The 2025 College Football season is right around the corner, which means it is time to start looking for the best season-long bets for the upcoming season.
I've already run through my favorite win total bets for each major conference.
Now it's time to look at some playoff bets.
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2025 College Football Playoff Best Bet: Michigan to Miss the Playoff (-275)
Michigan has a relatively easy schedule 一 only two opponents (Ohio State, Oklahoma) are ranked in the preseason AP Top 25.
However, it would likely require a historic performance from true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood to revive the Wolverines' offense.
Michigan ranked 113th in scoring offense a season ago and failed to add any notable offensive talent from the portal to support Underwood.
Underwood was the top-ranked recruit in the country a season ago, and it's certainly reasonable to expect him to elevate the performance of Michigan’s offense in the long run.
However, we’ve never seen a true freshman carry their offense the way Underwood would need to with this supporting cast.
Michigan fans are hoping Underwood is the next Trevor Lawrence, who had arguably the greatest true freshman season in college football history.
However, Lawrence had Travis Etienne, Tee Higgins, Hunter Renfrow, and Justyn Ross to help him out.
Michigan doesn’t have an offensive weapon who would sniff the field for that 2018 Clemson team.
The most hyped quarterback to start for his team in Week 1 last year was Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola.
The Cornhuskers went 7-6 and ranked 103rd in scoring offense with similar skill position talent to Michigan’s squad in 2025.
Michigan should probably expect a Raiola-like performance out of Underwood: promising, but inconsistent. And that won’t be enough to make the playoffs.
2025 College Football Playoff Best Bet: Texas Tech to Make Playoff (+400)
The Red Raiders should be the favorite to win the Big 12 and earn an automatic playoff berth.
Texas Tech cleaned up in the transfer portal, adding 13 four-star transfers based on 247 Sports transfer portal rankings.
The rest of the Big 12 added 17 four stars combined, with no other team adding more than four.
Head coach Joey McGuire is still relatively unproven, so it’s not a guarantee the transfers add up to the sum of their parts, but the talent is there for Texas Tech to emerge as the powerhouse of the Big 12 this season.
It’s also reasonable to bet the Red Raiders to win the Big 12 (+550), though betting on them to make the playoffs provides some margin for error in the event they get in as the Big 12’s second team.
2025 College Football Playoff Best Bet: Tennessee to Miss Playoff (-375)
Tennessee made the playoffs last year on the strength of its defense, but its final resume was relatively ordinary.
The Vols had three top-25 wins based on ranking at the time of the game, but two of those teams (NC State, Oklahoma) finished the year with losing records.
Tennessee’s noncompetitive showing at Ohio State in the playoff was probably more indicative of the Vols’ talent than their 10-2 regular season record.
The Vols have four ranked opponents on their schedule plus a neutral site season opener against Syracuse, which likely won’t be an easy win.
For Tennessee to get back to a 10-win season and the playoffs, it will need more from its offense 一 that’s unlikely with Joey Aguilar taking over for Nico Iamaleava.
Aguilar posted mediocre numbers for a 5-7 Appalachian State squad last year and was particularly ineffective against pressure.
Against Sun Belt competition, Aguilar completed a dreadful 29.5% of his passes against pressure, per Sports Info Solutions.
Now he has to try to improve upon that in the SEC.
2025 College Football Playoff Best Bet: Penn State to Make Playoff (-300)
Penn State, fresh off an appearance in the semifinals, enters the year ranked second in the preseason AP Poll and received just two fewer first-place votes than Texas.
With nearly everyone returning from last year’s squad, most notably quarterback Drew Allar, the Nittany Lions should be considered a near lock for the postseason.
So why do the odds only indicate a 75% chance of returning to the playoffs?
Perhaps it's James Franklin’s pitiful track record against top-tier opponents.
Since joining Penn State in 2014, Franklin is 1-22 in the regular season against teams that ended the year in the AP top 10 一 and that lone victory was nine years ago against Ohio State.
That’s certainly a good reason to doubt Penn State’s ability to win a national title, but Franklin’s failures on the big stage shouldn’t get in the way of another playoff berth.
The Nittany Lions play Ohio State and Oregon, two potential losses, but their only other game against a team ranked in the preseason poll is at home against Indiana.
Any 10-win team from the Big Ten or SEC is going to the playoff, so even with losses to both Oregon and Ohio State, the Nittany Lions should cash this bet.
2025 College Football Playoff Best Bet: Ole Miss to Miss Playoff (-275)
Ole Miss was expected to make the playoff last year thanks to a veteran roster led by quarterback Jaxson Dart.
However, Lane Kiffin’s squad suffered three upset losses 一 all to teams that finished unranked in the final AP poll 一 and missed out on a playoff berth.
So why should we expect Kiffin to navigate this squad through a more challenging schedule with an inexperienced quarterback?
Ole Miss has five games against teams ranked in the preseason AP poll:
- Week 5 vs. LSU
- Week 8 at Georgia
- Week 9 at Oklahoma
- Week 10 vs. South Carolina
- Week 12 vs. Florida
Since Kiffin-led teams tend to play down to their level of competition, it’s also worth mentioning a few potential upsets against Arkansas, Tulane, and Washington State.
Unless quarterback Austin Simmons emerges as an immediate Heisman contender, this is likely to be a rebuilding year for Ole Miss.
2025 College Football Playoff Longshot Bet: Washington to Make Playoff (+950)
This one is appropriately priced as a longshot, so you’re completely justified if you want to skip this one and stick with the more realistic bets.
However, if you want to take a shot at finding this year’s Indiana or SMU, roll with Washington.
The Huskies’ sophomore quarterback Demond Williams was a true freshman last year and made his starting debut on the road in Autzen Stadium against archrival Oregon.
Washington lost the game, but Williams held his own against a tough Ducks defense, completing 17 of 20 passes including 5 of 6 at 10 or more yards downfield.
Williams then almost led Washington to a come-from-behind win against Louisville in the Sun Bowl while throwing for 374 yards and 4 touchdowns.
So while Williams is still searching for his first win as a starter, there’s no doubt he’s ready to lead a competitive Huskies squad this fall.
Unfortunately, the schedule isn't easy.
Washington plays four teams ranked in the preseason AP Top 25:
- Week 5 vs. Ohio State
- Week 8 at Michigan
- Week 9 vs. Illinois
- Week 14 vs. Oregon
The Huskies will likely lose to Ohio State, but Michigan and Illinois are both winnable games if Williams fully lives up to expectations.
If the Huskies can win just one of those first three big games and take care of business against the teams they’re supposed to beat, it could set up an epic showdown against the Ducks in Seattle to close out the regular season with a playoff berth on the line.
