a potential gauntlet against the Chiefs, Lions, Vikings, and Chargers.

A lot can change by that point of the season, but all of those defenses were in the top 12 in passing points allowed per attempt in 2024.

Tier 4 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Bo Nix
• Jared Goff
• Baker Mayfield
• Tua Tagovailoa
• Jordan Love
• Caleb Williams
• Justin Herbert
• C.J. Stroud
• Trevor Lawrence
• Matthew Stafford

I want to reiterate that while I am monitoring the names in the tier above, while we move through drafts, I am more than comfortable continuing to wait if those players are not at the price points I am looking for.

The secondary quarterback market is large and flat this season, and we have plenty of quality names here capable of flirting with QB1 production, allowing us to build a combination of players to play matchups from this group.

Bo Nix

Bye: Week 12

Fantasy Playoffs: GB, JAX, @KC

Nix ended a productive rookie year by throwing 29 touchdowns with 12 interceptions, adding 430 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns.

He capped a strong rookie season by completing over 70% of his passes in each of the final three games and throwing multiple passing touchdowns in seven of the final eight games.

Sean Payton targeted Nix to mold him into a proxy of his new version of Drew Brees with athleticism, and he set that plan in motion in year one.

There was an emphasis on having Nix get rid of the football.

28.7% of his throws were at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Only Patrick Mahomes (30.8%) and Tua Tagovailoa (31.1%) had a higher rate.

Nix led the NFL with 7 passing touchdowns on those throws at or behind the line.

When Nix got rid of the football within 2.5 seconds of the snap, he was 10th in rating (103.9), throwing 15 touchdowns and 1 interception.

His 5.6% touchdown rate on those throws was ninth in the league.

Some rookie season warts cropped up when he was forced to hold the football.

When holding the ball for over 2.5 seconds, Nix dipped to 21st in rating (84.1), throwing 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.

His 4.7% touchdown rate on those throws dipped to 20th in the league, while his 3.7% interception rate was 24th.

Despite the quality season based on expectations, Nix was more of a floor based fantasy option, which makes his rich ADP this offseason challenging for me to pay up for, given the depth of the position.

Nix was QB15 in points per dropback (0.50), which is where I have him ranked, and Denver has a strong defense that has invested in an improved running game to limit a high volume of passing.

Nix also failed to punch above his weight class as a rookie, a challenge that will be exacerbated by Denver's more demanding schedule in 2025.

He had eight games last season against pass defenses in the front of the league before his Week 18 matchup against the Kansas City backups.

In those games against those opponents, he averaged QB18 in weekly scoring (14.5 points per game) with a high week as QB10.

He logged only two weeks higher than QB7 before Week 18, both of which came in identifiable matchups against Carolina and Atlanta.

This issue arose when Denver reached the playoffs and struggled against the Bills.

In that game, Nix completed 13 of 22 passes for 6.5 yards per attempt.

This season, Denver has the 26th-ranked passing schedule.

I am not down on Nix building on his rookie season and continuing an ascension.

One element that is strongly in his favor is that he gets to work in the same system as last year, something he did not do in college, as he bounced around from one to another.

This is the first time since high school that Nix has had the same head coach and play caller in back to back seasons. Denver also has the same quarterback coach as last year.

However, I don't love his cost, as I would prefer more insulation and don’t see a wide gap between him and many players in this tier. At the same time, several players in the tier above are often drafted after him.

The good news in that regard is that if you are grabbing Nix or he slides in a draft, his opening schedule is the softest part.

The Broncos draw the Titans, Colts, and Bengals in three of their opening four games.

Nix also comes with scattershot mobility, which can help him escape binds.

He was not a consistent week to week runner, but did end up with 430 yards rushing (QB8) and a 7.8% scramble rate (QB10).

Jared Goff

Bye: Week 8

Fantasy Playoffs: @LAR, PIT, @MIN

Goff is coming off the best season of his career.

He set career marks in completing 72.4% of his passes, 37 passing touchdowns, and 8.6 yards per pass attempt.

Goff led the NFL in EPA dropback on third and fourth downs (0.48).

Goff even had his best season under pressure, which was the constant hole in his game.

When pressured last year, Goff had career marks across the board, completing 53.4% of his passes (9th) for 6.8 Y/A (9th).

And if you aren’t going to disrupt Goff and this passing game, good luck.

Goff completed a league-high 79.5% of his passes from a clean pocket for 9.3 Y/A (4th) and a 7.7% touchdown rate (3rd).

Ben Johnson put Goff in spots to harness the best of his abilities and those of his skill players.

Goff led the league in dropbacks from under center (55.6%) and play action (38%).

60.2% of his dropbacks came with pre-snap motion, which was sixth in the league.

The questions for this passing game will center around the loss of Johnson this offseason.

Detroit will have John Morton as offensive coordinator this season.

He was an assistant with the Detroit Lions in 2022 and served as the Broncos' passing game coordinator for the past two seasons under Sean Payton.

Up front, the Lions lost center Frank Ragnow to retirement while Kevin Zeitler left in free agency.

They selected Tate Ratledge in the second round to play center.

Last year’s sixth-round pick, Christian Mahogany, will be starting at left guard.

He appeared for 75 snaps, making one start as a rookie.

Right guard Graham Glasgow will turn 33 this July and is coming off a down season.

According to Pro Football Focus, he ranked 57th in overall grade at his position, allowing a 7.1% pressure rate, which ranked 85th out of 96 guards who played 100 or more snaps.

It is hard to quantify the impact of losing Johnson as coordinator and the shake up on the offensive line will have, but they are added variables.

The issue you run into when paying up for Goff is that we are paying up for a pocket passer coming off a career season.

He and this offense are set for some regression.

The Lions scored 18 touchdowns above expectations last season.

Goff was fourth in touchdowns thrown over expectations (7.4).

A large part of that was due to his playmakers creating scores on their own to a high degree.

Goff threw a league-high 22 passing touchdowns on throws that did not travel into the end zone, which made up 59.5% of his touchdowns.

The league average on those throws is 41.2%.

Goff had a 4.4% touchdown rate on his throws outside of the end zone, which would have been better than 16 quarterbacks who qualified for the league’s passer rating on all of their pass attempts.

The league touchdown rate on those throws was 2.1%.

Goff’s career rate on those throws entering last season was 2.5%.

Only one quarterback has thrown 20 or more touchdowns that were run into the end zone by his teammates in back to back seasons: Drew Brees from 2011 to 2013.

Last season, Goff was a primary target when shopping in the QB2 area of drafts because of the Detroit schedule.

That also changes this season and is a spot for regression.

Their first six opponents all won nine or more games in the previous season.

The playoff schedule offers some shootout potential with the Rams and Vikings, but those defenses are also among the best in the league on paper entering the season, with a matchup with the Steelers in the middle.

Those components do add some variables in the mix for letdown, but the surrounding core of skill players surrounding Goff is arguably the best in the league.

Amon–Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery are as good as it gets to insulate things from bottoming out.

Baker Mayfield

Bye: Week 9

Fantasy Playoffs: ATL, @CAR, @MIA

Mayfield had the best season of his career, setting career marks in completions (407), attempts (570), completion rate (71.4%), yards (4,500), and touchdowns (41).

Mayfield threw 12.2 passing touchdowns over performance expectations in 2024, second in the league.

