|37.9%||4||Opp. Rush %||40.3%||10|
|62.1%||29||Opp. Pass %||59.7%||23|
Against the Spread
Bills ATS at Home: 6-3
Ravens ATS Away: 6-3
Bills ATS as Favorite: 7-5
Ravens ATS as Underdog: 2-0
Buffalo is coming off their first playoff win at home since the 1995 season, holding off the Colts 27-24 last Saturday.
The Colts tried to play keep away as Buffalo had the ball for just 25:43 of possession. Only the Bears had the ball for a shorter amount of time (21:02). But as was the case for the regular season, the Buffalo offense continued to click. The Bills averaged 6.8 yards per offensive play, which was the second-most of all teams playing in the Wild Card Round. This was after averaging 6.2 yards per play in the regular season, which was fourth in the league.
Defensively, though, there was some concern as Buffalo allowed 472 yards, the second-most they have allowed this season, trailing the 478 yards they allowed back in Week 3 to the Rams.
Baltimore presses on after beating Tennessee 20-13, breaking down multiple narratives surrounding Lamar Jackson that he could not win a playoff game and that they could not win a game after falling behind by double-digit points. After trailing 10-0 early, Baltimore found their groove, punting on just one their final six drives of the game while forcing a punt or turnover on five of the final six possessions for the Titans.
Josh Allen: Allen rolled his regular-season performance right over into the playoffs, completing 74.3% of his passes for 324 yards (9.3 Y/A) and two touchdowns while adding 54 yards and a score on the ground.
Allen has now scored at least 30 fantasy points in each of his past three full games played and in four of his past five.
This week, he draws a Baltimore defense that has allowed 13.8 passing points per game, which is good for sixth in the league. The Ravens are allowing 0.37 points per pass attempt (second) while ranking second in yards per pass attempt allowed (6.4 Y/A) and yards allowed per completion (9.9 yards) while ranking third in touchdown rate allowed (3.5%) to opposing passers. Just one quarterback (Patrick Mahomes) threw more than two touchdown passes against Baltimore this season while they allowed just three 300-yard passers.
Allen himself has played five games this season against opponents that rank higher than the Ravens in passing points allowed per game. In those five games, Allen has thrown 14 touchdown passes to three interceptions while averaging 8.2 Y/A and 24.8 fantasy points per game.
With the Ravens, you know you are going to see heat. Baltimore blitzes at a league-high 44.1% rate. Against the blitz, Allen was more than steady this season, completing 66.2% of his passes for 7.8 Y/A with 18 touchdowns to just two interceptions.
Allen had eight games against other teams in the top-10 in blitz rate this season and in those games, Allen averaged 23.6 fantasy points per game while throwing multiple touchdown passes in seven of those games.
But if the pressure can get home, Allen was one of the most impacted passers under pressure versus throwing from a clean pocket. Under pressure, Allen’s yards per attempt dropped -2.0 yards and his completion rate decreased by -29.6%. Those marks were the 25th and 36th largest declines in the league.
Lamar Jackson: Jackson’s strong finish to the regular season spilled over a week ago as he posted his sixth consecutive game with more than 20 fantasy points (24.8). Jackson posted a season-high 136 rushing yards. Jackson has been back to being a huge threat on the ground, rushing for at least 80 yards in five of his past six games and rushing for 50 or more yards in 10 of his past 11 games.
The Bills did surrender 309 passing yards a week ago to Philip Rivers, but were solid in allowing a 58.7% completion rate and 6.7 Y/A. Over their past nine games, Buffalo has allowed a 60.2% completion rate and 6.1 Y/A after allowing a 67.7% completion rate and a 7.6 Y/A prior.
On the ground, Buffalo was 21st in rushing yardage allowed to opposing passers this season (20.4 yards per game) while allowing seven rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks (30th). It was a year ago, but perhaps worth bringing up that these teams did play in Buffalo a year ago, with Buffalo holding Jackson to 40 yards rushing on 11 carries, his second-lowest total during his MVP season. Jackson still threw three touchdown passes, but was also limited to 145 passing yards, his third-lowest total of that breakout campaign a year ago.
J.K. Dobbins: Dobbins continued to be limited in the opportunity department in his first career playoff game, accruing just 10 touches and 37 yards last week against the Titans while Gus Edwards still received eight touches (for 38 yards of his own).
Dobbins has double-digit touches in 10 of his past 11 games played, but also has eclipsed 13 touches in just four of those games with a high of 17. Those limited touches have limited Dobbins from tallying huge yardage as he has cleared 85 total yards in just two games this season.
But Dobbins has elevated his limited opportunities through scoring production and efficiency. Dobbins has a rushing touchdown in each of his past seven games, matching a franchise record set by Willis McGahee. Dobbins has also averaged 6.2 yards per carry over that span, with 15.1% of his carries going for 10 or more yards, which have resulted in 51.9% of his rushing yardage. The Bills are susceptible to allowing big gains, ranking 31st in the league in carries to gain five or more yards (40.8%) and 25th in carries allowed to gain 10 or more yards (13.8%).
