In this year‘s Super Bowl Showdown, the Cincinnati Bengals against the Los Angeles Rams. For a breakdown of the big game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.
The Rams are currently -4 and offer most of the best value plays too, so rostership should skew far more towards them than is optimal. This should allow for underdog leverage, as I usually recommend taking advantage of.
The onslaught build featuring five Rams (>8%) is expected to be utilized for more than the five Bengals onslaught (>1%). Builds with four from one team are nearly double for the Rams (>31%). The even 3–3 build (>42%) should be the most popular. Simply going underweight on builds with three or four Rams will be a great starting point to differentiate lineups, especially if building around a Bengals win.
Cooper Kupp Will be the most popular CPT (38%) and overall (78%) by a significant margin. The next group of players is tightly clustered between 11-7%, in descending order of projected CPT rostership: Cam Akers, Tee Higgins, Matthew Stafford, Jamar Chase, Joe Mixon, Joe Burrow.
There will be more casual DFS players with chalky lineups than any other slate this season, as well as more lineups in general and more duplicates. To take down anything close to a solo, you’ll have to take differentiation strategies to an extreme. Methods of doing this include using zero QBs, going heavy on 5-1 onslaughts, building underdog-heavy, leaving significant salary unspent, and more.
With Kupp being the most popular, you could pivot to Odell Beckham Jr. or even Van Jefferson to further differentiate. With Chase and Higgins among the more popular options, you could opt for Tyler Boyd or C.J. Uzomah instead. An option that I really like is fading Akers while going overweight on Sony Michel and Darrell Henderson Jr. Akers has been inefficient and suffered from fumbling issues in recent weeks. Henderson’s return makes this an RB committee situation with plans to ride the hot hand, so I love the leverage opportunity on one of the more popular options. Keep in mind that you don’t have to be all that contrarian at CPT, so players like Chase, Burrow, and Stafford are great options if you differentiate in at least a couple flex spots.
- Matt Gay ($3800)
- Rams DST ($3400)
- Cam Akers ($6400)
- Sony Michel ($5000)
- Bengals DST ($3200)
DK Build Ideas
- Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
- Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB per team and max 3 total
- If CPT QB, include 1+ depth option in stack
- If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
- If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
- Cumulative ownership under 250% (consider lower for this one)
- Leave salary unspent (consider extra for this one)
- Cam Akers ($10,000)
- Van Jefferson ($7000)
- CJ Uzomah ($7500)
- Any RB2 – LAR has both Sony Michel and Darrell Henderson Jr. near each other in both price and projection. Leverage off of Akers chalk
FD Build Ideas
- No K or TE at MVP
- Focus on 3-2 build construction
- No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
- Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
- If WR CPT, boost QB
- QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
- Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
- Don’t force the max salary
For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.