He had a career-high touchdown rate of 7.2%.

His previous career high was 5.6%, which came in 2018, his first year in the league.

His touchdown rate in his first season with Tampa Bay was 4.9%.

His 49.4% success rate and 0.17 EPA per dropback were the best of his career.

In his first (and only) season with Liam Coen, there was a more significant emphasis on the short passing game.

After averaging 8.6 air yards per throw in 2023 under Dave Canales, Mayfield averaged 7.0 air yards per pass last season.

His average time to throw was 2.62 seconds from the snap, his fastest since his rookie season.

That area is where there was a divide with Mayfield as a passer last year, similar to Bo Nix.

When he threw the ball within 2.5 seconds from the snap, Mayfield completed 77.8% of his passes with 27 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

When he held the ball longer than that, he completed 63% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

With Coen taking the head coaching job in Jacksonville, Mayfield will again be working with a new offensive coordinator.

This will be the ninth different coordinator Mayfield has had in the NFL.

He has bounced around a bit, but only once in his career has Mayfield had the same play caller in back to back seasons in the NFL.

New coordinator Josh Grizzard was with Tampa Bay last season as the passing game coordinator, so the hope is that he still incorporates the components that led to success last year.

On top of that, Mayfield also set a career high with 55.8 rushing points.

His previous high was 32.1 in 2019.

Mayfield rushed for 378 yards, over 200 more than any previous season.

Mayfield’s layout is similar to what I broke down with Goff.

We are paying for a career year from a pocket passer who is due for regression amidst a coordinator change but paired with an appealing set of skill players to mitigate regression.

The Tampa Bay skill players do have some added question marks compared to the Detroit group, which is why I have Mayfield just a tick below Goff.

The one thing Mayfield has going for him is a more appealing playoff schedule, but you have to get through a rough front of the schedule to reach it.

The Bucs open the year in a good spot against the Falcons, but then they face the Texans, Jets, Eagles, Seahawks, 49ers, and Lions over their next six games.

Tua Tagovailoa

Bye: Week 12

Fantasy Playoffs: @PIT, CIN, TB

Miami’s success last season was tied to the availability of Tua Tagovailoa.

The Dolphins went 6-5 in Tagovailoa’s starts and 2-4 without him.

With Tagovailoa on the field, Miami averaged 5.5 yards per play compared to 4.5 yards per play without him.

That was the difference between 14th in the NFL and dead last.

With Tagovailoa on the field, Miami converted 44.4% of its third downs, seventh in the league.

Without him, they converted a league-low 22.1% of their third downs.

While they performed better with Tagovailoa on the field last season, the passing attack struggled to get the ball down the field, an area where this passing game has regressed under Mike McDaniel.

Tua Tagovailoa Target Distribution Under Mike McDaniel

Tagovailoa attempted a league-high 31.1% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage.

He attempted only 27.1% of his passes 10 or more yards downfield, ranking 34th in the league.

A league-low 7% of his throws went 20 or more yards downfield last season.

Miami had a league-low 3 passing touchdowns from outside the red zone last year compared to 10 in 2022 (7th) and 13 in 2023 (2nd).

McDaniel broke this down in greater detail earlier this summer.

Injuries and the state of this offensive line have contributed to those declining rates, which have been steady in the past three seasons.

Everything that needs to rebound revolves around this offensive line being better in 2025.

This unit was again at the heart of the primary issues for the offense.

Miami ended the year ranking 28th in ESPN’s pass block win rate metric (56%) and 26th in run block win rate (70%).

At Pro Football Focus, they ranked 20th in team pass blocking grade and 27th in run blocking grade.

This team struggled to keep anyone on the field up front.

Miami’s most frequently used combination across the line was on the field for 35.7% of their offensive snaps.

The subpar play up front impacted Miami’s ability to punish teams for playing shell coverage against their speedy receiving unit in the run game, reducing the passing game to a dink-and-dunk operation.

No team faced a higher rate of two-high safeties than Miami did last year, at 53.1% of their dropbacks.

They could not make those defenses pay for that in the run game.

Their running backs averaged only 1.06 yards before contact (28th).

That was the driver for the compressed passing game and lack of explosive plays.

Tyreek Hill averaged 11.8 yards per catch last season after 14.4 and 15.1 yards per catch in his first two seasons with Miami.

He had only 3 receptions of 30 or more yards after 23 in his first two years with the team.

After catching 25 and 29 passes for gains of 20-plus yards in his first two seasons with the team, he had just 13 of those catches last season.

Like Hill, Jaylen Waddle was void of big plays.

He averaged 12.8 yards per catch in 2024 after rates of 18.1 and 14.1 yards in the previous two seasons.

Only 9.6% of Waddle’s targets came on throws 20 or more yards downfield after rates of 15.4% and 12.5% his first two seasons in McDaniel's offense.

This all had a direct relationship with the increased production from Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane as pass catchers.

10 of Miami’s 2025 opponents were in the top half of the league in single high coverage rate last year. Will those opponents play that way against Miami?

The line remains a question mark heading into 2025.

The Dolphins did improve on paper on the interior, adding James Daniels in free agency and Jonah Savaiinaea in the second round of the draft.

With the return of Austin Jackson (who missed nine games) and Aaron Brewer at center, I do believe this team will run the football better than they did in 2024.

Their left tackle spot is more of a question with the retirement of Terron Armstead.

Armstead missed multiple games every year with the Dolphins, but he was still at the top of the position when he was available.

Armstead was fourth in overall grade per Pro Football Focus among qualifying tackles last season.

He only allowed a 3.2% pressure rate (8th).

With Armstead on the field over the past three years, Tagovailoa averaged 8.3 yards per pass attempt with a 5.6% touchdown rate, 4.6% sack rate, and 106.8 rating.

With Armstead absent, Tagovailoa has averaged 7.7 Y/A, a 4.8% touchdown rate, a 6.5% sack rate, and a 92.7 rating.

Miami lost swing tackle Kendall Lamm in free agency, pushing Patrick Paul into a starting spot.

Paul allowed a 6.6% pressure rate (68th among tackles) and finished 82nd out of 85 qualifying tackles in overall grade per Pro Football Focus.

Better fortune in the health department can aid a rebound for this unit, but we still have to handle Tagovailoa as a QB2 based on his fantasy output and injury history.

He has yet to finish higher than QB12 in points per game in any season.

He QB13 points per game returning to the lineup in Week 8 through Week 16 last season.

After missing another six games with concussion issues, Tua has started every game in just one of his five years in the league.

Jordan Love

Bye: Week 5

Fantasy Playoffs: @DEN, @CHI, BAL

During an up and down season plagued by multiple injuries, Love dropped to QB19 in points per game (15.6) after ranking QB6 in 2023 (18.8).

He suffered an MCL sprain at the end of the Week 1 game against the Eagles, which sidelined him for two weeks.

He then suffered a groin injury that forced him out of Week 8.

In Week 18, an elbow sprain removed him from the game.

The Packers also had an approach that made Love resemble Russell Wilson.

When the Packers did throw, Love took layups or threw the rock downfield.

Love threw the ball at the intermediate levels only 16.9% of the time (23rd) and threw deep 16.0%, the second-highest rate in the league behind Anthony Richardson (22.7%).

As a result, his 63.1% completion rate was 29th in the league.

