One remaining obstacle we still face in the fantasy community, as both content providers and consumers, is understanding that rankings, projections, tiers, and average draft positions serve different purposes and are not interchangeable.
I penned an offseason lead covering projections and their application, which you can review here.
While those projections give us a range of season long production and have implications for listing players in a linear format (rankings), even when those full season numbers are accurate, they fail to capture the overall weekly impact and the pockets of production that are relevant to our weekly game of fantasy football.
There are very few players at each position that smash weekly throughout the fantasy season at the highest level, and we are hopeful to be in on the remainder of players when they strike the hottest.
That is where player tiers come in.
2025 Fantasy Football Rankings
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Many player tiers available are simply rankings divided into sections.
While the rankings are more focused on a probable tally of season long output for a week to week game, I prefer to structure my tiers based on how similarly players accrue their fantasy points and by player archetypes.
By doing this, I can identify actionable gaps in player pricing per tier, which in turn allows for arbitrage in fantasy drafts while also highlighting some longer-odds players who have more potential than initially perceived.
Arbitrage in fantasy football is driven strongly by how production is accrued, and the order of those players (rankings) is driven by the opportunities (on a player and team level) that each player receives.
Our projections are inherently going to be wrong on those projected opportunities often.
A multitude of factors influence team situations.
Game script, injuries to a player himself, injuries to surrounding teammates, ineffective play, player breakouts, and so on.
That is just the game through injuries, performance variance, and fluctuation.
Understanding how a player is used enables us to identify prospects to buy into the variance in his performance across opportunities.
If we are wrong on the opportunity projection, then a lower-tiered player could be an arbitrage opportunity.
While there is no direct overlap with the individual player rankings, the order of these tiers reflects how I prioritize drafting positions from an archetypal stance.
While that may be confusing for a player ranked highly on a linear list versus a specific tier he is in, I will do my best to incorporate detailed thoughts regarding draft capital in those events throughout the player breakdowns.
One final note: I will be updating and adding analysis to these tiers throughout the summer.
With that introduction to the methodology used, let's proceed to the actual player analysis.
Tier 1 Fantasy Football RBs:
- Bijan Robinson
- Christian McCaffrey
- Saquon Barkley
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- De’Von Achane
- Ashton Jeanty
We are kicking things off with the group of players who I believe are drawing the best odds of being the top scoring running back overall in 2025.
Nearly every player here possesses the ability to contribute in all facets of the offense, keeping them open to receiving volume and opportunities for fantasy points, regardless of the game script.
Bijan Robinson
Bye: Week 5
Robinson has kicked off his career as the RB9 and RB3 in overall scoring.
He took the next step forward as a front end producer in his second season, turning 365 touches into 1,887 yards and 15 scores.
Robinson took over more work as the season progressed and showed us his actual fantasy upside when given the keys to the offense.
Through eight games, Robinson accounted for 64.5% of the backfield touches, averaging 98.8 yards per game over that period.
He then handled 72.7% of the backfield opportunities over the final nine games, averaging 121.9 yards per game during those weeks.
He also scored multiple touchdowns in four of those final nine games, 10 total touchdowns over that span.
He was RB1 overall in expected points per game over that stretch and RB2 in actual points scored.
Other backs in this tier are attached to offenses I have more confidence in than Atlanta’s, but Robinson checks the boxes we are looking for when investing in an early-round running back.
He is 23 years old with an elite pedigree and already has front end production at the NFL level.
Christian McCaffrey
Bye: Week 14
Many gamers will avoid McCaffrey, trying not to lose, but he remains a play to win selection.
The risk versus reward factor will not be for everyone, but McCaffrey still has a pipeline to be the top scoring running back without much squinting.
He has finished as the RB1 or RB2 in overall scoring in his past four complete seasons.
2024 was all but a lost season.
He only appeared in four games, playing a career-low 167 offensive snaps.
He missed the first eight weeks of the season with an Achilles injury and then the final five games with a PCL injury.
McCaffrey turned 29 this June with three years remaining on his current contract.
