Week 11 DFS: Rankings vs Value, Fantasy Football

Hopefully everyone had a strong start to the season in their seasonal and daily lineups. We are back in Week 11 to identify the best bang for your buck in DFS.

The goal of this article is simple. 

We are taking the industry ranks from Fantasy Pros and my own weekly rankings here on the site and comparing them to the pricing ranks on FanDuel and DraftKings Sunday through Monday. This week has four teams on bye and we have a game in Germany early Sunday morning, so we have another thin slate with only 12 games left. 

We are looking at the field of players the industry has come together on as the starting-caliber options at each position and then highlighting which daily sites they have the most value on.

This way, we get the input of the entire field of rankers instead of just mine. This is not only for contrast, but to also highlight leverage points. I will also be adding a few player notes, but to find out my fully-detailed thoughts on the players here, check out the Week 11Worksheet that breaks down each player and game and continues to be updated as news changes things.

Quarterback

Quarterback is largely “pay to play” this weekend. Our multi-week value run on Justin Fields over on DraftKings has finally ended, but he is still the cheapest over there ($7,600).

Dak Prescott ($7,500 FanDuel/$6,600 DraftKings) is the best value play on both sites factoring in expectations. Minnesota is allowing a 67.4% completion rate (26th) and a 7.9 yards per pass attempt (31st). What has saved them is they have allowed a 3.7% touchdown rate (11th) but we have seen some movement there as they have allowed a 5.2% touchdown rate the past three weeks. 

We are catching a bit of value on both Daniel Jones ($5,700) and Marcus Mariota ($5,500) over on DraftKings.

Jones has scored 18.0 or more fantasy points in two of the past three weeks. The Lions are allowing a league-high 8.2 yards per pass attempt paired with a 5.1% touchdown rate (28th). The Lions have also allowed a league-high 41.3 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks. We can even take away last week’s game from Justin Fields as Detroit has allowed all of Jalen Hurts (90 yards), Carson Wentz (23), Geno Smith (49), and Aaron Rodgers (40) all to have multiple rushing points against them. 

Mariota is attached to the second-highest team total on the main slate. The Bears have allowed 8.9 Y/A over the past four weeks while Mariota also comes with his own rushing ability. He is averaging 5.3 rushing points per game.

RB1

The front of the running back position is tight once again this week, but there are some smaller values near the top and then some scattered values depending on which site you are playing on.

Jonathan Taylor ($8,700/$7,800) rushed 22 times for 147 yards while catching two passes for 16 yards. He had his first rushing touchdown since Week 1. Taylor played 94% of the snaps Sunday, second among all backs in Week 10. With Jordan Davis off of the field, the Eagles are 31st in the NFL in success rate on running back carries (53.0%), allowing 5.09 yards per carry (28th) and 1.60 yards before contact (26th) on those carries.

Josh Jacobs ($8,5000/$7,500) remains a small value on both sites, more so on DraftKings. Jacobs handled another 81.8% of the backfield touches, giving him an 83.3% rate, the highest in the league. Jacobs lit up the Broncos in the first matchup between these teams, rushing a season-high 28 times for 144 yards and two touchdowns while catching 5-of-6 targets for 31 yards. 

DraftKings is also the best spot to work in Joe Mixon ($7,400) with some savings. Mixon cashed in all of his regression to the mean at once prior to the bye, scoring five touchdowns and posting 211 total yards. While we cannot anticipate a runback of that line, what makes Mixon more appealing on DraftKings is that he already has 50 targets and 38 catches this season as he is set up to blow away his career highs of 55 targets and 43 receptions in a season. 

FanDuel is lower on Alvin Kamara ($7,500) than the field. With the Saints scoring a touchdown on 2-of-20 drives the past two weeks, Kamara has bottomed out. He has 17 carries for 56 yards the past two weeks, paired with catching just six passes for 51 yards. Kamara is at least a home favorite here to latch onto. We are looking for a similar outcome that we got with James Conner last week against the Rams where he wasn’t efficient but was able to keep stacking carries due to the game script and then was able to punch in his scoring opportunities.

David Montgomery ($6,200/$6,100) can be played at a discount on both sites, but he is priced way down on FanDuel compared to the field. With Khalil Herbert placed on injured reserve, Montgomery is set back up as the bellcow back in a hot Chicago offense that has scored 29 or more points in four consecutive games. Atlanta is allowing 15.4 rushing points per game to opposing backfields, 26th in the league.

RB2

It is another real tight week in terms of pricing for this tier, which was something we had not seen up until last week. 

James Conner is underpriced on FanDuel ($6,800) but he also is not on the main slate. The same is true for Isiah Pacheco ($6,000/$5,300) on both sites. If you want to work either into your player pool and max out their pricing, you will need to play the slates that fold both Prime Time games in.

FanDuel is also a touch cheaper than the market on Cordarrelle Patterson ($6,700). Coming off a mini-bye, I would anticipate Patterson to have a larger workload on Sunday than last week’s short turnaround right after returning from injured reserve. 60.7% (17-of-28) of the touchdowns allowed by the Bears have come via rushing, the highest rate in the league.

Devin Singletary ($6,400/$5,800) gets an amazing draw here if he can flirt with 15-plus touches. Cleveland is allowing 5.23 YPC to backs (29th), ranking 30th in the league in success rate against running back runs (54.0%) and 31st in yards allowed before contact (2.10) on those carries. The Browns also are not only allowing efficient runs, but they have also allowed a league-high 15 touchdowns to opposing running backs. 

Antonio Gibson ($6,600/$5,600) has more universal appeal than Brian Robinson since Gibson has been involved as a pass catcher, but Robinson is still priced way down on DraftKings ($5,300) below expectations even in PPR formats. There is meat on the bone here for both backs. Houston is allowing 5.45 YPC to backs (31st) paired with facing a league-high 28.7 rushing attempts per game from running backs. Add on that they have allowed a league-high 13 rushing touchdowns to the position. Putting all of those things together, Houston is allowing 24.3 rushing points per game to backs, the most in the league.

WR1

We have a ton of elite wideouts on bye this week paired with the injury to Cooper Kupp. That has created a unique week of wide receiver rankings compared to others once you clear the best of the position.

At the top, you can still grab some value on CeeDee Lamb ($8,100/$7,500). Lamb now leads all wide receivers in team target share (32.1%), is fourth in the share of air yards (41.3%), and is third in target rate per route run (30.1%). With Dallas having a season-high 48 dropbacks last week, all of those came together for a massive opportunity. Minnesota is allowing 9.2 yards per target (29th) to opposing wide receivers while allowing 17.1 points per game to opposing WR1 targets (26th).

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800/$7,200) continued to just soak up targets, catching 10-of-11 targets for 119 yards against the Bears. The Giants blitz on a league-high 45.9% of passing plays. St. Brown is second among all wide receivers in target rate per route against the blitz (40.3%) and has an insane 44.3% team target share when he has been on the field against the blitz.

DraftKings is well below the field on Terry McLaurin ($5,900). Over the past four weeks, McLaurin has 31.9% of the Washington targets (fourth among wideouts), 55.8% of the air yards (first), and has been targeted on 27.1% of his routes (sixth). Houston only faces 14.9 targets per game to opposing wideouts because they are getting run on and trailing games so frequently, but they are allowing a league-high 9.7 yards per target and 15.1 yards per catch to wide receivers. 

FanDuel is lower on Chris Olave ($6,900) much like with Alvin Kamara earlier. Olave still ran a route on 87.1% of the dropbacks last week, we just need this offense to be better.  Wideouts have 65.0% of the receptions against the Rams, the highest rate in the league. They are 30th in receptions allowed per game (14.7) to opposing wideouts while they rank 29th in points allowed per game to opposing WR1 targets (18.4).

WR2

A lot of names that are typically in our WR3 tier have been elevated this week due to the landscape. 

Courtland Sutton ($7,000/$6,000) could be the last Denver wide receiver standing this week if Jerry Jeudy is sidelined. In the three games that Jeudy played fewer than 50% of the snaps this season, Sutton has seen 39.2%, 31.3%, and 28.2% of the team targets. Sutton caught 5-of-7 targets for 52 yards and his lone touchdown on the season when he faced the Raiders in Week 4. 

Michael Pittman ($6,700/$6,100) got a bump with the Colts turning back to Matt Ryan. He has 26.3% of the team targets in his games played while seeing eight or more targets in 7-of-9 games. Pittman has five or more receptions in 7-of-9 games to go with the volume. The things that have limited Pittman’s ceiling is that he has not scored a touchdown since Week 1 and still carries a depth of target of just 6.5 yards downfield, which is 105th among all wide receivers.

Jakobi Meyers ($6,500/$5,500) collected a gaudy 37.5% of the team targets when these teams played in Week 8, catching 9-of-12 targets for 60 yards and a score. The Jets are allowing a league-low catch rate (52.1%) and 6.9 yards per target (fourth) to boundary wide receivers, but 48.4% of the wide receiver receptions against the Jets have come from the slot, the second-highest rate in the league.

In that same game, Garrett Wilson ($6,200/$4,900) is priced down, especially on DraftKings. He comes out of the bye coming off games of 6-115-0 and 8-92-0 against this New England defense and Buffalo, two of the tougher draws in the league. Wilson has been targeted on 24.9% of his routes as a rookie, which ranks 13th among all wide receivers in the league with 100 or more pass routes this season. 

FanDuel is lower than the field on DeVonta Smith ($6,400) who has a good matchup and the potential to see more targets with the injury to Dallas Goedert. Indianapolis plays zone 74.7% of the time (sixth highest) while playing Cover-3 on 50.4% of snaps (second highest). Smith leads the Eagles with a 25.0% target share against zone coverage while that bumps up to a 26.3% target share against Cover-3 looks.

Darnell Mooney ($6,000/$5,400) is a stacking partner for those paying up for Justin Fields. The Falcons are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season and 1.90 points per target (28th) to the position. Even if A.J. Terrell should return, the impact on Mooney would be reduced as he is playing 50% of his snaps in the slot where Atlanta is allowing 8.9 yards per target to opposing wideouts (23rd).