Devin Singletary: With Zack Moss suffering an ankle injury last week and being out for the remainder of the playoffs, Singletary is back in front of the Buffalo backfield.
With Moss absent from the lineup Weeks 3-5, Singletary had 17, 23, and 12 touches for 121, 76, and 33 yards. His best game over that span did come against the Rams defense, which offers some promise against a Baltimore defense that is sixth in the league in rushing points allowed (10.7 points). Where the Ravens have been vulnerable to backs is in the passing game, allowing 10.7 receiving points per game to backfields (23rd).
Stefon Diggs: It was just another day at the office for Diggs last week. Diggs kept his streak going of scoring double-digit PPR points in every game this season as he caught 6-of-9 targets for 128 yards and a touchdown against the Colts.
Diggs now has reached 100 yards in four of his past five games played with at least 92 yards in eight of his past 10 games. On top of the yardage, Diggs has at least six receptions in 14 straight games, something that has been done only three other times in league history while he can match the all-time record of 15 games.
The Ravens allow just two 100-yard receivers this season and no defense was better against opposing WR1 options this season than the Ravens, allowing just 10.5 points per game with a league-low 44.9 yards allowed to those feature wideouts. They also had some added schedule benefits come their way here as they had just four games against top-12 fantasy wideouts in points per game this season. Those wideouts did find some success outside Will Fuller who suffered a hamstring injury as the other were Tyreek Hill (5-77-1) and A.J. Brown, who had games of 4-62-1 and 6-83-1.
Marquise Brown: Brown has found his footing to close the season, scoring double-digit points in each of his past seven games. While a strong chunk of that production has come directly via touchdowns (31.1%), the team found a way to get him some added manufactured touches and opportunities last week as he posted season-highs with seven catches for 109 yards while adding 19 rushing yards. Over that seven-game sample, Brown has at least seven targets in five of those games with six or more in all but one. It is an inherently low-volume passing attack, but Brown has seen 33.1% of the team targets over that span.
Buffalo is seventh in the league in receptions allowed to opposing WR1 (4.8 per game) and 10th in yardage allowed to those wideouts per game (63.3), but did allow opposing lead wideouts to catch eight touchdowns (21st). Brown has seen 14 end zone targets, matching Mark Andrews for the team lead.
Cole Beasley: Unable to fully practice all of last week, Beasley suited up and caught all seven of his targets for 57 yards against the Colts. Beasley has now seen 20% and 26% of the team targets in each of his past two games played with John Brown on the field.
Running 90% of his routes from the slot, Beasley is second in the league in slot receptions (85) and the only wide receiver to have over 1,000 yards from the slot (1,005) on the year. Baltimore defensive backs have allowed just two touchdowns in slot coverage this season, but have allowed double-digit PPR points to JuJu Smith-Schuster (8-37-1 and 7-67-0), Randall Cobb (5-59-0), Zach Pascal (5-55-0), and Jakobi Meyers (5-59-0) to keep Beasley as a floor-based option.
John Brown: Brown was blanked last week, failing to catch any of his four targets. If looking through rose-colored lenses, Brown did play 97% of the snaps, but Brown has now reached 20% of the team targets in just two games this season with three games reaching 15% of the looks. When Brown hits, he has had to do so on marginal opportunity.
As a byproduct of what we mentioned with Diggs, the Ravens have been stingy altogether versus opposing wideouts, ranking second in yards allowed per target (7.2 yards) and fantasy points allowed per target to the position (1.60).
Gabriel Davis: Even with Brown returning to the lineup and limiting his snaps, Davis made an impact last week. Davis played 54% of the snaps, catching all four of his targets for 85 yards. Davis has had five or fewer targets in every game he has played with Brown active in full, but he leads the team with a 17.4 average depth of target and 17.5 yards per reception.
The Ravens have also been good against the deep ball, which rolls into potentially impacting Davis turning in a big play. Baltimore is fifth in the league in completion rate allowed on throws over 15 yards downfield at 36.5% and fourth in yardage allowed on those attempts.
Mark Andrews: Andrews caught 4-of-6 targets for 41 yards last week. The six targets were good for 25% of the team total, but Andrews always has to make his opportunities count in this low-volume passing game. Andrews has at least four receptions in each of his past seven games after having hit that number in two of his first eight, so the floor has still been higher with this offense playing their best football to close the season.
Andrews also has another opportunity to make his targets stick. Opposing teams have targeted their tight ends 23.6% of the time against the Bills, which is the fourth-highest rate in the league. On those targets, the Bills rank 23rd in catch rate (70.3%), 20th in yards per target (7.6 yards), and 18th in touchdown rate allowed (6.8%) to the position and just allowed Colts tight ends to catch 14-of-16 targets for 136 yards and a touchdown a week ago.
Dawson Knox: Knox has reached double-digit PPR points just twice all season with more than two receptions in just two games. But he is third on the team in end zone targets (six) and has scored in four of his past seven games if chasing a touchdown opportunity attached to Allen.
More Divisional Round Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: