The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 10 matchup between the Vikings and Ravens.
Find a breakdown of every Week 10 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Baltimore | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4.0 | Spread | 4.0 | ||
| 26.0 | Implied Total | 22.0 | ||
| 25.3 | 12 | Points/Gm | 22.8 | 18 |
| 27.0 | 24 | Points All./Gm | 23.3 | 20 |
| 55.0 | 32 | Plays/Gm | 57.4 | 25 |
| 65.9 | 30 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.9 | 12 |
| 5.8 | 8 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 23 |
| 5.7 | 25 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 15 |
| 47.27% | 5 | Rush% | 39.65% | 25 |
| 52.73% | 28 | Pass% | 60.35% | 8 |
| 42.13% | 15 | Opp. Rush % | 48.64% | 28 |
| 57.87% | 18 | Opp. Pass % | 51.36% | 5 |
- The Ravens are averaging 6.4 yards per play with Lamar Jackson on the field this season, which would lead the league over the whole season.
- Baltimore has allowed a touchdown on 3 of 11 opponent red zone trips (27.3%) over the past three weeks (2nd in the league) after allowing a 76% red zone touchdown rate (19 of 25) prior (31st).
- The Ravens are allowing 1.30 points per drive over their past three games (3rd in the league) after allowing a league-high 3.22 points per drive prior.
- Minnesota games are 7-1 towards the over this season (.875), the highest rate in the league.
- Baltimore games are 6-2 to the over (.750), tied for 3rd.
- Minnesota is averaging 26.3 yards per drive, ahead of the Browns (22.5) and Titans (21.7).
- Minnesota games average a league-high 7.0 combined sacks per game.
- The Vikings have converted a league-low 38.5% (10 of 26) of their third and short situations (needing 3 or fewer yards). The league rate is 60%.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson: Jackson delivered a strong fantasy line in his first game back, ending Week 9 as the QB9 (25.6 points) in a high-scoring week at the position.
Jackson did not run much, which was expected.
He rushed 5 times for 14 yards.
However, the Miami matchup was one where he could get there for fantasy through the air.
Jackson completed 18 of 23 passes (78.3%) for 204 yards (8.9 Y/A) with 4 touchdowns.
Jackson has scored at least 25 fantasy points in each of his four complete games.
Jackson leads all quarterbacks in passing points per attempt (0.821).
16.3% of his completions have been touchdowns, which is not a sustainable rate.
The league rate is 7.6% while the next closest passer (Matthew Stafford) is at 11.4%.
In last year’s incredible run, Jackson had a touchdown on 13% of his completions.
That should level off over a larger sample, but Jackson, paired with Todd Monken, has been a fantasy juggernaut.
He is a front-end QB1.
Jackson has finished in the back half of weekly scoring only six times under Monken.
This matchup is intriguing because Brian Flores gave Jackson one of his most challenging matchups.
The first time that Jackson faced a Flores-led defense, he passed for 16.2 yards per attempt with 5 touchdowns.
When he faced Flores again in 2021, that was the night Flores spammed Cover-0 blitzes at Jackson, and he did not have an answer.
Jackson threw for 5.5 Y/A that night, facing Cover 0 on a career-high 21 snaps.
They have not played since.
Will Flores dust off a game plan from four years ago?
Ironically, Jackson has still had his most significant issues against man blitzes.
Under Monken, Jackson has completed 55.4% of his passes for only 4.6 yards per pass attempt against Cover 0.
Man coverage blitzes have been the only thing to slow Jackson down in recent years.
Jackson is still posting 7.5 Y/A against man blitzes since the start of last year (13th), but compare that to a league-high 12.0 Y/A against zone blitzes or a league-high 9.7 Y/A against zone coverage in general.
The Vikings are 21st in rate of man coverage this season (18.2%) and 31st in rate of man coverage blitzes (20.9%).
For what it is worth, Minnesota is third in the NFL in rate of Cover 0 snaps (38), so it is still part of the bag for Flores.
Flores and Minnesota had a great game plan last week in moving Jared Goff off his spot, but when they failed to disrupt him, this defense was dissected.
Goff was 18 of 24 (75%) for 212 yards (8.8 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns when kept clean last weekend.
That has been the story for Minnesota in bulk this season.
When their exotic pressures are not working, they have been gashed.
Without pressure, they are allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt (29th) and a 5.8% touchdown rate (20th).
They still allowed 19.4 fantasy points to Goff after allowing QB1 weeks to Justin Herbert (25.3 points) and Jalen Hurts (25.0) the previous two weeks.
J.J. McCarthy: Making his first start since Week 2, McCarthy found his way to a good fantasy line.
He ended the week QB14 (18.9 points).
His two best weeks (albeit in only three starts) have come with a rushing touchdown.
McCarthy was still nondescript as a passer.
He completed 14 of 25 passes (56%) for 143 yards (5.7 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception.
From a fantasy stance, McCarthy’s passing output per attempt is below Michael Penix and right above Justin Fields and Geno Smith.
He has scored 11.7, 2.3, and 11.7 passing points in his three starts.
His sample is smaller, but nothing we have seen from McCarthy so far has given us confidence to use him as more than a QB2 in hopes that we get a rushing score.
The Vikings have been conservative with McCarthy, as well.
Minnesota has a 55.3% dropback rate in McCarthy’s three starts compared to a 67.2% rate in the other weeks.
This Baltimore defense has adjusted around personnel changes and is getting healthier.
They have allowed 7.0 yards per pass attempt (16th), a 64.4% completion rate (12th), and a 1% touchdown rate (2nd) over their past three games against Matthew Stafford, Caleb Williams, and Tua Tagovailoa.
The one thing Baltimore is still struggling with is rushing the passer.
They only have a 25% pressure rate in those games, the lowest rate in the league over the past four weeks.
In an effort to improve in that area, they traded for Dre’Mont Jones.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 10 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Raiders @ Broncos | Thursday Night Football |
| Falcons @ Colts | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Giants @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Commanders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Chargers | Sunday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Packers | Monday Night Football |