Raiders vs. Cowboys Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 11

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 11 matchup between the Raiders and Cowboys.

Find a breakdown of every Week 11 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Dak Prescott: Dak had a couple of cold games heading into the bye, closing as the QB23 (6.6 points) against Denver and the QB18 (15.4 points) against Arizona.

After throwing 3 interceptions over his first seven games, he has thrown 3 in the past two games.

Prescott comes out of the bye in what looks like a fantasy-friendly environment.

He will be facing a Las Vegas defense that is not scary on paper but has done enough to limit passing production in the box score.

The Raiders are 23rd in pressure rate (32.8%) and 25th in sack rate (5.7%).

Prescott has averaged only 6.7 yards per pass attempt (26th) without pressure, but does have a 6.9% touchdown rate (8th).

When pressured, he averages 7.9 Y/A (3rd) but has a 1% touchdown rate (29th).

Despite not getting to the quarterback often, the Raiders have held up on the back end.

They have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in only three games, ranking 11th in yards per pass attempt (6.9) and 10th in touchdown rate (4%).

They have allowed only three QB1 scoring weeks, and two of those quarterbacks (Marcus Mariota and Trevor Lawrence) rushed for touchdowns (Lawrence 2).

They have faced Drake Maye (QB18), Justin Herbert (QB16), Caleb Williams (QB24), Daniel Jones (QB17), and Bo Nix (QB25) as part of the sample of passers who have underperformed their averages against them.

Prescott is more of a floor-based QB1 here.

Dallas has a high team total, and they can be coaxed into a shootout to generate upside.

Geno Smith: Smith was battered and nearly broken last Thursday against Denver.

He seemingly was knocked out of the game twice and could not walk off the field, but he and Pete Carroll say he will be good to go this week.

Carroll has not been the most reliable voice on injuries, so we will see how Smith practices.

With the Thursday-to-Monday schedule, he does have some extra time.

Smith has not played clean football this season.

He has the highest interception rate in the NFL (4.5%) with a 9.2% sack rate (24th).

He is averaging 6.9 yards per pass attempt (22nd) with a 4.1% touchdown rate.

The Dallas defense has been the elixir for many offensive woes, so there is appeal here for Smith as a matchup-based streamer.

Smith has left some good matchups on the floor against the Titans (QB26) and Bears (QB29), so he has not been a sure thing against bad pass defenses, but the Dallas offense can push the game state.

Smith does have two QB1 scoring weeks, and they have come in great spots against the Commanders (26.1 points) and Jaguars (26.3 points).

The Cowboys are allowing a league-high 20.2 passing points to quarterbacks, and on top of that, are 30th in rushing points allowed to the position (5.2 per game).

Every quarterback they have faced this season has scored at least 17 fantasy points, which would be spike week for Smith, who has scored single-digit points in six of his nine games.

One thing of note here is that Dallas can actually rush the passer.

They are ninth in pressure rate (39.7%) and only allow 5.9 Y/A (12th) when they do get pressure.

It is when they do not get pressure that they are allowing 9.5 yards per attempt, 31st in the league.

The Raiders are still without Kolton Miller, and just placed starting right guard Jackson Powers-Johnson on injured reserve.

Smith is averaging 5.5 Y/A when pressured (21st) and a 1.3% touchdown rate (25th).

Running Back

Javonte Williams: Williams has slowed down a bit after a hot start to the year.

After averaging 105 yards from scrimmage per game over his first five games, he has averaged 71 yards per game over his past four.

Williams has had more than 1 reception in just one of his past five games.

The Dallas offensive line has not done him a lot of favors of late.

After averaging 1.53 yards before contact over his first five games, Williams has only averaged 0.62 yards before contact per rush over the past four games.

He is still creating his own yards, however.

His 3.87 yards after contact per rush over the past four weeks is fourth in the league.

He also still has a high workload.

When we last saw him in Week 9, he handled 94.1% of the backfield touches.

He is more of a volume-based RB2 that can moonlight as an RB1 when he gets into the end zone, similar to Kyren Williams.

The Raiders are a weird defense.

Not many believe they are a good unit, and they don’t scare anyone on paper, but they aren't allowing much rushing production, either.

They are allowing 4.0 yards per carry to backs (9th) and are third in the NFL in yards allowed before contact per rush (0.82) to backfields.

The most rushing yards in a game they have allowed is 84.

They have not faced the most daunting schedule in the league, but that does include limiting Jonathan Taylor to 66 yards rushing and 3.9 YPC — he still had 3 touchdowns.

Ashton Jeanty: Jeanty found little room to work on Thursday night against Denver, turning 22 touches into 63 yards.

He did manage to get into the end zone to boost his night.

We have not seen Jeanty rush for 4.0 YPC in a game since Week 5.

He has failed to gain yardage on 28.7% of his runs, last among 27 running backs with 100-plus attempts.

He only averages 0.66 yards before contact per rush, ahead of only Quinshon Judkins (0.54).

