In one of the biggest surprises of the first round, the Rams selected Alabama QB Ty Simpson with the No. 13 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Let's look at the fantasy football outlook for Simpson in Los Angeles, both for seasonal leagues and Dynasty formats.
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Ty Simpson Fantasy Value With the Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford is coming off winning the league’s MVP Award, leading the NFL in passing yardage (4,707 yards) and passing touchdowns (46).
Stafford posted a career-high 7.7% touchdown rate (his previous high was 6.8% in 2021).
Stafford turned 38 in February with one year left on his current contract.
That, paired with one of the weaker backup situations, put Simpson in play to be in an “Aaron Rodgers” type backup role to open his career.
Simpson is a former 5-star recruit who bided his time at Alabama, finally given a chance to start this season after Jalen Milroe exited Alabama.
Simpson’s season could not have started any better.
Over the front half of the college football season, he was considered a contender for QB1 in this draft class and was adjacent to or ahead of Mendoza for some in terms of being the top quarterback in this class.
Whereas Mendoza closed the season strongly against high-end competition, Simpson dropped off.
Through the opening eight games last season, Simpson had completed 67.8% of his passes for 8.4 yards per pass attempt with 20 touchdowns to just one interception.
He threw multiple passing touchdowns in all eight games.
Then over the final seven games, Simpson completed 60.3% of his passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt, throwing 8 touchdowns to 4 interceptions.
He threw one or fewer touchdown passes in five of those seven games.
Simpson dealt with a plethora of ailments as the season wore on.
He had a back injury at the end of October, elbow bursitis for the final three weeks, and then suffered a fractured rib in the Rose Bowl to close his season.
Simpson had gastritis that needed medication, which led to a rumored 20-pound weight loss during the season.
The Alabama run game was non-existent this past season, and Ryan Williams took a massive step back this season from his 2024 output.
There is no shortage of excuses for Simpson’s regression in season, but what we are left with is still a huge question mark, with him entering the league as an older, inexperienced player with no full season in college of sustained production that warrants the use of high draft capital.
He has one of the lightest resumes of any Day 1 selection with only 523 career pass attempts.
Just six quarterbacks in the 2000s have been selected in the first round with fewer pass attempts.
Those were Trey Lance (288), Cam Newton (292), Michael Vick (343), Anthony Richardson (393), Mark Sanchez (487), and Kyler Murray (519).
Nearly all of those quarterbacks had their low passing volume impacted by elite rushing ability.
Sanchez is arguably the closest resemblance to Simpson’s trajectory.
There have been another six quarterbacks selected in the first round with fewer than 600 career attempts.
Those are Mac Jones (556), Akili Smith (571), Mitch Trubisky (572), Carson Wentz (583), Alex Smith (587), and Dwayne Haskins (590).
Combining all of those quarterbacks, we are not working with a high-end hit rate, especially when removing any rushing upside, something we are not counting on from Simpson, who is a traditional dropback passer.
That limited sample gives us a mixed bag with Simpson as a passer as well.
Simpson did have 440 dropbacks against Power Conference competition (second in this class in 2025), but his 71.7% on-target rate in those games ranked 11th in this class, while his 7.3 yards per pass attempt ranked 12th.
Simpson was blitzed on 44.4% of his dropbacks last year, the second-highest rate in the class.
On those blitzes, he averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt, which was 12th out of the 16 quarterbacks invited to the NFL Combine.
Under pressure, Simpson posted 5.9 yards per pass attempt, which was 10th.
Removing screens. Simpson’s 7.6 yards per pass attempt ranked 12th.
Further complicating Simpson’s projection is his lack of elite traits.
At 6-foot-1 and 211 pounds, he lacks prototypical size.
That is not a death knell, but almost every comparable first-round pick who has succeeded in that range of size has possessed mobility and out-of-the-structure creation as a cornerstone to their game.
The most recent example is Caleb Williams (6-foot-1 and 214 pounds), who has struggled in the traditional dropback game aspect through his first two seasons but has tremendous out-of-structure ability.
While Simpson’s overall sample size is small, he was asked to do more translational work on how offenses play in the NFL.
Only 6.5% of his dropbacks were RPO play calls, while he had the most dropbacks under center (48) of this class.
Simpson also had 8.9% of his passes dropped last season, which was the second-highest of this class.
Getting to play with Sean McVay, Simpson will be asked to do the same thing.
McVay altered his offense this season to adjust to the current defensive climate.
Stafford played a career-high 59.6% of his snaps under center this year, which led the league.
Stafford took 250 dropbacks under center.
The next closest quarterback was at 189.
As a byproduct of playing more under center, Stafford used play action on a career-high 36.7% of his pass attempts, which also led the league.
Getting to play under McVay is a massive spike for Simpson’s upside.
We just have to play the waiting game until he gets a chance to start.
Simpson has no 2026 re-draft value, but is an upside QB2 in Dynasty formats.