However, due to the types of throws he was making, his expected completion rate was 64.6%, 33rd in the league.

Additionally, Love was influenced by the receiver's performance.

5.6% of his throws were dropped (5th highest).

Despite all of his missed time, Love had 34 incompletions due to receiver error (drops, falling on routes, etc.), which was the third most in the league.

Staying healthy will not be enough for Love. We need the Packers to improve their dropback rate and receiver play to return him to his 2023 output.

The Packers' dropback rate was 31st in the league (50.7%), which was 54.7% when Love was on the field.

However, there was an early indication that the Packers would be more pass heavy, and injuries and performance were key factors in adjusting their approach.

Over Love’s first five games of the season, their dropback rate was 60.8% with him on the field.

During those five games, Love was QB11, QB3, QB14, QB3, and QB12, showcasing a strong floor and spike-week potential.

In Week 8, he suffered that groin injury and was never the same.

With Love on the field from Week 9 on, the Packers had a 51.1% dropback rate, and Love’s output tailed off.

He had a high-scoring week of QB10 over his final nine games, with only two QB1 games and an average scoring week of QB19 (13.9 points).

Love is an attractive pick in this range because he still carries an attachment to a system that puts him in good situations to drive passing efficiency.

Players from the McShanahan tree have been some of the better bets to make at discounted pricing.

The system provided him with a 63.4% rate of throws using pre-snap motion (third).

Love still sported a 5.9% touchdown rate, which was higher than his rate in 2023 (5.5%).

He averaged 8.0 Y/A, up from the 7.2 Y/A he had last season.

The one bugaboo is that Love has a lackluster opening schedule (DET, WAS, @CLE, @DAL) before an early bye week.

He also has a potentially tough playoff schedule with road games in Denver and Chicago before seeing the Ravens.

Caleb Williams

Bye: Week 5

Fantasy Playoffs: CLE, GB, @SF

Williams disappointingly ended the 2024 season as the QB24 in points per game (15.0).

He logged just five weeks above QB14 in weekly scoring throughout the entire season.

Selecting Williams with the No. 1 overall pick last season, paired with an aggressive offseason, raised the Bears' expectations of being a team that could jump into contention.

The brakes were tapped as Williams and this offense never came together.

In his first NFL season, Williams completed 62.5% of his passes (31st) for 6.3 yards per pass attempt (33rd).

The only passers with fewer yards per attempt who qualified for the league’s passer rating last season were Bryce Young, Daniel Jones, and Cooper Rush.

15.3% of his throws were inaccurate, ahead of only Mac Jones and Anthony Richardson.

Downfield passing was a hangup in his rookie season.

Williams only completed 27.5% of his passes on throws 20 or more yards downfield (31st) and 35.8% of his attempts 10 or more yards downfield (34th) despite being above the league average in rate of those attempts.

He was 15th in attempts over 10 or more yards (33.3%) and seventh in rate of throws 20 or more yards downfield (14.2%).

Williams ended the year 30th in EPA per dropback (-0.05).

As a rookie, he lost -108.5 EPA to sacks, the second-worst total for any quarterback in a season in the 2000s.

The offensive line did not do Williams any favors, but he was sacked on 31.6% of his pressures.

That was the second-highest rate in the league, ahead of only Will Levis.

The league average was 20.7%.

Williams was credited with 18.7% of his pressures being self induced, while he took a league-high 17 sacks that were credited as his fault.

Williams and Chicago are overhauling this offense in an attempt to address the issues that arose during his rookie season.

While Williams has consistently had issues with pressure and taking negative plays going back to college, the team did still improve their interior offensive line this offseason, which added support to insulate that part of Williams’ game.

Their most used offensive line combination last season played together for only 34.9% of the snaps, which was 20th in the league.

Seven players played snaps at left guard for them last season, and three played right guard.

Chicago aggressively overhauled the interior of this offensive line this offseason by trading for Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson before signing Drew Dalman in free agency.

The Bears fired their head coach and offensive coordinator during Williams’ rookie season.

This year, they made the most significant splash during the hiring cycle, pulling Ben Johnson away from the Lions.

I don’t believe we will see Johnson attempt to make Williams Jared Goff. Instead, he will calibrate his offense around what Williams does best.

Williams offers Johnson more flexibility for creativity than Goff.

Williams was seventh in scramble rate (7.4%) and effective on those scrambles, averaging 7.8 yards per time he fled the pocket.

While Johnson has added flexibility with Williams, he should also do more to put Williams in more traditional dropbacks to help him succeed.

Williams was under center for only 28.8% of his dropbacks (18th) and used play action just 16.9% of the time, the second-lowest rate in the league.

Goff led the league with 55.6% of his snaps under center and a league-high 38% play action rate.

Williams will not be expected to match those rates, but there is significant room for improvement.

They also used a pair of top-40 picks on two more offensive weapons in Colston Loveland and Luther Burden.

The worst things about Williams as a rookie are tough to ignore and do not warrant giving him a hall pass entirely. But the top down situation has enough appealing improvements to keep the lights on for a better second season if the price is right.

The problem, however, is that Williams does not come along with an easy layout to make pouncing on him as a 1QB starter necessary.

The Bears have a middle-of-the-pack passing schedule (18th), but Williams opens the year with games against the Vikings, Lions, and Cowboys. He then gets a potentially softer spot against the Raiders but follows that with an early bye in Week 5.

If you are drafting Williams in 1QB leagues, you may not even be using him for four of the opening five weeks of the season.

The playoff schedule is a mixed bag, but there is potential for Cleveland, Green Bay, and San Francisco to all put out good defensive play as well.

Justin Herbert

Bye: Week 12

Fantasy Playoffs: @KC, @DAL, HOU

We entered last season expecting Herbert to have his best season from an efficiency standpoint while compromising on counting stats under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman.

That played out as expected.

Herbert threw for a career-low 227.6 yards per game, but he set career-best marks in interception rate (0.6%), yards per pass attempt (7.7), and yards per completion (11.7).

He was 12th among all quarterbacks in EPA per dropback (0.10), his highest mark since 2021.

While the conservative nature of this offense muted some of his top down statistics, the Chargers opened things up along the way, which propelled Herbert to more fantasy success.

From Week 8 onward, the Chargers threw the ball 1% more than expected.

That was not groundbreaking, but they had been 5% below expectations up until that point in the season.

They had a 60.2% dropback rate (20th) after a 52% rate (29th) prior.

From then on, Herbert averaged 8.0 Y/A (6th), 12.0 yards per completion (7th) with a 5.0% touchdown rate (14th) after he averaged 7.1 Y/A (19th), 10.9 yards per completion (18th), and a 3.7% touchdown rate (20th) prior.

The team generated splash plays, averaging 4.2 completions of 20 or more yards per game during that spike (7th in the league) compared to 3.2 per game beforehand (20th).

As a result, Herbert averaged 15.7 fantasy points per game over that stretch compared to 11.4 per game before.

He went from a back-end QB2 for fantasy to working his way into the back-end QB1 mix.

Harbaugh and Roman used pre-snap motion on 59.5% of Herbert’s dropbacks (8th) while he used play action on 32.1% (3rd).

Will the Chargers continue those tendencies to close the season, or was that spike in passing output due to a struggling run game?

Charger running backs posted a 36.2% success rate (23rd), while 20.9% of their runs failed to gain yardage (28th).

