The 2025 College Football season is right around the corner, which means it is time to start looking for the best win total bets for the upcoming season.
In this series, I will take a look at win total bets for a few appealing teams in each of the four major conferences.
| 2025 College Football Over/Under Best Bets |
|---|
| Big 12 Best Win Total Bets |
| ACC Best Win Total Bets |
| Big 10 Best Win Total Bets |
| SEC Best Win Total Bets |
Want NFL Futures Recommendations? Warren Sharp has you covered.
Warren Sharp's futures package has compiled an 85-48 (64%) record on non-longshot props over the last seven years.
A $100 bettor is up $7,018 following Warren's futures since this package was created.
Use promo code: SAVE50 to get $50 off the already discounted price.
Click here to learn more about the 2025 NFL Futures Package!
2025 College Win Total Best Bet: Florida Over 6.5 wins
The Gators might have the nation’s toughest schedule, enhanced by non-conference games against Florida State and Miami, which explains the surprisingly low number for their win total.
Despite having to run through a gauntlet, Florida has more than enough talent to make a serious run at a playoff berth.
Quarterback DJ Lagway enters his first full year as the starter with a stable of receivers supporting him.
The Gators have seven four or five star recruits at receiver, including two of the top eight recruits at the position from the 2025 class.
Florida also returns four starters from an offensive line that thrived in the run game a season ago.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Florida ranked 15th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact per rush attempt.
Florida also benefits from getting its two most challenging opponents (Texas and Georgia) at home and off a bye week.
Bet on the Gators pulling off an upset in one of those contests and getting to at least seven wins this season.
2025 College Win Total Best Bet: Tennessee Under 8.5 wins
When Josh Heupel first arrived at Tennessee, he quickly turned the program around with a high-powered offense.
However, once Huepel’s original offensive coordinator, Alex Golesh, became the head coach at USF, the Vols gradually became more conservative and less effective.
Although Heupel got the Vols back to the playoffs last year, the passing attack continued to backslide, and it was the defense 一 especially the pass rush 一 which carried the program.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Tennessee ranked 34th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate.
Unfortunately for the Vols, James Pearce Jr. is gone.
Pearce generated 50 pressures, more than double anyone else on the team.
Omarr Norman-Lott is also in the NFL.
The two combined to generate 33% of the team’s pressures.
Tennessee then made the surprising decision to replace those two from within, not making a single transfer portal addition to the front seven.
We should also assume Tennessee’s offense takes another step backwards.
Although Nico Iamaleava (now at UCLA) struggled in his first year as the starter, his elite talent was apparent and occasionally produced big plays.
Appalachian State transfer Joey Aguilar might be a better game manager, but he is likely a substantial step down in the big-play department.
The schedule also gets more challenging this year.
The Vols have three gimmes (East Tennessee, UAB, New Mexico State).
They will also expect to beat Mississippi State and Kentucky, but both of those games are on the road.
Even if the Vols go 5-0 in those contests, hitting the over on this bet would require a winning record in these games, which will not be an easy task:
- vs. Syracuse (neutral site)
- Georgia
- Arkansas
- at Alabama
- Oklahoma
- at Florida
- Vanderbilt
2025 College Win Total Best Bet: Kentucky Under 4.5 wins
Kentucky’s offense was hit hard by the portal, losing top receivers Dane Key (to Nebraska) and Barion Brown (to LSU).
Texas A&M castoff Zach Calzada, who spent the past two years at Incarnate Word, takes over at quarterback, but it doesn’t look like he has much support.
Even with Key and Brown, Kentucky ranked 82nd in explosive play rate.
So Calzada will need to revive the offense without its top weapons and three starters from last year’s offensive line.
There’s also the potential issue of low morale in the program.
After the 2023 season, head coach Mark Stoops accepted the job at Texas A&M, but the hire was vetoed by school regents.
Stoops was forced back to Kentucky, where fans were angry he tried to leave and even more frustrated when the Wildcats went 4-8, their worst season since Stoops’ debut in 2013.
Kentucky has three likely wins on the schedule:
- Week 1 – Toledo (although this isn’t a guarantee)
- Week 3 – Eastern Michigan
- Week 12 – Tennessee Tech
Kentucky’s best shot at a fourth win would be at Vanderbilt, but the Wildcats will likely be underdogs in that matchup.
Even if Kentucky runs the table in those four games, it’s hard to see a fifth win here:
- Week 2 – Ole Miss
- Week 5 – at South Carolina
- Week 6 – at Georgia
- Week 8 – Texas
- Week 9 – Tennessee
- Week 10 – at Auburn
- Week 11 – Florida
- Week 14 – Louisville
Barring a significant injury to an opposing player, Kentucky will be heavy underdogs in each contest.
Given the portal losses, the schedule, and the Stoops drama, this could be a tumultuous year in Lexington.
