The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Jets and Steelers.

Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

PittsburghRank@NY JetsRank
-3.0 Spread3.0
20.5 Implied Total17.5
21.920Points/Gm19.924
20.87Points All./Gm23.819
62.614Plays/Gm59.430
61.413Opp. Plays/Gm62.824
5.125Off. Yards/Play5.221
5.416Def. Yards/Play52
48.31%5Rush%35.94%29
51.69%28Pass%64.06%4
41.77%9Opp. Rush %47.19%26
58.23%24Opp. Pass %52.81%7

  • Pittsburgh is 11-6-1 (.639) under Mike Tomlin in season openers, sixth in the league over that span.
  • That includes a 7-1-1 record as a favorite, third in the league over that period.
  • The Steelers forced a three-and-out on 34.6% of opponent possessions in 2024, fourth in the league.
  • 46.1% of Pittsburgh's scoring plays in 2024 were touchdowns, ranking 30th in the league.
  • Pittsburgh was one of three teams that did not score a touchdown on any opening possession.
  • The Jets scored a touchdown on 2 of 17 opening drives, 28th in the league.
  • The Steelers averaged a league-worst 4.5 yards per play on first downs in 2024.
  • The Jets allowed a league-low 4.3 yards per play on first downs last season.
  • Pittsburgh posted -78.5 expected points added as a rushing offense in 2024, 29th in the league.
  • The Jets allowed 0.89 yards before contact on running back runs in 2024, second in the league.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Justin Fields: Fields is getting another lifeline as a starter in the NFL with the Jets.

Fields was the QB6 and QB13 in points per game in his final two full seasons as a starter with Chicago, and he was QB8 in points per game with Pittsburgh before being benched last season.

There were some small strides made with Fields as a passer before his benching in Pittsburgh.

Before giving way to Russell Wilson, Fields completed a career-high 65.8% of his passes, as Pittsburgh had him throw to the short area of the field more than in Chicago.

Fields averaged a career-low 7.8 air yards per pass attempt.

The Jets are ushering in a new regime under Aaron Glenn and offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand.

The hope is that Engstrand can continue to develop the quick game and short-area passing that has held Fields back to this point.

We only had a small sample in the preseason, but it was in line with what we have seen from Fields to this point in the league.

He averaged only 3.9 air yards per attempt in the preseason, completing 4 of 9 passes (44.4%) for 46 yards (5.1 yards per attempt).

22.2% of his passes were off target.

The Jets ran the ball at a 67.9% rate on his 28 snaps this preseason, with only 33.3% of the yardage they gained on Fields’ snaps coming through the air.

However, as a runner, he rushed three times for 19 yards and a touchdown.

Fields is back on the board as a floor-based fantasy option with added upside through his rushing ability, but this is not a matchup to anticipate ceiling production.

This is the lowest game total of Week 1 by a wide margin.

Pittsburgh ranked eighth in the league last season in passing points allowed per attempt (0.392).

They ranked ninth in the league in pressure rate (36%).

Since entering the NFL, Fields ranks 29th in rating under pressure (63.1), completing 45.9% of his passes (32nd) for 5.8 yards per attempt (25th) with a 4.1% touchdown rate (20th). He has taken a sack on 27.9% of his pressures (36th).

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers will be 42 this December, finding a new home in Pittsburgh.

After a slow start last season with the Jets (a double-revenge game narrative), he played his best football as the season ended, throwing 18 touchdowns and 4 interceptions over the final 10 games.

However, he still only posted 6.8 yards per attempt over that span.

Rodgers logged six QB1 scoring weeks in 2024, but the lack of front-end upside was limited, with just one of those being higher than QB8.

That was while the Jets were third in the NFL in dropback rate (65.8%), and he had better pass catchers than what he will inherit with the Steelers.

Rodgers himself is a slow-paced quarterback who loves to eat the clock and finds himself in a low-volume Arthur Smith offense in a tougher division than last year.

Smith has never run an offense that has thrown the football at a rate above pass rate expectations, adjusting for game scripts.

His past three teams have thrown the ball 7%, 9%, and 13% fewer times than expected.

With his lack of rushing, Rodgers is stuck as a fantasy QB2.

This is not a great spot to chase production.

The Jets collapsed last season defensively after the firing of Robert Saleh, but there is still a lot of talent on that side of the ball.

Aaron Glenn and Steve Wilks combining to lead this defense should result in an aggressive approach, given their respective track records.

During his time with Detroit, Glenn’s defenses ranked sixth in the league in blitz rate (30.5%).

Wilks has sent extra defenders on 31.4% of his snaps at his last three stops.

Rodgers struggled when blitzed last season, completing 61.4% of his passes (21st) for 5.8 yards per attempt (32nd).

Rodgers has also been a slow starter himself.

Over his past three Week 1 outings (excluding the year he was injured on the second snap), Rodgers has thrown for 167, 195, and 133 yards, finishing as the QB26, QB32, and QB35 in weekly scoring those games.

Running Back

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More Week 1 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:

MatchupTime
Cowboys @ Eagles -- FREENFL Kickoff Game
Chiefs vs. Chargers -- FREEFriday Night Football
Bucs @ FalconsSunday -- 1 p.m. ET
Bengals @ BrownsSunday -- 1 p.m. ET
Dolphins @ ColtsSunday -- 1 p.m. ET
Raiders @ PatriotsSunday -- 1 p.m. ET
Cardinals @ SaintsSunday -- 1 p.m. ET
Steelers @ JetsSunday -- 1 p.m. ET
Giants @ CommandersSunday -- 1 p.m. ET
Panthers @ JaguarsSunday -- 1 p.m. ET
Titans @ BroncosSunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET
49ers @ SeahawksSunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET
Lions @ PackersSunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET
Texans @ RamsSunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET
Ravens @ Bills -- FREESunday Night Football
Vikings @ Bears -- FREEMonday Night Football