Remember, the season also ended with Herbert throwing 4 interceptions while the team ran 18 times for 50 yards.

We know Harbaugh and Roman want an effective run game, and their primary moves this offseason have signaled an emphasis on refocusing on establishing the run better in 2025.

The team signed Mekhi Becton in free agency.

They added Najee Harris in free agency.

Then, they used the No. 22 pick on Omarion Hampton in the NFL Draft.

The team did add Tre Harris and Mike Williams to the receiver room, but there is plenty of signal that the Chargers want to run the ball more effectively in 2025.

To top this all off, the Chargers have the 32nd-ranked passing schedule.

An additional way Herbert has a path to production in fantasy, despite that layout, is via his legs.

He rushed for a career-high 306 yards last year.

C.J. Stroud

Bye: Week 6

Fantasy Playoffs: ARI, LV, @LAC

Stroud took a step back across the board in his second season, completing 63.2% of his passes (27th) for 7.0 yards per attempt (22nd) and a 3.8% touchdown rate (29th).

He went from QB9 in points per game (18.4) down to QB33 (13.0) last season.

Negative plays were his major undoing.

He took a sack on 8.9% of his dropbacks compared to a 7.1% rate as a rookie.

With his interception rate jumping to 2.3% (1% as a rookie) paired with those sacks, Stroud had an NFL-high 21.1% of his dropbacks resulting in a loss of 1.0 EPA or worse.

One of the exciting aspects for Stroud coming into his second season was that he would be throwing the ball to Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell.

He ended up throwing only 66 total passes this season with all three of those receivers on the field.

With Bobby Slowik gone, Nick Caley was brought in as the new offensive coordinator, coinciding with movement at wide receiver.

Caley comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree, serving as the tight ends coach and passing game coordinator for the past two seasons with the Rams.

The receiving room has added several new faces around Collins.

Asking Christian Kirk to be a proxy for what Houston was getting from Stefon Diggs before his injury is well within reason.

Kirk is a younger player capable of filling the slot role vacated by Diggs.

Jayden Higgins is a throwback type of X receiver, coming in at 6-foot-4 and 214 pounds.

This receiver room is not as impressive as it was at this point a year ago, but if the unit can stay healthy, there is not much to ask for in terms of improvement over what Stroud ended up working with a year ago.

The offensive line remains a question mark.

They traded their best offensive lineman, Laremy Tunsil.

Not only was Tunsil their best player up front, but he was also the only one who played in every game.

Tunsil did have 19 penalties, but he was still excellent in pass protection, allowing a 3.1% pressure rate (sixth-best among tackles).

The team also traded away Kenyon Green (who led the team in snaps at right guard) and did not bring back Shaq Mason (who led the team in snaps at right guard).

Houston is throwing a lot of underwhelming pieces at the line and shuffling up the players they have retained.

The team added veteran tackles Cam Robinson and Trent Brown.

Robinson allowed a 9.3% pressure rate (92nd) with 13 penalties (94th) with Jacksonville and Minnesota last season.

Brown will be 32 this season and has played only 14 games in the past two seasons.

They also added veterans Laken Tomlinson and Ed Ingram.

Ingram allowed a 7.2% pressure rate last season, 87th among guards.

If looking for the silver lining, Green was 88th.

Tomlinson was 49th among guards in overall grade per Pro Football Focus, which was one spot below Mason.

Tytus Howard led the team with 812 snaps at right tackle last season but is expected to move inside this season.

Howard still has two seasons left on his rookie contract.

Juice Scruggs still has two years left on his rookie deal and is expected to compete for a spot inside.

He played 568 snaps at center, 250 snaps at left guard, and 53 snaps at right guard last season.

Jarrett Patterson played 537 snaps at center, ranking 32nd in overall grade at the position.

Houston added veteran Jake Andrews to compete at the position.

The truth lies somewhere between his rookie season output and last year’s drop off, but Stroud lacks high end upside due to his pass reliant nature.

He has just two weeks higher than QB7 over his two years.

Trevor Lawrence

Bye: Week 8

Fantasy Playoffs: NYJ, @DEN, @IND

Lawrence signed a massive contract extension last offseason that has him on the books through 2030.

He will still only be 26 this October, but he has failed to deliver on his upside to this point.

Lawrence has yet to give us a top-12 season in points per game.

Before injury last season, Lawrence was QB27 in points per game (14.5) with just three weeks in the top half of scoring.

Jacksonville hopes to turn things around and spark Lawrence under a new regime led by Liam Coen at head coach.

After completing 66.3% of his passes in 2022 and 65.6% in 2023, Lawrence completed just 60.6% of his throws last season.

His 41.8% success rate was his worst as a quarterback through four seasons.

His success rate and completion percentage suffered partially because he pushed the ball more downfield than ever in his early career.

He averaged a career-high 9.4 air yards per attempt, second only to Anthony Richardson among all players who qualified for passer rating.

Lawrence attempted a career-high 15.1% of his passes 20 or more yards downfield, which was fourth in the league.

This is where Coen can directly impact Lawrence in a way that we noted with Baker Mayfield.

Mayfield’s average time to throw was 2.62 seconds from the snap, his fastest since his rookie season.

47.2% of his throws were within 2.5 seconds of the snap, while his 7.0 air yards per throw were 28th.

The short and quick area passing game is going to rise for Lawrence under Coen.

But even on throws shorter than 10 yards downfield, Lawrence only completed 69.4% of his attempts, which was 32nd in the league. The league average on those throws was 74.2%.

Lawrence has had issues preventing negative plays.

He had a career-high 6% sack rate (16th) and a 2.5% interception rate (23rd).

His 3.9% turnover-worthy throw rate ranked 35th per Pro Football Focus.

The Jaguars have the ingredients for explosive playmakers but are also counting on a lot of young players to ramp up production quickly in Coen’s scheme.

Brian Thomas Jr. already did that last season.

Travis Hunter can join Coen’s offense right away and operate near the line of scrimmage like Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin, with added after the catch ability.

The Colorado offense had a high rate of screens built in.

Hunter ran a screen route on a class-high 21.3% of his routes.

However, screens only accounted for 21.9% of his receptions (17th).

On 237 routes with Evan Engram off the field last season, Brenton Strange was targeted on 18.1% of his routes.

The Jaguars' additions to the tight end position this offseason have been players who are not decorated pass catchers, setting Strange up for a larger role.

Dyami Brown is coming off career highs with Washington last season, catching 30 passes for 308 yards and a touchdown.

While those numbers are uninspiring, Brown will only turn 26 this season and played his best football in the postseason last year, catching 14 of 18 targets for 229 yards and a touchdown for Washington in the playoffs.

A lot is riding on those latter three players making a jump, which makes Lawrence a leap of faith again, based on his pedigree entering the league and the coaching change.

The Jaguars also lack a robust schedule layout.

They have our 27th-ranked passing schedule overall.

Matthew Stafford

Bye: Week 8

Fantasy Playoffs: DET, @SEA, @ATL

Early this offseason, there were whispers that the Rams were exploring a potential trade with Matthew Stafford, but the two sides agreed on a restructured contract that would keep him with the team at least through this season.

Stafford just turned 37 in February.

Stafford had a tale of two seasons centered around the health of this offense in 2024.

