Jets vs. Bills Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 2

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 2 matchup between the Jets and Bills.

Find a breakdown of every Week 2 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Josh Allen (TRUST): Allen was a fantasy juggernaut on Sunday night.

As a passer, Allen threw for 394 yards and 2 touchdowns.

As a runner, Allen added 30 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He had the highest fantasy score of Week 1 (38.8 points).

It was Allen’s 22nd game scoring 30-plus fantasy points, the most in the league since he entered the NFL.

Buffalo was pressed into an aggressive game script, and they ended up running a league-high 78 plays to propel Allen’s production.

We will not count on the same game environment here as 6.5-point favorites, but the Week 1 showing for both of these defenses and the Jets offense at least keeps the door open for fun game conditions.

We entered last week wondering if the marriage of Aaron Glenn and Steve Wilks would push the Jets to be a more aggressive defense.

That was accurate.

The Jets played man coverage on 44.1% of passing plays (3rd in the league) while blitzing 35.3% of the time (7th).

It would be a mistake if they maintain that approach here.

Allen has tormented man coverage since the start of last season, throwing 22 touchdowns to 3 interceptions against those looks compared to 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions against zone coverages.

The last time that Glenn faced Allen, Allen scored 41.3 fantasy points.

We will see what Glenn learned from that matchup.

In that outing, Detroit played man coverage 51.1% of the time.

Allen faced man coverage at a higher rate just once last year.

Detroit blitzed Allen on a season-high 37.8% of his dropbacks.

Against man coverage in that game, Allen was 13 of 18 for 199 yards (11.1 Y/A) with a touchdown.

When blitzed, he was 9 of 13 for 83 yards (6.4 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns.

Allen also rushed 11 times for 34 yards and 2 touchdowns in that game.

I do feel guilty labeling Allen as a “trust” following a week when he won everyone their matchups, but if Glenn chooses to remain as aggressive in this game and the Jets offense provides some push, we will be looking at another spike week for Allen.

Justin Fields: The only quarterback who scored more fantasy points than Fields (29.5) in Week 1 was Allen.

We are one week in, and the Jets have a team total under 20 points here.

This is a situation where I don't want to overreact to Week 1, but it is also a spot where I don’t want to underreact due to the talent involved, particularly in terms of how it translates to fantasy scoring.

When you ask those types of questions in Week 1, we should be thinking about what we gain or lose by those reactions.

If we are wrong about the Week 1 Jets, then there is little risk being on the aggressive side.

Fields would remain a floor-based starter.

Fields was already a player we were targeting for a QB1 floor through his legs.

If he is even an average passer, he is someone who will close the year as a QB1.

When an offense puts up 394 yards against the Steelers, we should probably not throw it out.

It was just one week, but this new offense showcased the best of what Fields has to offer, coaxing out an impressive passing performance to go along with rushing upside.

If he ends up as an above-average to good passer, then we have lift off for something much greater and on par with what Sunday showed.

This is an archetype that has league-winning potential when those things align.

The 62.9% success rate per play for Fields in Week 1 was his highest rate in a game as a starting quarterback.

Only 4% of Fields' dropbacks resulted in a loss of -1.0 EPA or worse, his lowest rate in any start. His career average is 15.0%.

Of the first-time play callers in Week 1, Tanner Engstrand showed the most.

The Jets used pre-snap motion on 64% of Fields’ dropbacks (9th in the league).

With motion, Fields was 10 of 13 for 140 yards (10.8 Y/A).

Fields completed 8.3% of his passes above expectation, which was fifth in the league in Week 1.

I do expect that to come down based on his career accuracy, but we know the rushing is real.

Fields added 48 yards and 2 touchdowns on Sunday.

Buffalo had a rough night in Week 1 defending the combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.

Jackson ran for 70 yards and a touchdown.

Fields and Breece Hall are not those two, but the Bills consistently struggled defending the mesh point on Sunday night, which created massive runs.

It could help the Bills that they have this quick turnaround in defending another run-first power team with a mobile quarterback.

It could also help the Jets, seeing where Baltimore had success and testing out the adjustments Buffalo has to make in slowing them down.

As noted, we can pump the brakes here given the implied total, but I am treating Week 1 as a reason to be bullish on Fields as a fantasy QB1 who you stick with weekly regardless of the matchup.

Running Back

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