Week 11 DFS: Rankings vs Value

Hopefully everyone had a strong start to the season in their seasonal and daily lineups. We are back in Week 11 to identify the best bang for your buck in DFS.

The goal of this article is simple. 

We are taking the industry ranks from Fantasy Pros and my own rankings here on the site and comparing them to the pricing ranks on FanDuel and DraftKings on the Sunday-Monday slates. We are looking at the field of players the industry has come together on as the starting-caliber options at each position and then highlighting which daily sites they have the most value on.

This way, we get the input of the entire field of rankers instead of just mine. Not only for contrast, but to also highlight leverage points. I will also be adding a few player notes in, but to find out my fully detailed thoughts on the players here, check out the Week 11 Worksheet that breaks down each player and game.

Quarterback

Starting off with the quarterbacks, there is a touch of value with Dak Prescott over at DraftKings ($7,200) compared to the rankers and where he is priced at FanDuel. 

Jalen Hurts ($7,700 FanDuel/$6,800 DraftKings) is the first passer below expectations on both sites. The Eagles have reined in Hurts the past three weeks, but he has still been a top-12 scorer in two of those three games. Those games came against defenses that rank 29th, 32nd, and 23rd in DVOA against the run this season, while the Saints are first, so we should some more passing for Hurts on Sunday. The Saints are allowing just 14.6 passing points per game (12th), but they are allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt (25th) and 12.3 yards per completion (27th).

Joe Burrow ($7,400/$6,600) also is priced a bit below rankers on both sites. You surely have been beaten to death this week with how much Cover 3 the Raiders run as they lead the league in that deployment this season. Burrow has only thrown the ball 61 times (21.3% of his passes), but he has been hyper-efficient on those throws, completing 72.1% of his passed for 9.3 yards per pass attempt against Cover 3 this season, rates above his full-season averages regardless of coverage. 

There is a massive gap on Cam Newton on DraftKings ($5,100) compared to everywhere else. Newton is coming off a 2020 season in which he threw just eight touchdown passes and did not throw more than one touchdown in a game until Week 17, but Newton still turned in eight QB1 scoring weeks since he is still a threat with his legs, especially near the end zone as we saw last weekend in his debut. Newton was even the QB17 last week on just nine offensive snaps. Also, keep in mind that Sam Darnold had five rushing touchdowns prior to injury with two on designed runs. Newton gets a positive matchup against a Washington defense that is allowing a league-high 20.1 passing points per game and will be without both Montez Sweat and Chase Young due to injury.

RB1 (1-12)

Looking at the top of the running back position, Dalvin Cook is a relative deal on FanDuel ($8,400) among top-shelf buys. The Packers have been throwing light boxes at recent teams such as the Cardinals, Chiefs, and Seahawks, but if they do that here then the Vikings will challenge them with the run. Cook is coming off a season-high 27 touches last week. He also had six touchdowns in two games against the Packers a year ago. 

FanDuel is also lower on Joe Mixon ($7,600). Since coming back to the lineup fully healthy in Week 6, Mixon has been a top-five scorer in three of his past four games. The Raiders have been beaten up by backs all over the place, allowing 4.6 YPC to backs (24th) and 14.2 rushing points per game to backfields (21st) while also allowing 12.3 receiving points per game (24th) to the position. 

Nick Chubb is set to return this week and he priced down on DraftKings ($7,800) compared to everywhere else. There is some concern returning from COVID for a running back, but if Chubb is ready to roll close to 100%, he returns to a juicy spot as a massive favorite at home against a Detroit defense that has allowed 144.4 yards from scrimmage per game to backfields (24th) and has allowed 16 touchdowns (31st) to opposing running backs.

There will not be a running back more popular this weekend than A.J. Dillon ($7,000/$6,200) after the injury to Aaron Jones last week. Dillon was already receiving an expanded workload over recent weeks and now is set up to be the workhorse of this backfield. Dillon turned a career-high 23 touches last week into 128 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Now, he faces a Minnesota defense that is 31st in EPA against the run. 92.3% of the rushing attempts against Minnesota have gained positive yardage, the highest rate in the league.

Gamers are still high on James Conner ($7,200/$6,100) as an RB1 option. With the Cardinals offense flatlining last week, Conner was caught in the wake, totaling 64 yards on 13 touches. He still was able to salvage his day with an 11-yard touchdown run, his league-leading 12th touchdown on the season. Conner has handled 72.2% and 68.4% of the backfield touches the past two weeks as the feature back.

