The Disappearance of the Sack Artist, Pt 1

To open this series, I discussed optimal roster design.  Naturally, the first two articles tackled the quarterback position, the highest paid and most critical single position translating to wins.  Its only appropriate, therefore, to now discuss the next highest paid position, the pass rusher. Unlike the prior two quarterback articles, where I discussed efficient vs inefficient quarterback drafting and its implications and the ramifications of re-signing a franchise quarterback at market rate, this article is far more counter-intuitive.  In fact, many out there still probably believe that obtaining a Julius Peppers or Mario Williams is the not-so-secret to defensive success.  They believe that snapping up that Lawrence Taylor/Bruce Smith ultra-premium sack artist will unlock the door to a dominant defense and team success.  But I don’t agree.

NFL pass rushers are in high demand.  And as a result, they are highly compensated.  How well are they compensated and regarded in the NFL?  The table below outlines the top 5 average 2014 salaries by position.  As you can see, the top 5 pass rusher salaries average the 2nd most in the league.  Ahead of WRs, CBs, LT, DTs and everyone other than quarterbacks:

In 2014, those top 5 salaried pass rushers include:

  • Mario Williams
  • Julius Peppers
  • Clay Matthews
  • Charles Johnson
  • Trent Cole

With Chris Long, Tamba Hali, DeMarcus Ware and Calais Campbell just outside those top 5 salary leaders.

It doesn’t take a genius to know that most of those players really didn’t earn their salary this year.  First, none of them played for teams who won a single playoff game.  But we know that’s a team accomplishment.  So here are some of their 2013 regular season stats:

  • Mario Williams – 16 games, 13 sacks on 561 opponent pass attempts
  • Julius Peppers – 16 games, 7.5 sacks on 507 opponent pass attempts
  • Clay Matthews – 11 games, 7.5 sacks on 377 opponent pass attempts
  • Charles Johnson – 14 games, 11 sacks on 500 opponent pass attempts
  • Trent Cole – 16 games, 8 sacks on 670 opponent pass attempts

Now naturally it goes without saying you can’t “rate” a player based on one statistic, like sacks.  Even if it’s one of their primary purposes in life and the reason they are making over $10M per year.  There are other contributions these players make other than sacks, none less notable than occupying offensive linemen so their fellow defenders have better opportunities to generate sacks.

Understanding that fact, I decided to research sacks in the NFL.  Why?  Because how often in today’s NFL do you hear about dominant pass rushers?  You know, the names that rolled off your tongue years ago when watching football:

Lawrence Taylor… Reggie White… Derrick Thomas… Mark Gastineau… Chris Doleman… Bruce Smith… Dexter Manley

In the modern era of the NFL, since the new hit rules were enacted in 2010, this is a passing league.  And where there are passes, there are opportunities for sack artists.  We should be in a sack heavy era of football.  But we’re not.  In fact, we’re in an era which could be described as the “Disappearance of the Sack Artist”.

And in today’s NFL, measuring CUMULATIVE statistics is utterly foolish.  Who cares how many total sacks a player has if their opponent is throwing 20% MORE passes and thus has 20% more chances to record sacks.  This notion doesn’t just apply to sacks.  Its why I value efficiency metrics and rankings which factor strength of schedule and opportunities over cumulative statistics.  Its why I’ve invented my own metrics to better understand the game.  Because I find many of the statistics that are still discussed by key figures within the NFL and within the media are ridiculous.  As an example:  ranking defenses by total yards allowed or total points allowed, without factoring in who these teams faced.

For that reason, I don’t care that there were 1,297 sacks recorded in the 2013 NFL regular season, the most in a season in NFL history.  That is because there were 18,142 passes thrown this year, the most in a season in NFL history.

The true measure of sack ability is sack percentage.  How many sacks did a player have vs the number of passes which were thrown against his team?   Because when Chris Doleman recorded 21 sacks vs 488 pass attempts in 1989 or Bruce Smith recorded 19 sacks vs 455 pass attempts in 1990, their 4.3% and 4.2% sack percentage is a much more important measuring stick for comparison purposes than their total sacks.

Consider that Mario Williams, whose 13 sacks this year was 4th best in the NFL this season and his 2nd best season in his career.  But to record those 13 sacks, he needed his opponents to throw 561 pass attempts against him.  Compare that to Bruce Smith, who recorded 19 sacks on just 455 pass attempts in 1990.  At Mario’s 2.3% sack rate, for him to total 19 sacks in this season, he would have needed to face 820 pass attempts -> over 51 per game!