Getting Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back in Week 8, Stafford was 10th in EPA per dropback (0.16) after sitting 24th through seven games (-0.07) with those wideouts banged up.

He threw 17 touchdowns to 4 interceptions over his final 10 games.

That was still operating with a shell of what Kupp was early in his career.

Now, Stafford has Davante Adams sliding into that role in the offense.

Adams will turn 33 this December, but unlike Kupp, his 2024 season ended on a positive note.

After joining the Jets in Week 7, Adams averaged 6.1 receptions (10th) for 77.6 yards (11th) per game to go along with 7 touchdowns (7th).

He posted 2.17 yards per route over that stretch (WR19).

Adams found new life with the Jets by moving into the slot for 51% of his snaps, the highest rate of his career.

He caught 38 passes (3rd) for 427 yards (4th) from the slot over his time with the Jets.

That is a natural fit here since Kupp played 63.2% of his snaps inside.

Adams still won outside over that span, averaging 2.26 yards per route when he wasn’t in the slot.

Kupp was at 1.70 yards per route when he was lined up outside last season.

Stafford is a solid floor-based option and a target for favorable matchups, but his lack of rushing makes him a tough bet for consistent upside.

He has finished higher than QB18 in points per game in just two of the past seven seasons.

The pro side in 2QB formats is that he threw 17 touchdowns to 4 interceptions over his final 10 games with a healthy offense.

Tier 5 Fantasy Football QBs:

• J.J. McCarthy
• Bryce Young
• Michael Penix
• Cam Ward

This is our mini-tier of upside dart throws.

These quarterbacks do not have a sample size of success on the level of the passers above, but if you wanted to include them in the QB2 group, I would not offer any pushback. They just require an extra step of faith.

J.J. McCarthy

Bye: Week 6

Fantasy Playoffs: @DAL, @NYG, DET

Minnesota selected McCarthy 10th overall in last year’s draft, but we never saw him on the field during the regular season.

McCarthy suffered a torn meniscus in the preseason, forcing him to miss the entire season.

We only saw him get 19 dropbacks in the preseason.

He averaged 11.1 yards per attempt with 2 touchdowns in his small exhibition sample.

Minnesota has continuously reinforced that McCarthy is the future of the franchise this offseason.

They let Sam Darnold hit the open market and only added Sam Howell.

Rushing could be limited in his first year returning from injury, but Kevin O’Connell has earned faith in taking a swing on an upside outcome.

At the same time, he will play with a collection of talented pass catchers in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones.

Minnesota has signaled that they are going to insulate McCarthy.

They have extended Aaron Jones and Josh Oliver.

In free agency, they added Will Fries and Ryan Kelly.

They traded for Jordan Mason.

They used a first-round pick on guard Donovan Jackson.

This team has indicated that they plan to run the ball more and utilize the play-action game.

If McCarthy can protect the football and avoid the negative plays that Darnold had a year ago, there is a path for him to be efficient in a capacity similar to early career Brock Purdy.

Darnold was a boom or bust player in this system.

28.2% of his dropbacks earned 1.0 EPA or more (3rd in the league), but 17.7% also produced a loss of 1.0 EPA or worse (25th).

Darnold had an 8.1% sack rate (28th) and a 2.2% interception rate (19th).

His 3.7% turnover-worthy throw rate ranked 32nd.

The Vikings also have a solid layout, with the eighth-easiest projected passing schedule.

Bryce Young

Bye: Week 14

Fantasy Playoffs: @NO, TB, SEA

The Panthers hired Dave Canales last offseason due to his involvement in the resurgence of Geno Smith‘s and Baker Mayfield’s careers.

Hoping to max out the same type of development for Young following a disastrous rookie campaign, things got off to a rocky start.

Young was benched after two games into the 2024 season, and it appeared that all hope that the No. 1 overall pick was heading towards being sunk cost.

After a car accident sidelined Andy Dalton in Week 8 (or perhaps divine intervention, since Dalton was also not playing good football at the time), Young regained the starting job and gave Carolina some promise that there is still something Canales can mold moving forward.

Over the final 10 weeks of the season, Young threw 15 touchdowns to 6 interceptions.

He threw multiple touchdowns in each of the season's final three games.

His big-time throw rate (7.7%) per Pro Football Focus was tops in the NFL.

There is still considerable room for growth.

Over that span, Young was 18th in EPA per dropback (0.07), 27th in success rate (40.7%), 27th in completion rate (61.8%), and 28th in yards per pass attempt (6.6).

His 13.5% inaccurate throw rate was 29th over that period.

After taking over in Week 8, he was QB17 in points per game but notched two top-three scoring weeks over his final three outings.

Young still has a lot to prove, and this overall NFL sample to date is not highly glowing.

However, there is at least a spark surrounding how the year closed compared to the dismal trajectory things appeared to be heading toward.

The only reason I am not as bullish on Young is that I am unsure if his rushing to close last season was genuine.

Young averaged 6.4 rushing points per game over his final eight games after 1.7 prior.

His scramble rate was fourth in the NFL over that span (8.4%), but he ran hot in touchdowns on the ground.

He had 3.6 more rushing touchdowns than expectations, the second-most among quarterbacks.

3 of his 6 rushing touchdowns came from 10 or more yards out.

If that does remain static, we do not have many mobile quarterbacks in the QB2 range this season.

There is also added weaponry with the selection of Tetairoa McMillan to boost Young’s upside.

Young also benefits from an appealing early season schedule, making him a QB2 target for platoon play.

The Panthers open with games against the Jaguars, Cardinals, and Falcons.

Michael Penix

Bye: Week 5

Fantasy Playoffs: @TB, @ARI, LAR

Atlanta took on some scrutiny for selecting Penix with the No. 8 pick in last year’s draft after signing Kirk Cousins in free agency.

But the move proved shrewd, as Cousins flatlined to close the season, setting up Penix to get his feet wet as a rookie and take over as the franchise's future.

Penix started the final three games of the 2024 season.

Atlanta went 1-2 in those starts, but both losses came in overtime.

Penix was a mixed bag in his limited sample, completing 58% of his passes (29th) with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

He ended those weeks as QB30, QB25, and QB7 for fantasy.

However, he did throw for 7.4 yards per pass attempt, which was 11th over those three weeks.

Penix pushed the ball down the field over his initial sample in the league, averaging a league-high 10.2 air yards per pass attempt over that span.

47% of his throws were 10 yards or more downfield, and 18% were 20 yards or more downfield, the league's highest rates over the season's final three weeks.

Before the change, Cousins was averaging 7.4 air yards per attempt (20th), throwing 35.1% of his passes 10 or more yards downfield (11th) and 9.7% of those attempts 20 or more yards downfield (24th).

Penix also pushed the ball outside of the numbers.

49.4% of his passes were outside the numbers (third from Week 16 to Week 18).

Penix has the keys to this offense heading into 2025.

There is some Jameis Winston-esque potential as Atlanta could find themselves in a plethora of shootouts due to their defense and schedule.

The Falcons surely want to be a balanced offense, but Atlanta faces numerous offenses that can score points, paired with question marks on defense.

They open with Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Carolina, Washington, Buffalo, San Francisco, and Miami.

They get Tampa, Arizona, and the Rams in the fantasy playoffs.

You can make a strong case that all of those teams will force them to chase the scoreboard.