RB2 (13-24)

Hitting the next tier of backs, David Montgomery ($6,800/$5,500) stands out at the top. Returning to the lineup in Week 9 for the first time since Week 4, Montgomery was right back to being the workhorse for the Bears, playing 85% of the snaps and handling 15-of-19 backfield touches (78.9%) for 80 yards against the Steelers.

Here we are, ready to go down the road with Myles Gaskin ($6,200/$5,700) again. This one is coming from a usage and matchup standpoint because the Dolphins have shown that they really cannot run on anyone so far. Gaskin has rushed for just 3.4 yards per carry this season and has rushed 34 times for 65 yards the past two weeks. That said, he has handled 86.7% and 78.9% of the backfield touches the past two games and the Jets have just been handing out touchdowns to opposing running backs. Running backs have now scored a league-high 20 touchdowns against the Jets, accounted for 62.5% of the touchdowns scored against them, also a league-high.

Industry rankers were waiting on Alvin Kamara to be officially out before adjusting Mark Ingram’s ($6,800/$5,400) ranking, but neither site priced him up accordingly for the potential of Kamara missing another week. Ingram played a season-high 85% of the snaps last week with Kamara sidelined and handled 90% of the backfield touches for the Saints. Ingram only rushed for 47 yards on 14 carries but found the end zone on the ground while catching 4-of-7 targets for 61 yards through the air.

With Elijah Mitchell doubtful, Jeff Wilson ($5,000/$5,100) is once again back in line to carry early down duties for the 49ers. JaMycal Hasty is also sidelined and every time he has been absent, Kyle Juszczyk has served as the long down and distance back, but that still puts Wilson in line to at least take over Mitchell’s vacated role, which has been a solid, rushing dependent RB2. DraftKings at least priced Wilson in the event something like this could happen, but FanDuel has him at the bottom of the barrel. Wilson rushed 10 times for 28 yards on Monday in his first action of the season. The Jaguars have been strong up front, allowing 3.8 YPC to backs (fifth), but they have allowed nine touchdowns on the ground (26th) to opposing backs. 

Looking at some site-specific differences, FanDuel is lower on Michael Carter ($6,600) and Antonio Gibson ($6,700) while DraftKings is below the field on D’Onta Foreman ($4,900).

WR1 (1-12)

We have a major standout at the top of the wide receiver position with A.J. Brown at FanDuel ($7,200). Brown caught just 1-of-4 targets for 25 yards last week, which was his lowest target share (14.8%) in a full game this season. This after receiving 34.9% of the team targets over the previous four games. This week he trades those two tougher matchups for a date with the Texans, who are allowing 9.2 yards per target (29th) and 13.9 yards per catch (25th) to opposing wideouts.

Outside of Brown, both sites are fairly in line with ranking expectations as a whole. We have some minor gaps per site, with FanDuel being lighter on Deebo Samuel ($7,600) and Keenan Allen ($7,100), with the latter playing on Sunday night. 

The largest standout on DraftKings is Chris Godwin ($6,700), but you’ll have to play on slates that include Monday night to fully take advantage. Other than Godwin, DraftKings is lower on CeeDee Lamb ($7,600) and D.K. Metcalf ($6,800) among the wideouts here.

WR2 (13-24)

In the secondary receiver tier, we have a few universal value plays. 

Tyler Lockett ($6,800/$6,000) has lived as a boom-or-bust WR2, posting games of 100, 178, and 142 yards in three contests with 182 yards combined over his other six games played. With just two games with a touchdown grab, Lockett’s weekly floor is lower than Metcalf’s. 

Tee Higgins ($6,500/$5,400) is tracking to be extremely popular this weekend as a value option. Higgins has not crashed a ceiling yet this season, but he has been back to being stable WR2, posting three straight games of 7-62-0, 4-97-0, and 6-78-0. Higgins has not found the end zone since Week 2, but when looking at the wideouts on the team that have benefited the most on the limited sample of Cover 3 the Bengals have faced this year, Higgins leads the team in targets (14), catches (11), and air yards (171). 

I am much higher than the field on Brandin Cooks ($6,600/$6,000). Cooks had another 13 targets (33.3%) prior to the bye, giving him a 31.1% target share on the season, which is third in the league. Taylor has targeted Cooks a team-high 25 times (30.5%) while Cooks has at least five receptions in every game this season except for one. This week, Cooks gets a Tennessee defense that is allowing a league-high 16.2 receptions and 212.7 yards per game to opposing wide receivers while they are also allowing a 5.5% touchdown rate (26th) to wideouts.

