Week 8 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the Los Angeles Chargers host the Minnesota Vikings.
Let's look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 8, including Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, Carolina Panthers running back Rico Dowdle, and Cleveland Browns running back Quinshon Judkins.
Week 8 Prediction: Tua Tagovailoa Under 202.5 Passing Yards (-113) + Over 0.5 INTs (-151)
With this one, I’m doubling down on how bad I think Tagovailoa will be.
This season, Tagovailoa has had 202 passing yards or fewer in four of seven games.
In one of the games he went over, he barely did, passing for 205.
This week, he’ll face a Falcons defense that’s allowed a league-low 155.67 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Josh Allen has the most passing yards against them this season, and that was 180 yards.
Going further, the Falcons defense primarily plays Cover 3.
Opposing quarterbacks have seen it on 89 of their dropbacks.
Against Cover 3 specifically, Tagovailoa has been horrendous.
These numbers are so poor that I had to refresh the page to ensure there wasn’t a bug.
These are the stats: 54.1% completion rate, 398 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions.
Yes, 8 interceptions. He has 10 this season.
That’s absurd.
The Falcons also average 1 interception per game, which makes Tagovailoa’s line that much more perplexing.
Now, let’s examine the games in which Tagovailoa went over 202 passing yards.
- Week 2 vs. New England Patriots: Only faced Cover 3 on 6 dropbacks
- Week 5 vs. Carolina Panthers: Averaged just 3.7 yards per attempt against Cover 3 (11 dropbacks)
- Week 6 vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 2 interceptions versus Cover 3
Tagovailoa is in for a rough game, and I’m slamming the unders.
Week 8 Prediction: Rico Dowdle 12+ Carries (-133)
Dowdle has been on a rampage lately, rushing 70 times for 468 yards (6.7 yards per carry) and 1 touchdown over the last three games.
In Weeks 5 and 6, he had 53 carries for 389 yards and a touchdown.
Of course, that was without fellow running back Chuba Hubbard in the lineup due to injury.
In Hubbard’s first game back, he did outsnap Dowdle 38-33.
However, Dowdle led the way with 17 carries to Hubbard’s 14.
Not only did Dowdle get more carries, but he was far more efficient.
Dowdle ran 17 times for 79 yards, whereas Hubbard ran 14 times for 31 yards.
Having Dowdle on the field is better for the Panthers if they want a chance at upsetting the Bills as a 7.5-point home underdog with Andy Dalton under center.
He’s straight up the better running back right now, and the Bills are vulnerable to opposing running games.
This season, they’re allowing 116 rushing yards per game to the position, which is third-most in the NFL.
Opposing running backs are also averaging 21.33 attempts per game.
We've seen some running back tandems go up against the Bills before, including the Falcons and New Orleans Saints.
For the Falcons, both Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier had double-digit carries, while Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller each had at least 11.
I expect Dowdle to be in the Robinson and Kamara realm, meaning he should be the one seeing the majority of the carries.
Of course, Hubbard will still get work, but if Hubbard can’t generate production, the Panthers will have to look toward Dowdle even more.
Dowdle had 17 carries last week despite being outsnapped, and 12 carries is a reasonable line to reach despite them being such heavy underdogs.
Week 8 Prediction: Quinshon Judkins Under 70.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Last week, I took the over on Judkins at 85.5 rushing yards, and he finished with 84.
I’m not mad, just disappointed.
This time, I’m taking the under, and no, it’s not only because he fell short of my pick last week.
However, some underlying numbers helped me get to this prediction.
Judkins has been great this season.
He’s finished with fewer than 70 yards just twice.
However, he’s averaged 3.9 yards per carry in half of his games.
While he had 84 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns last week against the lowly Dolphins, he did it on 25 carries (3.4 yards per carry).
Now, he’ll face a New England Patriots defense on the road that’s allowing just 59 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.
In fact, no single running back hit 70 yards against the Patriots.
Going further, when trailing by 0-7 points (the Browns are 7-point underdogs), Judkins has had 44 carries for 166 yards, averaging 3.8 yards per carry.
Something else to consider is that Judkins has received 88% of his carries in the first half.
Thus, if he’s under 70 rushing yards at halftime, you can feel fairly confident that he’ll finish under this line.
Not only that, but his yards per carry drop dramatically after the first quarter:
- First quarter: 63 carries for 316 yards (5.0 yards per carry), and 3 touchdowns.
- Second quarter: 33 carries for 119 yards (3.6 yards per carry), and 1 touchdown.
- Third quarter: 8 carries for 20 yards (2.5 yards per carry).
- Fourth quarter: 5 carries for 12 yards (2.4 yards per carry), and 1 touchdown.
The Patriots have a fantastic run defense, and while Judkins gets a bunch of work, he’s quite inefficient.
Pass.