Methodology

I looked at the top 500 players in NFL history from a total sacks/season perspective.  The list cuts off at 10.5 sacks, and at the top is the 22.5 recorded by Michael Strahan in 2001.

I then looked at the sack rate that these top 500 sack artists earned.  Part two of this series will dig into those numbers more, but I’ll conclude this introductory article by discussing the yearly averages.

Historical Results

The top 500 total sack-seasons occurred from 1982 thru 2013.  As I mentioned earlier, 2013 saw the most total sacks of any year in NFL history, but that was only because it also had the most pass attempts.  But what about the true measure: sack rate?

Among the best sack artists in the NFL, 2013 saw the 4th worse sack rate (sacks/attempt) of the 32 year sample.    And since the new pass friendly rules of 2010 to ring in the modern “pass happy” era of the NFL, we’ve seen 3 of the worst 8 sack rate years on record from these sack leaders.

As is evident, you can see the trends in the average sack rates declining sharply over the years, and but for two very poor years (94/95) we’d see an even more steady decline.  2010 was the 3rd worst year in the last 32, and 2013 was the 4th worst.

Even if we ignore just the sack leaders, and look at all QB sacks in general from all defensive players (regardless if they had 1 or 15 sacks that year), we see the same type of performance drop off over the years from the defensive pass rushers:

As we can see,the trend line for the overall sack rate has progressed downward in a similar fashion to the top 500 pass rushers, despite the fact that the last few years (with the exception of 2012) the rate has increased.  This indicates that we’re seeing a majority of NFL sacks based on defensive scheme and alignment rather than seeing the top sack artists shine.  Which is even more reason to shy away from paying big money for a sack artist in today’s NFL.  (In future articles, we will look at production for the teammates of the sack artists, but the numbers show that having one of the top paid guys on your roster does not mean, even if his sack numbers are low, his teammates will see success.)

2013 Results

So how did our top 5 highest paid pass rushers perform in sack rate in 2013?

  • Mario Williams – 13 sacks on 561 opponent pass attempts = 2.3% sack rate
  • Julius Peppers – 7.5 sacks on 507 opponent pass attempts = 1.5% sack rate
  • Clay Matthews – 7.5 sacks on 377 opponent pass attempts = 2.0% sack rate
  • Charles Johnson – 11 sacks on 500 opponent pass attempts = 2.2% sack rate
  • Trent Cole – 8 sacks on 670 opponent pass attempts = 1.2% sack rate

Looking at the top 500 pass rushers in NFL history:

  • Mario Williams 2.3% ranked 279th
  • Charles Johnson’s 2.2% ranked 340th
  • Clay Matthews 2.0% ranked 438th
  • Both Julius Peppers and Trent Cole’s sack rate %s were so low they didn’t even place in the top 500 – no top 500 player ever had a season with a sack rate lower than 1.7%. Peppers was 1.5%, Cole was 1.2%.

Conclusion

In future installments of this discussion, I’ll share even more detailed graphics breaking down the top 500 sack artists in NFL history, and show why we are seeing the sack artist slowly disappearing from today’s NFL.   With the NFL draft now approaching I will further the discussion of overpaying for these players.  And I’ll touch on an interesting correlation involving team success and dominant pass rushers, and how there is actually an inverse relationship between the two:  in the prime era of sack artists, their dominance led to team wins, but now their presence on teams has resulted in poorer W-L records.

While this discussion is certainly NOT going to be popular in NFL circles, its one worth having.  I realize due to both their salary as well as general NFL team building blueprints, having a single dominant pass rusher is thought to be paramount to any good team.  But time and time again, we see the team who brings home the hardware comprised of good overall defensive lines, absent a high paid, top recruited sack artist.  It may take the full installment of these articles to completely address my view on the subject, but hopefully this will lead both to education and solid discussion on the topic and why many teams, in my view, make big mistakes overpaying for sack artists, believing they need them on their team to succeed in the NFL.  While at one point in time that may have been a more accurate statement, current numbers are not supporting that logic.

Sharp Football Analysis 2013 Football Year in Review

The 2013 Season was my 8th season publicly providing selections.  Having profited each of the prior 7 seasons, I was eager to make 2013 my 8th straight.  And I did just that.

