What NFL Combine Results Actually Mean for Fantasy Football Drafts

Every February, fantasy football managers gather around their televisions to watch college prospects sprint, jump, and lift weights, thinking about Dynasty rookie draft boards they won't use for at least a couple of months.

It is easy to get swept up in the Combine hype cycle.

A receiver runs a 4.28, and suddenly he's the consensus first overall pick in rookie drafts.

An expected first-round running back clocks a 4.58, and managers start questioning everything they thought they knew.

But how much of that reaction is justified?

Which Combine measurables genuinely predict fantasy success, and which ones are statistical noise dressed up in spandex?

This guide breaks it down position by position so you can use the Combine to build a smarter rookie board instead of just reacting to the loudest number of the day.

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Do NFL Combine Results Actually Predict Fantasy Success?

The short answer: some do, some don't, and it depends almost entirely on the position.

Sports analysts and fantasy researchers have studied the relationship between Combine measurables and NFL production for decades, and the findings are more nuanced than the annual hype suggests.

For some positions (particularly wide receiver and tight end), certain athletic metrics have demonstrated meaningful correlations with NFL production.

For other positions, like running back, raw speed matters far less than you'd expect, and agility scores and contact balance are better predictors than the famous 40-yard dash.

At quarterback, Combine performance is almost entirely irrelevant to professional success.

Some of the greatest fantasy QBs of all time were mediocre athletes by Combine standards.

Others were freakish specimens who flamed out.

The position is so cognitively and mechanically complex that a 40-yard dash time tells you essentially nothing.

The most useful single-number summary of a player's Combine performance for fantasy purposes is the Relative Athletic Score (RAS), developed by analyst Kent Lee Platte.

Rather than evaluating raw numbers, RAS converts each measurable into a percentile relative to every player at that position in Combine history, then produces a composite score from 0 to 10.

A score above 9.0 is elite athleticism. Below 5.0 is a concern.

It's not perfect, but it is a significantly better tool than cherry-picking individual measurables.

Why Context Matters More Than Raw Numbers

Even when a measurable is meaningful for a position, it only tells part of the story.

A receiver who runs a 4.38 40-yard dash is only valuable in fantasy if he can get on the field, run routes cleanly, and land on a team that throws the ball.

Athletic profile and opportunity are both required, and the Combine only tells you about one of them.

The best way to use Combine data is as a filter.

Exceptional athleticism for a skill position player earns extra benefit of the doubt.

Poor athleticism for a position where it matters should raise your bar for other evidence.

But it shouldn't override everything else you know about a prospect.

The Measurables That Matter for Fantasy (By Position)

Quarterbacks: Does Combine Performance Predict Fantasy Success?

For fantasy purposes, quarterback athleticism matters in one narrow but increasingly important way: rushing upside.

In the modern NFL, mobile quarterbacks who can contribute as runners are significantly more valuable in fantasy than pocket passers with comparable passing production.

A quarterback's 40 time and short shuttle are worth tracking specifically through the lens of whether he projects as a legitimate dual-threat at the next level.

Beyond that, passing-specific Combine work — arm strength demonstrations, throwing sessions — is meaningful for scouts evaluating NFL readiness, but it's difficult to quantify and rarely correlates cleanly with fantasy output.

Agility drills and raw speed matter more than they used to, but still far less than processing speed, accuracy under pressure, and supporting cast.

• What to watch for QBs: 40 time (rushing upside indicator), short shuttle (mobility and evasiveness)
• What to ignore for QBs: Bench press, broad jump, vertical jump

Running Backs: Speed Scores, Agility, & What They Mean

Running back is the position where the Combine's limitations are most apparent.

The 40-yard dash is heavily overweighted by the media and many fantasy managers, but research consistently shows that breakaway speed alone is a poor predictor of RB fantasy success.

The metrics that matter more:

• Burst Score (broad jump plus vertical jump): measures explosive first-step quickness, which is more predictive than pure straight-line speed for running backs who operate in traffic.
• 10-Yard Split: The first 10 yards of the 40-yard dash, which also correlates to first-step quickness
• Agility Score (short shuttle plus three-cone drill): measures change of direction ability and acceleration, which correlates much more strongly with yards after contact and elusiveness than raw speed.
• Weight-adjusted speed: A 215-pound back running a 4.48 is producing a very different result than a 185-pound back running the same time. Weight-adjusted speed metrics account for this and are significantly more predictive.

All of these metrics can be found at PlayerProfiler.

A running back with elite agility scores and average straight-line speed is often a better real-life and fantasy prospect than one who runs a blazing 40 but struggles through the agility drills.

• What to watch for RBs: three-cone drill, short shuttle, vertical jump, weight-adjusted 40 time, 10-yard split
• What to ignore for RBs: Raw 40 time in isolation

Wide Receivers: Does Fantasy Reward Separation Ability vs. Pure Speed?

Wide receiver is the position where Combine data is most predictive of fantasy success, but it is not as simple as looking at the 40 time.

Pure speed matters for receivers, but it is not the end-all, be-all.

What separates good fantasy receivers from great ones is the ability to create separation consistently.

The agility drills, particularly the three-cone drill, are your best Combine proxy for route-running fluidity at the receiver position.

Research has shown that the three-cone correlates strongly with separation rate and, by extension, target volume and production.

The 40-yard dash still matters for wide receivers, but primarily as a threshold question: Can this player win on vertical routes at the NFL level?

Sub-4.50 is the general cutoff where straight-line speed stops being a limiting factor.

Below that threshold, the agility numbers become the differentiating factor.

• What to watch for WRs: three-cone drill, short shuttle, 40 time (as a threshold check), vertical jump
• What to ignore for WRs: Bench press

Tight Ends: Why Athletic Profile Is Everything at Tight End

Tight end is the position where Combine athleticism is most determinative of fantasy upside.

Many college tight ends are drafted in the later rounds to be primarily blockers, and Combine testing is one of the clearest signals of which prospects have the athletic ceiling to become real weapons in the passing game.

The key metrics for tight ends are a combination of size-adjusted speed and agility.

A tight end who weighs 250 pounds and runs a 4.60 is a very different fantasy prospect than one who weighs 250 and runs a 4.42.

Similarly, tight ends who test well in the three-cone and short shuttle have repeatedly outperformed their draft position as fantasy producers.

The vertical jump is uniquely important for tight ends because it's a proxy for leaping ability and catching radius, two things that directly determine red zone value.

• What to watch for TEs: 40 time (size-adjusted), three-cone, vertical jump, overall athleticism relative to size
• What to ignore for TEs: Bench press is meaningful for identifying blocking-only prospects, but high bench press numbers with poor speed/agility profile is often a signal of a non-fantasy tight end.

The Measurables That Don't Matter as Much as You Think

Why the 40 Time Is Overrated for Some Positions

The 40-yard dash is the most-covered, most-bet, most-talked-about event at the Combine.

It is also the most overinterpreted metric in the building.

For running backs, as noted above, the raw 40 time strips out the weight context that makes the number meaningful.

For quarterbacks, a fast 40 tells you a player can run, but it doesn't tell you whether he will run in his actual offense, or whether he can sustain it over a full NFL season with the injury risk that entails.

Bench Press and Fantasy Production: No Real Correlation

The bench press is a crowd-pleasing event at the Combine.

It produces big numbers, obvious exertion, and clear winners.

It is also nearly meaningless for fantasy football.

For skill position players — the players you actually roster in fantasy — there is no meaningful relationship between bench press reps and NFL production.

The bench press is a useful indicator of an offensive lineman's ability to engage blockers, but for your fantasy purposes, it is just entertainment.

When to Ignore a Bad Combine Performance

Not all bad Combine performances mean the same thing, and knowing when to hold your evaluation is just as important as knowing when to update it.

A wide receiver who runs a slow 40 and also tests poorly in agility drills has a real athleticism problem.

A tight end who is slow, can't jump, and tests poorly in every measurable probably projects as a blocker.

But a skill position player who runs a slightly disappointing 40 and has a history of producing at an elite level against top competition in college?

That's a much smaller concern.

College production, especially against strong defenses, has historically been one of the strongest predictors of NFL fantasy success, and one slow 40 shouldn't override a multi-year body of college work.

The safest rule: use a bad Combine to raise questions and look harder, not to eliminate a prospect from your board.

How to Apply Combine Results to Your Fantasy Draft

Using RAS (Relative Athletic Score) as a Quick Filter

Relative Athletic Score is available for free at ras.football.

It is the fastest and most efficient way to get a position-adjusted, percentile-calibrated read on a prospect's overall athleticism.

Use it as a first-pass filter:

• RAS above 9.0: This is an elite athlete for his position. Athletic ceiling is not a concern.
• RAS 7.0–9.0: Good athlete. Not a differentiator, but not a limiting factor.
• RAS 5.0–7.0: Average. Look more carefully at whether the position requires elite athleticism.
• RAS below 5.0: Below average. This isn't disqualifying, but it raises the bar for everything else in his profile.

Running RAS against your own scouting notes is a reliable way to surface prospects whose athletic profile either exceeds or undercuts their production-based ranking.

Combining Athletic Profile With Landing Spot for Maximum Accuracy

Combine athleticism and landing spot are the two most important inputs to rookie fantasy value, and neither one alone is sufficient.

An elite athletic prospect who lands in a crowded depth chart with a run-first offense is a dynasty stash.

A player with average athleticism who lands as the clear target hog for a high-volume passing offense has immediate fantasy value even if his long-term ceiling is lower.

After the Combine, update your board with the athletic profile.

After the Draft, update it again with the landing spot.

The prospects who score well on both dimensions are your priority targets.

To that end, make sure to check out Rich Hribar's post-Combine rookie profiles (linked below), but make sure to come back for his official Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings following the NFL Draft in April.

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