Cam Ward

Bye: Week 10

Fantasy Playoffs: @SF, KC, NO

Ward is the one rookie quarterback whom we can confidently bank on starting all 17 games this season, excluding injury.

Ward has a low bar to clear for this to become an immediate upgrade for Tennessee.

Tennessee passers combined to rank 30th in the NFL in EPA per dropback (-0.09).

They were 27th in success rate (38.1%), while 19.4% of their dropbacks resulted in a loss of 1.0 EPA or worse (31st).

I wish we had a larger sample of Ward facing front end caliber competition, but the passing resume is strong.

After spending two seasons at Washington State, Ward threw 39 touchdown passes with 7 interceptions at Miami this past season.

After averaging 6.5 and 7.7 yards per pass attempt in his first two seasons, he spiked to 9.5 yards per pass attempt last year.

51.1% of his passes resulted in a first down or touchdowns, the highest rate of this class.

Ward closed his collegiate career with a passing production grade in the 90th percentile among passers invited to the Combine in the 2000s.

He loves to extend plays.

Averaging 2.93 seconds from the snap to throw this past season, his time to throw was the second longest of any quarterback in this class.

Despite holding the football, Ward did not take a ton of sacks, at least.

His 4.5% sack rate was average for this class.

18.9% of Ward’s pressures were credited as his fault for holding the ball per Pro Football Focus, but he only took two sacks on those 21 pressures credited as his fault.

That 9.5% sack rate on self-induced pressure was the lowest of this draft class this past season.

His rushing production will likely come with week to week variance in the NFL, but he can provide rushing output as a bonus for fantasy points.

Ward ended his career with a rushing profile in the 63rd percentile.

His rushing production was nearly entirely built on scrambles versus designed rushing usage, so I suggest it will come with a weekly variance.

Ward only had four designed runs last season.

That means Ward’s fantasy production will still rely on weekly passing output, which makes him more of a QB2 who can moonlight as a QB1 in a hot season, but he will have to throw a lot of touchdowns.

The Tennessee environment remains a question mark for upside, and the schedule does him no favors, either early or late.

The Titans open the year with games against the Broncos, Rams, and Texans in September.

Tier 6 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Sam Darnold
• Geno Smith
• Aaron Rodgers

This is our floor-based QB2 tier.

All of these veterans are in a position to start the whole season in 2025, but a lack of upside appeal prevents them from fully joining Tier 4.

That said, in 2QB and Superflex formats, there is comfort in knowing that these players have relatively secure jobs and can serve as patchwork options in platoons at the position.

Sam Darnold

Bye: Week 8

Fantasy Playoffs: IND, LAR, @CAR

Seattle shook up their quarterback room this offseason, signing Darnold in free agency.

Darnold is coming off his best season in the NFL, finishing 16th among qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback (0.06).

He had some strong efficiency metrics, posting 7.9 yards per pass attempt (6th) and a 6.4% touchdown rate (5th), but he was a boom or bust performer.

28.2% of his dropbacks earned 1.0 EPA or more (3rd in the league), but 17.7% also produced a loss of 1.0 EPA or worse (25th).

Darnold had an 8.1% sack rate (28th) and a 2.2% interception rate (19th).

His 3.7% turnover-worthy throw rate ranked 32nd.

Darnold’s best season also ended on a significant down note, as he completed just 53.1% of his passes for 5.1 Y/A with an interception and 11 sacks in the Week 18 game for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the Wild Card loss to the Rams.

Darnold will reunite with Klint Kubiak, who was with the 49ers in 2023.

Kubiak runs a system that can coax out the best of what we saw from Darnold last season, and the coach got some of the best football from Derek Carr when he was with the New Orleans Saints.

Carr had career-high rates using play action and pre-snap motion last year.

Carr was fifth in the league in dropbacks with motion (60.7%) and 11th in use of play action (27.2%).

Darnold was at his best last year using play action.

His 130.2 rating was second in the NFL using play action. He completed 72.2% of his passes (8th) for 10.1 Y/A (5th) and a 10.1% touchdown rate (2nd).

Kubiak will primarily focus on keeping Darnold clean and calling games to insulate an offensive line full of questions.

Darnold’s negative plays were driven by pressure.

When pressured, he had a 3% interception rate (18th) and a 22.1% sack rate (23rd).

While Darnold has strengths that align with the new system, his pass catchers require some scrutiny for fit and are not as strong as the group he worked with in Minnesota.

While Jaxon Smith-Njigba enjoyed a breakout season, he was still a player driven by his performance from the slot.

Through two seasons, he has played 67.6% and 77.4% of his snaps from the slot.

From the slot last season, Smith-Njigba posted 1.91 yards per route but only 1.30 yards per route on the outside.

Through two seasons, he has run only 58 routes with 1-2 wide receivers on the field, averaging 1.98 yards per route.

Kubiak’s system is primarily driven by 2WR sets, which makes the combination of Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp a more unusual fit.

New Orleans used 11 personnel on only 33.3% of their snaps last season (31st).

When he called plays for Minnesota in 2021, they were 29th in the rate of 11 personnel (42.1%).

Even without the addition of Kupp, Smith-Njigba was going to be asked to win more on the outside in 2025.

Kupp is coming off a disappointing close to his run with the Rams and will turn 32 in June.

He matched a career low with 10.6 yards per catch, while his 59.2 yards per game were his fewest since his rookie season.

Kupp ended the year catching only 18 passes for 252 yards over his final seven games last season through the playoffs.

Kupp was also slot-dependent for production, just like Smith-Njigba.

He played 63.2% of his snaps from the slot last year with the Rams.

Kupp has only run 15 total routes with 1-2 receivers on the field the past two years.

While in the slot, Kupp averaged 2.14 yards per route run, but that rate dropped to 1.70 yards outside, the lowest mark of his career.

Darnold does get a solid looking playoff schedule if everything comes together.

Geno Smith

Bye: Week 8

Fantasy Playoffs: @PHI, @HOU, NYG

When the offseason opened, the Raiders made an aggressive move, trading a third-round pick to acquire Smith.

In doing so, Smith was reunited with Pete Carroll, whom the Raiders hired this offseason.

Under Carroll in Seattle, Smith revitalized a dormant career.

Smith started 53 games for Seattle, and since the 2021 season, he has completed 68.5% of his passes (fourth in the NFL).

Over the past three seasons as a starter, Smith led the team to 27 wins, sixth in the league.

Las Vegas passers were 27th in the NFL this past season with an 82.4 rating.

They ranked 26th in EPA per dropback (-0.05) with a 37.8% success rate (29th).

While Smith has enjoyed a turnaround in his career, he has still been one of the most sensitive passers when handling pressure during that top down improvement.

Geno Smith Stats 2021-2024 With and Without Pressure

Kept clean, Smith has been one of the most efficient passers in the NFL over the past four seasons but has run cold when forced to handle pressure.

Smith’s completion rate is high among passers when pressured, but his depth of target shrinks compared to the league average, which is why his yards per pass attempt fall off a cliff.

Smith has averaged a league-low 7.5 air yards per target when pressured over that span.

Smith has had poor touchdown luck with or without pressure over his renaissance.

Over the past four seasons, he has completed only 49.3% of his passes in the red zone (36th).

34% of his throws into the end zone have been completed (27th), short of the 36.3% league rate.

