NFL Red-Zone Stats Vs. Expectation: Running Backs

Every offseason, I break down the NFL offensive trends that will shape the upcoming season, including a deep dive into running back red-zone performance.

The goal for these articles is straightforward.

We are monitoring the league's current state to identify any outliers, which we can then incorporate into the upcoming season while also gauging league trends.

While we have already examined all the positional tiers for 2026, it is always beneficial to review the league's overall landscape.

Every NFL season is unique, so this is always a great way to lay some groundwork.

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Red-Zone Fantasy Points Vs. Expectation

We are following up on our examination of league and team performance in the red zone last season and extending it to individual player analysis.

In that top-down team post, we covered not only how the majority of touchdowns scored in the NFL come from inside the red zone, but also that not all red-zone touches are created equal.

We also showcased in that post how NFL offenses have become more reliant on red-zone production as part of their scoring output.

The discovery of true regression candidates in this area of the field could prove pivotal, given the rising need for offenses to succeed in the red zone.

To reiterate some notes from that article that relate to rushing production near the end zone since 2010:

• 86.4% of all rushing touchdowns come from inside the red zone. In 2025, that rate was 84.1%.
• 73.9% of all rushing touchdowns come from inside the 10-yard line. In 2025, that rate was 73.1%.
• 57.1% of all rushing touchdowns come from inside the 5-yard line. In 2025, that rate was 53.5%.
• 32.5% of all rushing touchdowns overall come from the 1-yard line. In 2025, that rate was 28.6%.

We inherently know that a rushing attempt from the 1-yard line is far more valuable than a carry from the 19-yard line, but they are often lumped together in analysis.

A carry from the 1-yard line is worth six times as much for fantasy production compared to an attempt from the 19-yard line.

With that, the next step is to dive into red-zone production versus expectations for fantasy skill players based on their actual opportunities, and weigh where those opportunities came from inside the red zone.

2025 RB Red-Zone Fantasy Points Vs. Expectation