After back-to-back weeks for the article hitting the passing yards leader, Joe Flacco rose from the injury report to put up a season high 470 passing yards in a thrilling game with the Chicago Bears.
Our pick, Daniel Jones, was second in passing yards, which highlights that the process is becoming consistent in identifying quarterbacks with the ability to outperform their projection.
The Bears-Bengals game provided a great back-and-forth environment for the spike in passing yards, as Flacco had 226 of his passing yards in the fourth quarter alone, a fourth quarter in which the Bengals trailed by 14 points with just under five minutes left.
Through nine weeks of the season, six of the weekly touchdown leaders have been involved in a game with a lead change in the final two minutes, and the other three quarterbacks were trailing at halftime.
Game state continues to be very important as teams that jump out to early leads have lower passing volume in the later stages of the game, despite high efficiency.
Identifying which of the home underdogs can win or keep the game competitive should be the first step in selecting which games to attack for DFS and passing props.
NFL Weekly Passing Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Quarterback | Passing Yards | Opponent | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | 394 | Baltimore Ravens | 41-40 |
| 2 | Russell Wilson | 450 | Dallas Cowboys | 37-40 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | 300 | Denver Broncos | 23-20 |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | 375 | Indianapolis Colts | 27-20 |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford | 389 | San Francisco 49ers | 23-26 |
| 6 | Mac Jones | 347 | Tampa Bay Bucs | 19-30 |
| 7 | Justin Herbert | 420 | Indianapolis Colts | 24-38 |
| 8 | Jordan Love | 360 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 35-25 |
| 9 | Joe Flacco | 470 | Chicago Bears | 42-47 |
Most Week 10 Passing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Drake Maye (+1000)
The Patriots enter Sunday as a 2.5-point road underdog against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which checks the box of expecting a competitive game state.
This game also features two offenses that are significantly better at passing the ball than running, and two defenses that are elite at defending the run and below average at defending passes.
I still have concerns regarding Mike Vrabel completely unleashing Drake Maye as the Patriots average 28.5 pass attempts per game, which ranks 28th.
The Patriots passing attack is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt this year, which only trails the Seattle Seahawks.
Maye has attempted 41.5 pass attempts in the Patriots' two losses, which provides some hope that he has a spike game as a road underdog.
Six of the nine New England Patriots games have ended with the game being decided by a touchdown, and eight of the nine have had halftime point margins of a touchdown or less.
That makes Maye a solid candidate to be in a competitive game state.
Maye faces an aggressive defense this week.
However, he has the ability to scramble and has completed 73.7% of his passes this season against the blitz.
On running back attempts, the Buccaneers have averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry in six consecutive games and are 24th in rushing success rate, a drop from sixth in Liam Coen’s 2024 offense.
Both offenses struggle to run the ball efficiently, which should promote a higher passing rate game, resulting in higher play volume.
The ingredients are present for Maye to continue his incredible sophomore season on Sunday in Tampa Bay.
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Week 10 Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Jacoby Brissett Passing Ladders
- Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-111)
- 300+ Passing Yards (+419)
- Over 36 Pass Attempts (+112)
- 40+ Pass attempts (+262)
In his first two starts, both losses, Brissett averaged 40 attempts per game, exceeding 36 in both games.
The Seahawks defense is facing an average of 37 pass attempts per game, including more than 40 in 50% of their games.
The Cardinals have struggled to run the ball this season and currently sit at 28th in rushing success rate.
Seattle’s defense ranks eighth in success rate against the run.
Since Brissett has taken over as Arizona's starting quarterback, the Cardinals are throwing the ball 6% over expectation, providing confidence that this team has no problem leaning on Brissett’s arm.
As a home underdog, Brissett will have plenty of passing opportunities against the Seahawks.