That was playing with a stronger pass catching corps than the one he is inheriting in Las Vegas.

While Smith is an upgrade over what the Raiders have pushed out on the field in recent years, he means more for the Las Vegas pass catchers than elevating his fantasy stock.

Smith has finished as QB24 and QB18 in points per game the past two seasons while attached to better receiving units in Seattle than his current layout in Las Vegas.

The schedule also does him no favors.

The Raiders have a tough run after the Week 8 bye, facing Denver (twice), Dallas, Cleveland, the Chargers, Eagles, and Texans leading up to Week 17.

Aaron Rodgers

Bye: Week 5

Fantasy Playoffs: MIA, @DET, @CLE

Rodgers will be 42 this December, finding a new home in Pittsburgh.

He did play his best football as the season ended, throwing 18 touchdowns and 4 interceptions over the final 10 games.

However, he still only posted 6.8 yards per attempt over that span.

Rodgers logged six QB1 scoring weeks, but the lack of front end upside was limited, with just one of those being higher than QB8.

That was while the Jets were third in the NFL in dropback rate (65.8%), and he had better pass catchers than what he will inherit with the Steelers.

Rodgers himself is a slow paced quarterback who loves to eat the clock and finds himself in a low volume Arthur Smith offense in a tougher division than last year.

With his lack of rushing, Rodgers is stuck as a fantasy QB2 and streamer.

Arthur Smith Offenses

Smith has never run an offense that has thrown the football at a rate above pass rate expectations, adjusting for game scripts.

The Steelers also have the most demanding schedule in the league to close the season.

From Week 10 on, the Steelers face the Chargers, Bears, Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, Lions, and Browns.

Tier 7 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Anthony Richardson
• Daniel Jones
• Russell Wilson
• Jaxson Dart
• Tyler Shough
• Spencer Rattler
• Joe Flacco
• Dillon Gabriel
• Shedeur Sanders
• Kenny Pickett

This is our final tier of passers, comprising players we expect to start games in 2025, although the number of starts associated with them remains unknown.

These quarterback situations are tenuous entering the season, forcing us to proceed with caution and monitor the competitions throughout the remainder of the summer.

Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones

Bye: Week 11

Fantasy Playoffs: @SEA, SF, JAX

The Colts are heading into the 2025 season with more questions than answers at the quarterback position after Richardson struggled in his second season.

Among the 36 quarterbacks to qualify for the league’s passer rating, he completed a league-low 47.7% of his passes.

The next closest player completed 60.6%.

Entering the league with significant red flags in terms of accuracy, Richardson checked every negative box in completing 10.9% fewer passes than expected (the worst in the league).

A league-high 17.8% of his passes were inaccurate throws.

The average among the players who qualified for passer rating was a 10.6% inaccurate throw rate.

Richardson took a high number of deep throws, which come with a decreased success rate.

He averaged a league-high 12.2 air yards per pass attempt.

That was the highest rate since Tim Tebow in 2011 (12.9 yards downfield).

A league-high 22.7% of his passes were 20 or more yards downfield.

Tebow’s 2011 season was the only season with a higher rate (24%) since the data has been tracked.

Richardson completed only 34.4% of his passes (44 of 128) 10 or more yards downfield, the lowest rate in the league.

The only other seasons with a lower rate since 2010 were DeShone Kizer‘s in 2017, at 32.7% (55 of 168), and Tebow's in 2011, at 33.1% (48 of 145).

That’s a lot of Tebow popping up as the closest comparable season.

Richardson had a 6.1% drop rate from his pass catchers, the third-highest rate in the league.

He only had a clean pocket on 53.5% of his dropbacks, which was 33rd in the league.

It is easy to make some excuses here, based on Richardson's high rate of inefficient throws, a high rate of drops, and poor offensive line play.

However, the bottom line is that Richardson still struggled to cash in on the free squares required to keep an NFL offense on schedule.

Richardson completed 60.3% of his passes on throws under 10 yards downfield, the lowest rate in a season since C.J. Beathard in 2017 (58.3%).

From a clean pocket, Richardson had a 16.8% inaccurate throw rate. The average was 9.3%.

This is why we saw Richardson benched for a stint last season.

20.5% of Richardson’s dropbacks resulted in a play that lost 1.0 EPA or worse, 35th in the league.

We do not have many examples of quarterbacks with these types of early career accuracy issues who have put things together and fixed those problems.

That said, the Colts did go 6-5 in Richardson’s 11 starts and 2-4 in the other games.

They averaged 5.5 yards per play when Richardson was in the game (14th) compared to 5.1 yards without him (25th).

However, that was due to the boom or bust nature of this offense operated under Richardson.

The Colts had a 39.4% success rate with Richardson off the field (23rd) compared to a 37.2% rate on the field (31st).

The volatile nature of Richardson’s game led to the team benching him for two weeks last season.

The team signed Jones to a one-year contract, adding competition to the roster this offseason.

The only player Jones finished ahead of last season in rating (79.4) was Richardson (61.6).

The odd part about Jones' addition is that these quarterbacks play a different style despite subpar efficiency, which complicates the consistency of this offense.

While Richardson is a high-variance player who wants to push the ball downfield and take shots with his arm strength, Jones is a low-ceiling player who has needed hand holding to coax out the best spurts of his career in New York.

We highlighted that Richardson took the most shots downfield of any quarterback.

Since Jones entered the league in 2019, he has averaged 7.3 air yards per pass attempt, 38th among 45 qualifying quarterbacks.

Just 8.7% of his career throws have gone 20 or more yards downfield (43rd).

To compound matters, Jones has struggled in the short passing game.

On that same list of 45 quarterbacks, he ranks 40th in rating on throws under 10 yards downfield.

You can make excuses for Jones based on the quality of pass catchers he had in New York, but he was 31st in that department last season with the addition of Malik Nabers.

This staff was undoubtedly frustrated by Richardson’s inconsistency, but will Jones change that while providing a lower ceiling for this offense?

There is a good shot that both quarterbacks start games in 2025.

Richardson has missed 17 games so far with injuries and already has dealt with a shoulder issue to open the summer.

Russell Wilson and Jaxson Dart

Bye: Week 14

Fantasy Playoffs: WAS, MIN, @LV

This quarterback situation is a bit clearer.

We know Dart will eventually take over the job if he does not enter the season as the Giants' starting quarterback outright.

Wilson’s contract is worth up to $21 million and puts him in pole position to lead things off as the QB1 in the room, but how long can he hold onto the job?

The Giants have a brutal slate of opponents this season.

They open the year with games against Washington, Dallas, Kansas City, the Chargers, Eagles (twice), Broncos, 49ers, Packers, Lions, and Bears over the opening 12 weeks.

Pittsburgh was 6-5 in Wilson’s starts last season, which included a win over the Giants in Week 8.

Wilson was 23rd in EPA per dropback last season (0.00) and 28th in success rate (41%).

In proper Wilson form, he either threw the ball down the field or took a checkdown, with almost no middle game.

51.8% of Wilson’s throws were 5 or more yards downfield (25th), but 13.4% were on throws 20 or more yards downfield (9th).

On those deep throws, Wilson was third in the NFL last year in rating (113.4) and was second with a 46.7% completion percentage.

New York passers combined for a 62.4 rating (24th) and only a 26.3% completion percentage (28th) on those throws last season.