This year, all 4 “seasons” were profitable:  NFL Regular Season, NFL Postseason, College Football Regular Season and College Football Bowls, in addition to my NFL Regular Season Wins.  Over the course of every single play, my clients and I accumulated a profit of roughly +41 units, as detailed below:

NFL Regular Season Wins: 6-2 (75%), +6 Units

Detailed results can be found HERE.  Each year I put out one of my Regular Season Wins for free prior to the start of the NFL season.  This year, that play was the Chicago Bears Under 8.5 Wins at +130, which won, which you can read by clicking on this link.

In 2012, the only other year I released Regular Season Wins, I likewise went 6-2, so I am now 12-4 (75%) in the 2 years of producing these pre-season plays with writeups, and obviously I strongly encourage you to follow these in 2014.

NFL Regular Season:  71-55 (56%), +17.5 Units

The 2013 NFL season played out very similarly to seasons in the past.   One thing I try to always instill in my clients is bankroll management by setting the example myself.  In the NFL this year, my average bet size was exactly 1.02 units/wager.  The largest play I released during the regular season was 2.0 units, and I only made 6 of these plays (and went 4-2).  I never chase and never press.  I varied my bets between 0.5 and 2 units, with the most common wager by far being 1.0 units.

As a result, I’m able to handle the inevitable “runs” that come for any bettor during the season.  The 2013 NFL Regular season started off hot, as I was actually 11-2 thru the first two weeks of the season.  The first month of the year was very strong, which was followed by a slow spell the next 1.5 months.

However, for whatever reason, I have historically crushed things from week 12 onward, and this year was no different.  I went 34-16 (68%) to close the NFL regular season very hot.   From 2006 thru 2012, I was 391-250 (61%) from week 12 onward, and was able to even outperform those strong results in the NFL to close out this regular season.

Highlighting results for the NFL this year were my NFL Totals.  In 2013, I decided to provide write-ups with all of my totals, which was something in the past I only did for my personal play releases.  I went 59.4% on my NFL totals in 2013.  Much like the pattern for the entire season, they started off very strong, slowed down in a mid-season lull, and finished the season on a 16-8 (67%) run from week 12 onward.

NFL Playoffs:  16-11 (59%), +2.2 Units

This year’s NFL playoffs were not very entertaining, but they were profitable.  Most of these games, particularly on the AFC side and the Super Bowl, were not close.   In fact, after the wild card round (which saw 3 games decided by 3 or fewer points), the 7 remaining games were decided by at least 6 points, and the winner won by an average of over 14 ppg.  However, while we were bored with the final 3 rounds of the postseason, my releases hit 14-7 (67%) and we enjoyed solid profit.  The season was capped off by another lopsided but profitable Super Bowl, one in which I went 1-1 on my larger plays but 4-2 overall on the strength of several strong prop bets.  My in-depth Super Bowl writeup was right on point yet again, predicting that pundits were unfairly scrutinizing Russell Wilson’s play to close the season.  I believed that Lynch would struggle to run against the Broncos, and the burden would fall to Wilson for Seattle, but that he would rise to the occasion and perform well, much like he did all season long when his team needed him.  As it turned out, due to defense and special teams, the Seahawks didn’t even need Wilson to perform well, but that didn’t stop him from posting a 123 passer rating with 72% completions, 2 TDs and 0 Ints, while Lynch was held to just 2.6 ypa and a mere 39 total yards.

The release of my Super Bowl plays and writeup was also very cool, because while I’ve moved lines with my totals releases often both this season and over the past few years, moving a Super Bowl total was pretty spectacular.  The line was 50/50 split between 47 and 47.5 prior to my release, and after my release, the line eventually topped out as high as 49.5.  I projected 50 points in the game, and even though sharper money came in on Saturday and game day Sunday to bet the game back to the under (making plenty of 47/47.5 available at kickoff), the game landed 51 (almost exactly my projection), and the “sharp under money” lost while my lean and plays to the over paid off.

The NFL playoffs also saw the first (and only) EDSR play shared with clients, which was New England over Indianapolis in the Divisional round.  Playing the Patriots both first half and full game, both plays won soundly and I’m really looking forward to sharing more of these predictions in 2014, but more on that later.

College Football Regular Season:  127-110 (54%), +12 Units

Similar to the NFL regular season, the same pattern emerged in college football.  The season started with a bang, going 41-26 (61%) the first 4 weeks of releases.  Results then slowed down, capped by the single worst CFB totals weekend I’ve put on record in week 8 of the college season, which really ate into the YTD profit.  But there was no concern or panic after the poor week, and to close the season I went 64-48 (57%) and we finished the regular season up 12 units.

Again, as I indicated earlier, for me, money management is critical and so you will NEVER see me playing 5+ unit plays like many other services do.  In fact, my largest CFB play was 2 units (it pushed) and my smallest was 0.5 units.  My average play in CFB this year was actually only 0.84 units.

In an interesting change from prior years, instead of first half wagers being more profitable on my college totals, the full game wagers were.  This phenomenon unfortunately cut into our profits.  Historically, first half plays were stronger, and as a result, they were typically played at 1.0 unit, which full game plays were 0.75 units.  But in 2013, the 1.0 unit plays went 54-58 during the regular season while the 0.75 unit plays went 54-28.  As is obvious, had we played both equally throughout the season, we would have been further ahead.  Also of note, the weather/injury plays did not work out like they did in years past, and these went just 4-8 in 2013.

As a result, for 2014, I certainly plan to put added study into the releases.  Not that the 54% and the +12 units was bad, but it could have been better.  In fact, my smallest releases in the college football regular season (of 0.5 units) went 15-22.  This shows that I rightfully lowered the play size on these plays which I didn’t feel as strong about (which is a good thing) but also shows that I can be even more selective and instead of simply lowering the play size, I can eliminate the play altogether.  Between focusing on that, refining weather plays and adjusting unit sizes on first half vs full game, I’m positive 2014 results will be even stronger.  Believe me, any time the bottom line is positive (like the +12 units was in 2013’s regular season), I’m satisfied, but I’m also a perfectionist and I want to ensure my hard work and effort translates into maximum gain on our bottom line.

Other highlights:

  • 78-55 (58%) on full game plays over the entire regular season, inc 45-22 (67%) since Halloween
  • 100% on my strongest “Heavyweight” plays in 2013

Like the NFL, my releases in college football routinely beat the closing number.  But my releases don’t just happen to beat the closing number.  First, they move the line itself when released, and ultimately, they beat the closing number.

  • From the beginning of November onward, my releases went 52-3 (95%) against Pinnacle’s closing number, giving my clients the best of it 95% vs the sharpest number going (Pinnacle).
  • On average, my releases beat Pinnacle’s close by almost 2 points/game, an almost absurd value to average.

Below is a perfect summary of my college season recap and a look at the closing line value I achieved on a weekly basis:

2013 College Football Review: Results + Closing Line Value

College Football Bowls:  24-18 (57%), +3.5 Units

The bowl season was another example of why my bankroll management paid off on our bottom line.  The bowl  season started off extremely abnormally.   I don’t think I’ve seen such such a streak of favorite and under games in my life like we saw game after game after game.  The favorites got up and went easy late, while the dogs had no bite throughout the entire game, even when trailing big late, playing conservatively and running out the clock.  Some of the losses were of the brutally frustrating variety.  Three games stand out I won’t soon forget:

  • Washington/BYU, where we won our 1st half bet (over 30.5, hit 37) but Washington lost their staring QB & RB at halftime, and despite being down 28-16 early in the 3rd quarter, BYU didn’t put up a single 2nd half point and Washington only scored 1 FG the rest of the game.
  • Texas Tech/Arizona State, where the first half won once again, seeing 40 pts scored, and there were 54 on the board with 28 minutes left in the game (we had over 71.5).  Needing just 0.64 points/minute to end the game was just 38% of the game’s production-to-date of 1.69 points/minute, but the teams only managed two FGs in the last 28 minutes.
  • UCLA/Virginia Tech, where a 21 point halftime score was nicely below the 1st half total, and thru 3 quarters only 24 points were on the board in a defensive, 14-10 game in which we had under 47.  Remarkably and insanely, 30 points were scored in the 4th quarter, with UCLA never stopping and winning 42-12, to go over by a TD.

The point of detailing these 3 games is to illustrate that even in the midst of some ridiculously tough losses, its important to keep focused and keep firing on +EV plays in a responsible manner.  And I closed out the bowl season from New Year’s Eve onward on an absolutely blazing pace to make for a 57% bowl record and a +3.5 unit profit, despite the ridiculous losses along the way.

Lifetime Updated Records (8 Years, from 2006-2013)

  • NFL Overall:  928-644 (59%)
  • NFL Totals:  372-251(60%)
  • College Totals:  416-315 (57%)

Future Applications – EDSR

As many of you already know, prior to the 2012 Super Bowl, I created EDSR.  I shared at the time of that Super Bowl that it had strong success in the postseason.  But prior to the 2013 season, I went back and created an algorithm to apply in a model to predict ATS plays.  The backtested results, from 2010 when the new “hit rules” first were implemented thru the end of the 2012 season were 96-48 (67%).  While stunningly impressive, often backtested results prove “too good to be true”, so I was hesitant to share actual system plays in 2013.  However, I ran the system each week and the winning continued during this live testing process week by week.  In fact, the results were 42-20 headed into the postseason.

As such, I now had strong confidence in the system, and made it a point to share any EDSR system plays in the postseason.  Unfortunately, there was only one play which qualified: New England over Indianapolis.  It won easily, improving the system to 43-20 (68%) this year, making the live results slightly stronger than the “too good to be true” backtested results.  We made that one play count, by betting the Patriots first half and full game, winning 2 bets on the the one EDSR play.

I look forward to continuing to work with not only EDSR but a lot of advanced metrics in 2014 and beyond.  Their use and incorporation into my handicapping style has done nothing but strengthen my results and the confidence of my plays and I’m excited to spend another offseason investigating and analyzing new and more efficient means of studying the game of football.

Late Season Run?  Plot Twist!

As indicated in the regular season portions of the season recap above, I typically go on “late season runs”, starting right around Thanksgiving/Week 12 and pump out my best work of the year.  Lifetime heading into this year, I was 391-250 (61%), and I was very curious if I could continue that run this year.

Primarily because my wife and I were expecting our 2nd child, due late November.  As it turns out, the little guy wanted to watch Sunday NFL with his dad, and he was born Saturday afternoon.  As every father out there can imagine, spending several nights in a hospital and then weeks at home with 2 young children, one of which is a newborn, is challenging on multiple levels.

I took that challenge as a point of pride to see if, in the midst of all the new joy as well as despite the sleepless nights and extra “family time”, I could replicate my success.  Needless to say, it was very difficult, but from week 12 onward to the end of the regular season in each sport, I was able to go:

  • 34-16 (68%) in the NFL
  • 57-43 (57%) in College Football 
  • 91-59 (61%) combined

Which ended up equaling my average the prior 7 years.  Now that the football season is over, I can get back to enjoying my family and spending more time with them.  But I’ll always look back fondly knowing the joy of bringing new life into the world was coupled with the joy of hitting over 60% in 150 plays to close out the regular season.

Everyone has their day to day pressures and responsibilities, and many deal with things far less joyful and far more painful than the birth of a child (at least for the father, don’t tell my wife!).  Some of my clients have shared personal stories of disability, illness or family tragedy with me.  I always work my tail off for my clients because I deeply care about success, both mine and theirs.  And I hope that it shows in the level of work I produce.

While welcoming a baby between Thanksgiving and Christmas is certainly a great family time of year, my first born was conveniently born in May, smack dab in the middle of “offseason”, and that timing was far less stressful on someone like myself.  And so I look forward to my 2014 “late season” run taking place when I’m not measuring out contractions, changing a million dirty diapers, and (God willing) not spending nights in the hospital!

February thru July – Spring and Summer?

I take a path very few handicappers take.  Most guys, during the football season, are also trying to work in some baseball, basketball and hockey.  When the football season ends, they go into overdrive with their college and pro basketball and hockey plays.  Why do they stretch themselves thin and try to win at so many sports?

Because for most, its about their bottom line, not yours.  Their livelihood depends on receiving payment for sports picks year round.  And whether these plays win or lose, they still need to get them out there in exchange for your money.  And that’s just one example (of virtually everything) that makes me different from most services.

I don’t need or depend on revenue from my service.  My engineering degree enabled me to get licensed as a Professional Engineer and I have a full time job working in that field.  And I do quite well.  I simply choose to study, analyze and forecast football because I love doing it, and I’m successful doing it.  If I didn’t love it, why waste my time?  If I ever stopped being successful, I’d quit.  I’m NOT in it to dupe people into giving me their money for un-researched, poorly selected dart-on-the-wall, losing picks that get churned out without any analysis.  I AM in it to translate my passion for quantitative analysis, math and problem solving into my other passion which is watching the sport of football.

As a result, I focus every ounce of energy from July thru early February into my pursuit of perfection in football handicapping.  I don’t watch ANY OTHER SPORT during this time.  No baseball, no basketball, no hockey for me.  100% football.  And that focus has directly translated into the results you see above, year after year, 8 straight seasons in this “pursuit” and all of them have been winning, profitable seasons.  And after every single year, I analyze how the season went and set out a plan on how to improve things and continue to develop my research for an even more successful season in the fall.

So unlike the other services, you won’t find me selling my NBA, College Basketball, NHL or MLB plays this summer.  I don’t handicap those sports.  More importantly, I don’t want to waste your time and money trying to sell you plays that I know aren’t my strong suit.  Most handicappers don’t care about that.  They have their “strong sport”, yet they still sell you every single play, even from sports they know they can’t consistently beat, year in and year out.  Because, to them, handicapping and touting all sports is a paycheck.  To me, I only handicap football, and its a passion which has become a successful recreational pursuit.

That said, I wish you all the best of luck on ALL of your action the rest of the winter and into the spring and summer.  I’ll still be around, breaking down and discussing the NFL draft in May, Free Agency, OTAs and of course, Training Camps.  But what I WON’T be doing is selling anything.

I hope you enjoyed the 2013 football campaign as much as I did, and I hope my in-depth writeups and use of advanced analytics brought something into your world that you’ll keep with you moving forward.  Sports betting is always about results, both short and long term.  But its also about becoming a more savvy and astute bettor, and to become that, you must understand the game better and learn more than your fellow bettors.

Because sports betting is becoming less of a battle between the books and “us guys” on this side of the counter.  The longer I’ve been in the game, the more competition I have simply from other syndicate groups, who are trying to steal the numbers that I want.  Which of us can move the fastest at the right time to get the best number on the games we both like?  And similarly, your goal should be to learn more about both the sport you’re betting as well as how to successfully bet it, to put yourself in a better position vs your competition.  That way, you’re getting the best numbers and putting yourself into +EV situations time and time again.

I marvel at how often bettors believe its “us vs them”, with “them” being the bookmaker.  The fact is, the bookmaker is setting the total at 41.5.  But if your “buddy” lays down 2 large bets, 1 on under 41.5 (causing a 0.5 point move) and then again on under 41, and you’re now left with a 40.5 and miss the key number of 41, who really is your buddy then?  The bookmaker, who is simply setting a number for the world to bet into, or your “buddy” who stole all the value out of the total and now you’re left with a terrible number on the wrong side of 41.

The fact is, you need to be sharper than both the bookmaker as well as your “colleagues” who are competing for numbers to bet vs the books.  When I release a game and the line moves, its primarily moving because someone on “our” side of the counter (you and I) placed a bet, or its moved on air by the book as a reaction to other on-screen movement.  Regardless, its triggered by “us”.  And at that point, “our” competition is the other syndicates as well as other bettors out there trying to grab the value out of that number.

How often do I see a weekend slate of CFB Saturday and NFL Sunday games and say “wow, the bookmaker is so sharp, I really see absolutely NO value anywhere on these 60+ games” and pass?  That never happens.  I always can spot games I disagree with the bookmaker on.  But my #1 competition is always the other betting groups out there trying to pick off value on games before I release, which is why confidently knowing where the value lies, and accurately timing the market, is such a key part of what I do every day of the week.

So to outsmart the competition of your peers, you need to not only be sharper about the game (and spotting good situations/matchups etc) but you also need to know when to fire.  I like to think that I’m teaching you some about the game (through my writeups), and about market timing (by my release points & constant effort to beat the closing number), both of which will help you in your pursuit of profitability.  Of course, all of that is “part of package” that come with the plays themselves, which I release and which generated:

  • +41 units of profit this football season;  and which have now generated
  • +316 units in the 8 years I’ve been sharing them

I look forward to exchanging thoughts with you over twitter or via email this spring and summer, and I hope you have a SAFE, HEALTHY and PROFITABLE offseason.  And until next football season, all the best.

– Warren

Don’t forget, to receive all of my offseason correspondence, including draft insights and analysis, and any new advanced metrics I’m studying this summer, make sure you’re on the free mailing list.  Just enter your email address in the field below and hit subscribe: