The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals Sunday afternoon game.
| Pittsburgh | Rank | @ | Cincinnati | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | Spread | -6.5 | ||
| 19 | Implied Total | 25.5 | ||
| 20.2 | 21 | Points/Gm | 26.3 | 9 |
| 24.4 | 22 | Points All./Gm | 21.8 | 13 |
| 65.5 | 9 | Plays/Gm | 61.8 | 24 |
| 65.6 | 28 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.4 | 17 |
| 4.8 | 28 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 10 |
| 5.6 | 24 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 21 |
| 36.56% | 31 | Rush% | 40.52% | 20 |
| 63.44% | 2 | Pass% | 59.48% | 13 |
| 44.03% | 23 | Opp. Rush % | 37.19% | 4 |
| 55.97% | 10 | Opp. Pass % | 62.81% | 29 |
- The Bengals have won (and covered) three straight games against the Steelers, their longest win streak in the rivalry since winning six straight versus Pittsburgh over the 1988-1990 seasons.
- Cincinnati scored 21 touchdowns from outside of the red zone in 2020, tied for the third-most by a team in the 2000s.
- Only the Bears allowed a higher sack rate per dropback than Cincinnati at 9.6%.
- When the Bengals did not allow or take on a drive, they ranked second in the NFL in points per drive (2.83) and touchdown rate per drive (34.1%) as opposed to ranking 11th in points per drive (1.08) and 12th in touchdown rate per drive (9.6%) when they did have a possession with a sack.
- The Steelers averaged just 4.1 yards per play on first downs in 2021, the fewest in the league.
- No team allowed more yardage on explosive carries (runs of 10-plus yards) than the Steelers in 2021 (1,282 yards).
- 14.5% of the carries against the Steelers gained 10 or more yards, 31st in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Joe Burrow: Burrow took off in Year 2, leading the league in completion percentage (70.4%) and yards per attempt (9.0), the first passer to lead the league in both categories since Drew Brees in 2017.
Burrow had significant spikes in touchdown rate (6.5%) on his way to a QB10 finish in points per game.
Burrow scored 17.6 (QB17) and 16.4 (QB11) fantasy points in his two matchups against the Steelers in 2021, limited to just 42 total pass attempts in those matchups as the Bengals controlled game scripts.
Pittsburgh attempted to blitz Burrow on 32.6% of his dropbacks compared to 23.0% from everyone else and they paid the price as many teams did when sending extra rushers against Burrow. Against the blitz versus Pittsburgh, Burrow threw for 11.3 yards per attempt with three passing touchdowns compared to 7.6 Y/A and one touchdown when the Steelers did not blitz.
I believe the Bengals are a team that is going to see more two-high safety looks in 2022, but I do not believe the Steelers are an organization that makes wholesale changes to their approaches very often.
Pittsburgh played Cover 1 (30.4%) or Cover 3 (32.6%) on nearly two-thirds of their snaps in those matchups with Burrow connecting on 23-of-27 passes for 268 yards (9.9 Y/A) and three scores against those coverages.
Burrow is a back-end QB1 with higher upside. The big thing here for Burrow reaching a high-end ceiling will once again be passing volume with the Bengals as large home favorites. Especially if the Steelers cannot stop the run again in 2022.