The Giants made a move for their future quarterback, trading back into the first round for Dart at No. 25 overall.

Dart improved his completion rate and yards per pass attempt every season in college, ending his career at Ole Miss with a 69.3% completion rate (85th percentile), 10.8 Y/A (97th percentile), and 4.8 touchdowns for every interception (81st percentile).

Dart led this draft class in yards per pass attempt under pressure (10.2) and with a clean pocket (10.9).

Dart had the highest depth of target for any passer in this draft class (11.9).

Only 55.4% of his throws were shorter than 10 yards downfield, the lowest rate in this class.

22.1% of his throws were 20 yards or further downfield, the highest rate in the class by a significant margin (second place was 17.6%).

The continued progression of Dart is an encouraging aspect of his entering the league.

At the same time, his system attachment in college raises the most significant questions.

Only 26.6% of his passes were made without using play action, motion, or screens, the fourth-lowest rate in this class.

53.2% of his dropbacks came with play action, the highest rate of this class.

Those components are cheat codes in the NFL, and we want our quarterbacks to utilize them at a high rate as Dart did in college.

Hopefully, Brian Daboll and the Giants will incorporate those.

A positive is that he averaged 10.7 yards per attempt on his traditional dropbacks without any of those additions.

Still, the current NFL passing game, dictated by how NFL pass defenses are playing, is structured around the quick passing game, whereas Dart’s collegiate profile is built on the opposite approach.

Seeing Dart’s fit behind this offensive line as another component will be interesting.

The Giants received another season of subpar play up front.

The team ended the season ranking 26th in ESPN’s pass block win rate (56%).

At Pro Football Focus, they ranked 28th in pass blocking grade.

Dart is another passer who will rely on scrambling to supplement his designed rushing output in the NFL, but he can get out of trouble and has shown a propensity to run.

Dart has a career rushing production score in the 72nd percentile.

He scrambled on 9.5% of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate in this draft class.

When pressured, Dart scrambled on 19.2% of his dropbacks (also second)

Dart does have Drake Maye-esque potential, but the Giants' layout on paper does not provide many soft spots to bank on significant upside.

Tyler Shough and Spencer Rattler

Bye: Week 11

Fantasy Playoffs: CAR, NYJ, @TEN

Selected 40th overall, the Saints should see what they have in Shough to open the season, but the top down team environment may not lead to success, and the draft capital leaves the door open for Kellen Moore to look at Rattler again should Shough struggle.

Shough has had one of the odder rides for any quarterback prospect to enter the league, let alone this draft class.

He was in the 2018 recruitment class, alongside Trevor Lawrence, who has already logged four NFL seasons.

Shough backed up Justin Herbert at Oregon for two seasons to open his career.

He floundered in his first season as a starter at Oregon in 2020 before transferring to Texas Tech, where he had no luck staying on the field.

Shough broke his left collarbone in 2021, re-broke that collarbone in 2022, and then broke his fibula in 2023.

He transferred to Louisville this past season, giving him seven years of college experience.

Shough had not appeared in more than seven games in any season before 2024 but stayed on the field this past season, completing 62.7% of his passes for 3,195 yards (8.2 Y/A) with 23 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.

He was sacked on a class-low 3.3% of his dropbacks and only had a 1.8% turnover-worthy rate on his throws (fourth), but the rest of the things make it harder to gauge.

Through his journey, which transfers and injuries have marred, Shough will be a 26-year-old rookie.

However, unlike guys like Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels last season, Shough does not have the same type of on-field experience.

Despite seven years in college, Shough has only 951 career pass attempts.

Only Jalen Milroe (663) had fewer in this class.

The on-field sample is also questionable upon close examination.

Against Power 5 opponents, Shough’s 70% on-target rate was the second lowest in this class.

When blitzed, he completed 58.4% of his passes, ahead of only Milroe.

He completed 42.3% of his passes when pressured, ahead of only Max Brosmer in this class.

Offering limited rushing ability paired with a team that could compete for the No. 1 overall pick in 2026, how much upside can we squeeze for fantasy?

It is not even safe to say Shough will get a complete runway to start all 17 games.

Rattler completed 57% of his passes for 5.8 yards per attempt, throwing 4 touchdowns on 228 passes (1.8%) with 5 interceptions (2.2%) last year.

He was also sacked on 8.8% of his dropbacks.

QB Browns

Bye: Week 9

Fantasy Playoffs: @CHI, BUF, PIT

The Browns enter the summer with all of Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel, and Shedeur Sanders competing for playing time.

Flacco is the favorite to start right now, but I would wager that we see multiple (if not three or more) players start games for the Browns this season.

Flacco's deal is worth up to $13 million, including incentives, but at face value, it is only a $4 million deal.

Flacco just turned 40 in January.

He made six starts with the Colts last season, throwing 12 touchdowns with 7 interceptions.

With the Browns in 2023, Flacco was 4-1 in the regular season, throwing 13 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.

Gabriel was selected ahead of Sanders, so it will be interesting to see the two rookies play this preseason.

Gabriel appeared in 64 games over six collegiate seasons at UCF, Oklahoma, and Oregon.

He was one of only seven quarterbacks invited to the NFL Combine with over 2,000 career pass attempts.

Gabriel is undersized (5-foot-11 and 205 pounds), which is the main hindrance.

He was also more of a bus driver, posting the lowest target depth (7.0 air yards) with the lowest big-time throw rate (3.2%) in this class.

17.0% of his passing yards came via screen passes, the highest rate of any passer here.

Still, he is an effective scrambler with experience.

Sanders is going to draw a lot of attention in the preseason.

He is in the 98th percentile in career completion rate (70.1%) and ranks in the 93rd percentile in career TD:INT rate (5.0%).

Sanders experienced a slight dip in his second season at Colorado compared to 2023.

His 74% completion rate was in the 98th percentile for final-season output for prospects since 2000, but his 8.7 Y/A was 68th percentile, while the 3.7 TD:INT rate was 62nd percentile.

When Sanders is at his best, he works within the offense and stays on schedule.

He is consistently accurate when he has a clean pocket and plays in rhythm with the offense, anticipating the play. He provides his playmakers with opportunities to create after the catch.

Sanders averaged a class-high 3.0 seconds from the snap per throw this past season, which is a concern.

From a clean pocket, he averaged 2.35 seconds to throw the football, the sixth-highest rate in this class.

Sanders completed a class-high 80.8% of his passes from a clean pocket in 2024.

Sanders can create on his own, resetting pockets and buying time, but that is also the part of his game that creates the problems he encounters.

Sanders only had a 1.3% rate of turnover-worthy throws this past season (second lowest in the class), but he also took a class-high 7.3% sack rate.

He was sacked on a class-high 7.5% of his third and fourth down dropbacks.

We discussed this with Caleb Williams before he entered the NFL, and it remained static in his rookie season.

Sure, he wasn’t turning the ball over directly via interceptions, but he was taking a plethora of sacks, which are adjacent to turnovers in the NFL.

Sanders had the highest pressure rate of any quarterback in this draft class at 36.2% of his dropbacks in 2024.

According to Pro Football Focus, 26.2% of his pressures were also credited to him, the highest rate in this class.

His time to throw when pressured was 4.14 seconds after the snap.

He took a class-high 17 sacks on pressures that he was credited with creating.