The 49ers will still run this offense through him.
Offensive coordinator Klay Kubiak has already noted the plan is still to “get him the ball as much as we can.”
The 49ers have the league’s best schedule and are still a front end scoring offense.
Even with all of their problems last season, they were still fourth in expected touchdowns scored and are currently projected to be the ninth-highest scoring offense in the league based on existing Vegas lines.
Part of why the 49ers had their red zone issues last season was due to the absence of McCaffrey.
When he was available, we still saw the front end usage we are looking for.
In his two games played with Brock Purdy and Trent Williams, McCaffrey handled 90.5% and 85.2% of the backfield touches.
He had 19.4% of the team's targets in those games, clearing 100 yards from scrimmage in both outings.
Week 12 was a throwaway game for the San Francisco offense without Purdy and Williams, and then McCaffrey posted 67 yards on 9 touches before his PCL injury sidelined him in Week 13.
Even his largest detractors will acknowledge the upside McCaffrey has.
The reason gamers are bypassing him has more to do with his age and injury history.
I tend to play fantasy football on the injury-agnostic side, looking to avoid players who are already injured, but not attempting to predict future injuries.
That said, there is no doubt that McCaffrey comes with added baggage in this department.
While McCaffrey has already participated in minicamp this summer, he has changed his routine for preparation and is not currently dealing with any health restrictions.
However, he has still missed double-digit games in three seasons and played seven or fewer games in four of his 10 seasons.
His Achilles injury may be overstated on the 2025 impact, but it does not change the fact that even if you alleviate concerns over that one injury, he has dealt with a plethora of lower-body ailments and has the largest injury-related concern of any early-round fantasy pick.
Saquon Barkley
Bye: Week 9
Barkley is coming off a historic season, racking up 2,283 yards on offense with 15 touchdowns.
He led the NFL in rushing attempts (345) and rushing yards (2,005) while also sitting out Week 18.
Barkley had a career-high 42% success rate as a runner.
13.4% of his runs went for 10 or more yards, the highest career rate.
He averaged 2.64 yards before contact per run, which is also the highest rate of his career.
23.8% of his runs resulted in a first down or touchdown: surprise, the highest rate of his career.
Only 17.1% of his runs failed to gain yardage, the lowest career rate.
Barkley only faced a light box on 18.6% of his runs, which was 41st in the league.
However, with teams forced to come up and defend the run while also accounting for Jalen Hurts, that is how you break long runs when you can get to the second level untouched.
Barkley had 1,072 yards rushing on his 46 gains of 10 or more yards.
He had 7 touchdown runs from outside the red zone, the most since Chris Johnson in 2009 (8).
Barkley had 1,072 yards rushing on gains of 10 or more yards, trailing only Adrian Peterson in 2012 (1,428), Johnson in 2009 (1,231), and Jamal Lewis in 2003 (1,134) for a season in the 2000s.
Those explosive runs addressed some of the concerns we had about Barkley joining the Eagles, specifically the potential loss of receiving work and short scoring opportunities.
Barkley was targeted on a career low of 14.7% of his routes.
His previous low before joining the Eagles was 19.6%.
That rate was 12.2% when the Eagles had A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert available.
Barkley is capable as a pass catcher, and as we highlighted in the quarterback tiers, we are expecting the Eagles to throw more in 2025.
That said, it is harder to see Barkley jumping those other pass catchers on the target tree and the team needing him to be used as a pass catcher to the degree his offenses in New York needed.
That alone could be a case for Barkley to belong in Tier 2 from an archetype standpoint, as opposed to this one.
However, we also have multiple seasons now in which Barkley was the overall RB1 scorer, which places him here.
Jalen Hurts and the Tush Push also impacted Barkley.
He had 3 rushing attempts from the one-yard line while Hurts had 19.
When you have a season like Barkley’s, you will, of course, hear about the upcoming regression expected to take place.
Special seasons are hard to replicate, something we have long lived at the running back position.
The RB1 overall has not repeated in back-to-back seasons since 2002-2003.
Barkley is coming off 482 touches, including the postseason.
That was the most touches for a player in a full season since DeMarco Murray’s 497 touches in 2014.
There have been 50 other seasons in the 2000s in which a running back cleared 400 touches in a season.
Only seven of those backs came back the following season and averaged more fantasy points per game.
Although there is a correlation here, the causation is still being overstretched.
Running backs don’t get injured or decline because of the number of touches they have.
It is always the next touch that matters.
The risk is there on each touch for an NFL player, even if the total is reduced.
When the dust settles, you should be drafting running backs based on talent and opportunity.
Barkley still has a complete blend of talent, per-play upside, an effective offensive line, and an overall strong offensive attachment in place.
This is another yearly reminder that the word “regression” is not a complete boogeyman. We are only using it to explain that Barkley’s 2024 season was a perfect storm.
We don’t get those points this year, meaning that the field at running back will provide a larger challenge to him in 2025.
Barkley can have a reduction in output while remaining an effective fantasy asset.
On that same list of backs who reached 400 touches in a season, 70% were still RB1 scorers on a per-game basis the following season.
Jahmyr Gibbs
Bye: Week 8
Gibbs has been RB8 and RB2 in PPR points per game in his first two seasons.
He ended his second season in the league with 1,929 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns on 302 touches.
No running back with as many touches as Gibbs totaled averaged more yards per touch (6.4).
Out of 46 running backs with 100 or more rushes last season, Gibbs posted:
- 5.6 yards per rush (3rd)
- 0.14 EPA per rush (1st)
- 16.4% rate of runs for 10 or more yards (1st)
- 2.31 yards before contact per rush (3rd)
- 3.34 yards after contact per rush (12th)
- 28% of his runs result in a first down or touchdown (4th)
Gibbs had 14 runs of 20 or more yards, which trailed only Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry.
We know Gibbs is an elite talent capable of posting an RB1 overall season.
We have seen it on display when he has had the backfield to himself.
He has averaged a robust 27.4 points per game in weeks when David Montgomery is not active.
Montgomery is the hangup when looking at Gibbs' full season runout.
With Montgomery active, Gibbs has averaged 16.9 points per game.
That would still have been RB11 last season, but it highlights that while Montgomery is still here, he is a potential thorn in Gibbs' side as the RB1 overall.
That, paired with the expectation of Detroit experiencing scoring regression, Ben Johnson‘s departure, and the loss of two interior offensive linemen this offseason in Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler, does add some volatility for Gibbs.
However, the per-play upside for Gibbs could also mean that new offensive coordinator John Morton wants to give him more work, and this is not as tight a split as it was in the past two seasons.
Those are all variables that will have to play out, but we know what type of player we are betting on with Gibbs as a high-floor, high-upside pick.
De’Von Achane
Bye: Week 12
Achane has turned in RB5 and RB6 scoring seasons to open his career, but he has done it in two completely different fashions.
After a hyper-efficient rookie campaign propelled by chunk plays, Achane was a volume-based asset in 2024.
After one of the all-time seasons per rush by a rookie in 2023, Achane’s efficiency per opportunity took a significant hit in 2024.
| Year | YPC | EPA/Att | Success% | 10+% | Stuff% | YBC/Att | YAC/Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 7.8 | 0.28 | 53.4% | 21.6% | 15.5% | 2.67 | 5.10 |
| 2024 | 4.5 | -0.07 | 39.9% | 10.3% | 24.1% | 1.56 | 2.91 |
Out of 46 running backs to run the ball 100-plus times, Achane’s rate of runs that failed to gain yardage was ahead of only Nick Chubb (26.5%) and Cam Akers (26.9%).
Achane was hit at or behind the line on 44.1% of his runs last season compared to 33% as a rookie.
He still averaged 7.2 YPC when contacted beyond the LOS (11th), but he went from leading the league in the rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards down to 28th last season due to the play of his offensive line.
Despite the drop in efficiency, there were positives from Achane in 2024.
After only 130 touches as a rookie, he climbed to 281 touches last season.
Handling a full workload, Achane showed he could stand up to an even more immense workload.
He appeared in all 17 games. His only missed time was due to a concussion after a rookie season filled with soft-tissue injuries.
He was also a major contributor to the passing game.
Achane caught 78 passes for 592 yards and 6 touchdowns, all of which led the league at his position.
Although Achane’s efficiency dropped in 2024, there were splits to acknowledge here.
Achane was RB1 in expected points per game (19.8) in the weeks Tua Tagovailoa played in and RB2 in actual points per game (22.6) in those weeks.
In the games without Tagovailoa, Achane was RB34 in expected points per game (10.0) and RB42 in actual points per game (8.6).
We also need to discuss the offensive line, as it impacted his receiving spike and his decline in rushing efficiency.
Say what you want about Austin Jackson in pass protection, but Achane and Miami also ran a lot better last season when they had Jackson on the field.
| Split | Rush | Success% | Explosive% | Stuff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| With Jackson | 92 | 43.5% | 14.1% | 21.7% |
| Without Jackson | 111 | 36.9% | 7.2% | 26.1% |
We have a sample size that is nearly even, with a significant gap in terms of efficiency.
Without Jackson on the field, Achane’s explosive run rate and success rate plummeted.
With Jackson on the field, his explosive run rate would have been sixth in the league, and his success rate would have been 10th, which is a lot closer to his rookie season.
This is still an explosive back.
On top of Jackson returning this season, you can make a case that the interior of this offensive line is better with the additions of James Daniels and Jonah Savaiinaea at the guard spots.
The loss of Terron Armstead is a hit, but I do buy that there is a low bar to clear for this line as a whole to play better than what they put on the field in 2024.
If Miami does run the ball better, that lowers the need to facilitate short targets to Achane.
However, the loss of Jonnu Smith and his unique usage as a pass catcher does help him maintain a high floor at the position out of the backfield.
As outlined in the tight end tiers, new addition Darren Waller has not been used around the line as much as Smith was last season.
Achane was split out wide for 9.3% of his snaps (RB6) and in the slot for 19.8% (RB2).
I have been close to moving Achane over Gibbs outright since the latter plays with a viable running back that has limited him to a degree, and Achane has a cleaner path out of the box to lead his backfield.
Even though I have not done that, that thought process has reinforced my view of him as a first-round pick who can compete with the top players in the position.
If there is one variable in play that I could see as a potential thorn, it is that when Raheem Mostert was available last season, he edged out Achane in attempts inside the five-yard line 6 to 4.
If Ollie Gordon has a role as a rookie, it could be in short-yardage situations.
His 226-pound frame may be appealing to the team, offering them opportunities to utilize him over players like 188-pound Achane and 210-pound Jaylen Wright.
Ashton Jeanty
Bye: Week 8
In perhaps the most obvious fit in this class, Jeanty was selected at No. 6 by the Raiders.
As a 19-year-old freshman in 2022, Jeanty posted 976 total yards and 7 touchdowns on 170 touches.
He leaped forward after that, producing 1,916 total yards and 19 touchdowns on 263 touches in 2023 before flirting with all-time production this past season, exploding for 2,739 total yards and 30 touchdowns on 397 touches.
He rushed for over 100 yards in all 14 games this past season.
He rushed for 7.0 yards per carry, tied for the highest rate in the class with TreVeyon Henderson.
Henderson had 230 fewer attempts than Jeanty.
Jeanty handled a class-high 49.7% of his team's touches, accounting for 41.9% of Boise State’s total yardage, the highest rate in the country last season.
Only 34.5% of his rushing attempts came with a light box (six or fewer defenders), the second-lowest rate in this class.
He forced a missed tackle on 33.2% of his rushing attempts, which was second in this draft class.
The only player with a higher rate also had 193 fewer attempts.
Jeanty posted 4.8 yards after contact per rush, the highest rate for any running back in this draft.
On 158 runs when hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, Jeanty averaged 2.9 yards per rush.
While that number may not pop on the surface, no running back with that many runs hit at or behind the line has posted a higher YPC over the past decade.
There have only been four seasons over that span in which a running back posted more yards per carry with 100 or more runs hit at or behind the line: Zack Moss in 2019 (3.4 YPC), Omarion Hampton in 2023 (3.1 YPC), Jonathan Taylor in 2017 (3.1 YPC), and Rashaad Penny in 2017 (3.0 YPC).
Jeanty’s ability to create yards was never on more display than in his final game against Penn State.
The box score shows that Jeanty only averaged 3.5 YPC, but his offensive line was entirely outmatched.
Jeanty forced 19 missed tackles on his 33 touches in that game, posting 81 of his 104 rushing yards after contact.
He averaged 5.5 yards per rush after contact in that game despite the 3.5 YPC in the box score.
When Jeanty was not hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, he posted a robust 9.9 yards per rush.
He rushed for 1,366 yards on runs of 15 or more yards alone, 505 more yards than the next closest player in this draft.
If you had to find some red on his ledger, Jeanty was not overly impressive in the passing game this past season.
He had a 9.1% drop rate (5th-highest in this class) and was 27th out of 31 running backs invited to the Combine in yards per route run (0.54).
His 2024 production in the passing game was a significant step backward, but he does have that 2023 season to highlight his capability to catch passes.
Jeanty caught 43 passes for 569 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2023.
Going to Las Vegas, Jeanty will completely take over a backfield that was inept last season.
There was no way that Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly would stand for that type of output in their first year with the team.
Even with the NFL devaluing the running back position in the modern era, we have consistently seen that teams will still aggressively draft top-end talent with high-end draft capital, as was the case again.
He is an immediate bellcow and in contention to be in the RB1 conversation should the Raiders take a significant step forward.
We will have to pay for that with Jeanty as RB5 in the current ADP.
That may be an example of Jeanty being drafted near his ceiling, but I do believe it is warranted.
Over the past 10 years, here are the rookie running backs who have been selected as the RB15 or higher.
| Player | Year | RB ADP | Finish | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 2023 | 3 | 9 | 14.5 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 2023 | 13 | 10 | 16.1 |
| Najee Harris | 2021 | 11 | 3 | 17.7 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2020 | 7 | 22 | 13.5 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2018 | 5 | 1 | 24.1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2017 | 11 | 9 | 17.7 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2017 | 12 | 10 | 14.3 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2017 | 13 | 65 | 16.4 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2016 | 3 | 2 | 21.7 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2015 | 15 | 44 | 7.7 |
| Trent Richardson | 2012 | 14 | 7 | 17.0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 2010 | 9 | 29 | 12.2 |
We do not have many examples of busts from this group.
Melvin Gordon ran cold in the touchdown department and conceded passing work to Danny Woodhead as a rookie.
Dalvin Cook was hot out of the gates as a rookie until missing the final 12 games with a knee injury.
Ryan Mathews shared work with Mike Tolbert.
The rest of this group all showcased high floors.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the only other back outside of those three who did not finish as an RB1 scorer.
Only two backs here posted over 20 PPR points per game as rookies, but not everyone here shares the exact prospective expectations that Jeanty does.
The ones that most resemble his outlook in terms of prospect score in my model are Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Bijan Robinson.
All of those players ended up as top-10 scorers and firm RB1s, while Barkley and Elliott were front end scorers.
Workhorse backs such as Leonard Fournette, Najee Harris, and Trent Richardson were knocking on that door.
Gamers who drafted Robinson will likely highlight that he was disappointing as a rookie, given the high expectations.
Still, we also saw Tyler Allgeier get 204 touches in Robinson’s rookie season and work in tandem with him after a 1,100-yard rookie season himself.
Who on this Las Vegas roster is pushing for that type of impact on Jeanty?
A year such as Barkley's or Elliott’s rookie seasons would be an apex outcome for Jeanty, but the median outcome likely looks like Fournette or Harris, where the volume can carry him to a high floor.
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