WR3

I believe we would have seen Kadarius Toney ($5,800/$5,400) be popular if he were on the main slate, but there another handful of names in this tier to look at taking cuts on for saving salary. 

Adam Thielen ($6,000/$5,500) is seemingly here every week as a cheap source of targets. He now has at least seven targets in each of the past eight games. That said, Thielen has seen 17.9% and 14.0% of the team targets the past two weeks since Hockenson was added. He was seeing 20.8% of the team targets prior. 

DraftKings is much lower on Darius Slayton ($5,000). Since Week 5, Slayton is sixth among all wide receivers with 100 or more routes in yards per route run (2.63) and ninth in air yard share (37.1%). He is 23rd in target rate per route run (21.7%) over that span. The Lions are allowing 9.6 yards per target (30th) and 13.9 yards per catch (28th) to opposing wideouts.  

FanDuel is lower on Drake London ($5,700) if you need to go with a low-priced stacking partner for Marcus Mariota. London has not had more than 40 yards in a game over his past seven games played so he takes a step of faith and is definitely elevated due to this week’s field. The peripheral metrics still remain positive here if we can draw team passing volume. London has a 27.7% team target share (10th among wideouts) and has been targeted on 26.1% of his routes (11th). The Bears are allowing 14.6 points per game (19th) to opposing WR1 targets and 9.3 yards per target (27th) to opposing boundary wide receivers, where London plays 88% of his snaps.

Donovan Peoples-Jones ($5,900/$4,600) was a salary saver last week and was solid again. Catching 5-of-9 targets for 99 yards Sunday, Peoples-Jones has now been a WR3 or better in four straight games and a WR4 or better in six consecutive weeks. As you can probably guess, Peoples-Jones benefits from the home/road variance of Amari Cooper. In road games, Peoples-Jones has a team-high 28.5% target share as opposed to a 13.2% target share at home. 

Parris Campbell ($5,800/$4,300) now has had games of 7-57-1 (11 targets), 10-70-1 (12 targets), and 7-76-1 (nine targets) in his past three games played with Matt Ryan. He has 19.6%, 29.3%, and 33.3% of the team targets in those games. 45.2% of the receptions by wideouts against the Eagles have come from the slot, the fifth-highest rate.

Tight End

Dalton Schultz ($5,900/$4,300) has been targeted on 27.8% of his routes while posting 2.28 yards per route run with Dak Prescott under center. Those would be top-two rates in each category over the full season. Minnesota is allowing a 72.7% catch rate (25th), 8.2 yards per target (25th), and a 7.3% touchdown rate (23rd) to opposing tight ends. 

Pat Freiermuth ($5,400/$4,200) continues to see a lot of work, but it has not come together fully for fantasy yet to match his opportunity. His 26.9% target share was third among all tight ends in Week 10. On the season, Freirmuth now is seventh among tight ends in yards per route run (1.71), and fifth in target rate per route run (23.3%). He has at least seven targets in 6-of-8 games this season. He caught 5-of-10 targets for 75 yards when these teams played in Week 1 with Mitchell Trubisky under center.

Greg Dulcich ($5,500/$3,800) did not have a strong game out of the bye, but the usage was still high. He ran a route on 40-of-49 dropbacks and played a season-high 89% of the snaps. Denver has a ton of wide receiver injuries while the Raiders have allowed a 9.5% touchdown rate to opposing tight ends, 30th in the league.

DraftKings is low on Tyler Higbee ($4,000) which is the best site for him since he may never score a touchdown. Higbee has 57 targets already from Stafford, which is 16 more than any other player on the team outside of Kupp. If making a bet on any pass catcher for the Rams, Higbee has already been the most usable player on the roster playing alongside Kupp. 

Cole Kmet ($5,700/$4,100) now has five touchdowns over the past three weeks. He has six (5-41-2) and seven targets (4-74-2) the past two weeks to go along with those scores. Kmet has run into a string of great matchups and it doesn’t stop here. Atlanta is allowing 5.9 catches per game to opposing tight ends (30th) although they have allowed just one touchdown to the position. 

If you want to go outside of those guys all ranked inside of the top 10 in industry rankings, all of Hayden Hurts, Tyler Conklin, Dawson Knox, and Juwan Johnson are priced down below their rankings on both sites as well.

DST

The best value on both sites among the front-end defenses is the 49ers ($4,000/$3,000) but they are also not on the main slate.

On the main slate, we do not have a major standout defense this week at the front of ranks. Values are more spread out and site-specific. 

If salary is no issue, the Patriots look like a strong buy on DraftKings ($3,700). 

The Steelers ($3,800/$2,300) appear to be the top pay-down defense on both sites.

DraftKings is also lower than the field on the Jets ($2,800) and Saints ($3,000) if you want to pay up a little over the Steelers and move away from what could be the most popular defense.  

If playing on FanDuel, they are lower on the Broncos ($3,900) by a lot compared to everyone else. They are also much lower on the Falcons ($3,400) as the best potential punt target over there.