No wide receiver may be more popular of a play this week than Michael Gallup ($5,400/$4,200) now that Amari Cooper has been placed on the COVID-IR. Gallup returned to the field for the first time since Week 1, catching 3-of-5 targets for 42 yards. Gallup ran a route on 56.8% of the dropbacks, but that will surely rocket up as Cooper ran a pass route on a team-high 89.2% of the dropbacks last week.

When shopping for values here on each site, Jaylen Waddle ($5,600), and D.J. Moore ($5,900) are better buys on DraftKings while Terry McLaurin ($7,000) and DeVonta Smith ($6,600) are below expectations on FanDuel.

WR3 (25-36)

The WR3 is actually as tight as it’s been all season long. Typically this tier is all over the place with values, but we have one of our leaner weeks of the season. 

Emmanuel Sanders ($5,800/$5,300) reeled in both of his targets for 27 yards last week, giving him six catches for 92 yards over the past three games. Sanders was just targeted eight times the week prior, so there is not a major concern, but in the seven games now in which Sanders has failed to reach the end zone, he is averaging 8.7 PPR points. The Colts have allowed the most passing touchdowns (23) in the league to offer opportunity for those chasing a spike week. 

Jarvis Landry ($6,300/$5,100) has secured 17-of-28 targets for 139 yards since returning in Week 7. He is still commanding a solid target share (24.8% over that span), but the 3.8 catches and 36.5 yards per game Landry is averaging would be career lows if they hold up for the rest of the season. This is a good week to still kick the tires on Landry’s target share as the Lions are 26th in points allowed per target (1.91) to opposing wideouts.

Rashod Bateman ($5,800/$4,500) has been a favorite in this tier for a few weeks and he still is priced in the WR/4/WR5 area on both sites. In Bateman’s four games, he has carried target shares of 22.2%, 14.6%, 19.5%, and 19.5% with at least six targets in each game.

Another Bills wideout appears here in Cole Beasley ($5,700/$4,800) who is always tough to rank and play in DFS. After 24 targets the previous two games, Beasley also saw just two targets come in his direction on Sunday, catching both for 15 yards. The matchup against the Colts is the lifeline to cash in on a spike week game in terms of targets.

Moving into notes on each site, FanDuel is the best place to explore Hunter Renfrow ($6,100) and Marvin Jones ($5,700). DraftKings is lower on Corey Davis ($5,000), and Brandon Aiyuk ($5,000).

Tight End

FanDuel has had enough of pricing T.J. Hockenson ($5,9000) near the top of the position after his goose-egg last week. Hockenson had racked up 28.2%, 28.1%, and 34.4% of the targets over his previous three games, but he has not scored a touchdown since Week 2 and will now have to catch passes from Tim Boyle.

FanDuel is also lower on Pat Freiermuth ($5,200), but you have to include Sunday night slates to get to him. They are also much lower on Zach Ertz ($5,000) who is coming off his highest target share (20.7%) since joining the Cardinals. With all the injuries and absences over the past two weeks, Ertz has run a pass route on 86.7% and 82.9% of the team dropbacks in those games, his highest rates on the season.

Both sites still are slow playing Dan Arnold ($5,400/$4,100) although his price has started to climb. Arnold remained a steady option last week, catching 5-of-7 targets for 67 yards while adding a two-point conversion. Arnold has averaged 7.4 targets per game over his past five games with at least 60 receiving yards in four of those weeks.

Cole Kmet ($5,100/$3,400) is going to be the most popular cheap option in this tier. Kmet is coming off catching 6-of-8 targets for 87 yards in Week 9 against the Steelers. He has seen at least 19.4% of the team targets in each of his past five games. Kmet will look to come out of the bye week building off that game against a Baltimore defense allowing 6.2 receptions (30th), 72,4 yards (30th), and six touchdowns (T-25th) to opposing tight ends.

DST

Wrapping things up with Team DST, FanDuel is the only place that does not have the Titans ($4,600) as the top defense if you want to still pay up, but not top dollar. 

Among teams at the top here, DraftKings is much lower on the Browns ($3,100) than the field. 

The Bills ($4,500/$3,200) are offering a bit of value on both sites as a top-ranked defense.

Reaching the middle of this tier, the Panthers ($4,100/$2,700) as the defense to target while the Eagles ($3,900/$2,900) are not far behind in that area. At the bottom here, Washington ($3,500/$2,400) has a solid gap if paying all the way down and hoping for some return.