As noted, the Raiders are down another offensive lineman in Powers-Johnson.

Dallas has been a gift for rushing efficiency, but they do have some changes coming out of the bye after acquiring Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson.

Williams is a significant addition to the run defense.

He has the second-highest run defense grade for interior linemen this season.

Even if you scoff at those grades and take them with a grain of salt, there is proof in the numbers.

Over the past four years, the Jets have allowed 4.4 YPC with 1.30 yards before contact per rush on running back runs with Williams off the field.

With him on the field, they allow 3.9 YPC and 0.87 yards before contact.

Can he completely flip a run defense allowing 4.9 YPC to backs (25th)?

Probably not to a front-end run defense, but his addition and the loss of Powers-Johnson are notable variables here.

Jeanty still has enough work to be in that fringe RB1/RB2 area based on the position's landscape, and they are using him in the passing game.

Over his past five games, Jeanty is the RB4 in target share (15.8%) with 4.4 targets per game over that span.

He has 79.8% of his backfield touches, second in the league behind Jonathan Taylor.

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb: Since Lamb returned to the lineup, he has had games of 5-110-1 (8 targets), 7-74-0 (10 targets), and 7-85-0 (12 targets).

He has seen target rates of 26.7%, 28.6%, and 33.3%.

He also has 3 of the 6 team targets in the end zone since his return.

He has 2.44 yards per route run (WR6).

Lamb is a high-floor, high-upside WR1 for fantasy.

Lamb is playing a career-low 33.6% rate in the slot this year since KaVontae Turpin is playing more snaps, but he still gets to move inside enough to have varied usage.

He has slightly better splits inside (29.7% target rate and 2.53 yards per route) but is plenty good outside, as well (25.5% target rate and 2.40 yards per route).

The Raiders are allowing 8.8 yards per target (21st) and a 7.3% touchdown rate (26th) to WR1 options.

Where Lamb will catch the best of this matchup is when he is on the outside.

The Raiders are allowing 9.3 yards per target (23rd) to outside receivers.

Wide receivers have scored 53.7% of the fantasy points allowed by Las Vegas, the highest share in the league.

George Pickens (TRUST): Pickens has held a high floor since Lamb returned to the lineup, posting games of 4-82-0, 7-78-0, and 6-79-0.

He did not have a touchdown in any of those games, but he has sturdy WR2 usage.

He has 23.8% of the targets over that span (WR22) with 2.10 yards per route (WR21).

He is an upside WR2 here.

As mentioned above, the Raiders have been worse on the perimeter against wideouts, where Pickens plays 91% of his snaps.

They also have been worse downfield, which aligns with that.

They have allowed a 53.3% completion rate to wide receivers on throws 10 or more yards downfield (25th) and a 41.4% rate on throws 20 or more yards downfield to receivers (24th).

When Dak Prescott sees single-high, he is looking to push the ball to Pickens.

The Raiders are second in the league in the rate of Cover 3 (49.1%).

Even with Lamb on the field, Pickens has a team-high 31% target share against Cover 3 with 2.70 yards per route.

Tre Tucker: Since his 145-yard, 3-touchdown game in Week 3, Tucker has not cleared 70 yards or found the end zone since.

Tucker is an all-or-nothing WR4/FLEX option, but what is keeping him in play here is that he is playing the most snaps of any Las Vegas receiver, and the matchup is open for his skill set.

Tucker was on the field for 100% of the dropbacks in Week 10 and has been on the field for 96.1% of them this season.

Dallas added some reinforcements to their front-seven, but the back end remains a liability.

The Cowboys are closer to getting Malik Hooker back, but they will still be without Trevon Diggs.

Tucker takes a step of faith in terms of earning targets, but you can attack Dallas downfield.

They have allowed a league-high 18 receptions to wide receivers on throws 20 or more yards downfield.

7 of those have been touchdowns, also the most in the league.

Dallas has allowed a league-high 13 receptions of 30 or more yards to wide receivers.

Raders WRs: In the wake of trading Jakobi Meyers, Tyler Lockett ran a route on 80% of the dropbacks in Week 10, which was second after Tucker.

It is borderline egregious to throw Lockett into that role with two rookie wideouts on the roster you could be getting reps for, but Carroll loves Lockett.

Lockett led the team in targets (6), receptions (5), and yards (44) in Week 10.

Lockett played on only 36.4% of dropbacks in one or two WR sets while playing 65% of his snaps from the slot.

That is still advantageous here, since Dallas allows 8.9 yards per target to slot receivers (29th).

I do not expect Lockett to lead the team in targets again, but he is a deeper-end FLEX in PPR formats if you are needy for a floor.

Dont’e Thornton was next among the wideouts with a 60% route rate.

He had a bad drop, but his downfield potential does fit into this matchup if you are throwing a Hail Mary in deeper leagues or single-game DFS.

Thornton is averaging 16.4 air yards per target.

If he catches anything, there is a good bet it will be for viable yardage.

Jack Bech only ran 8 routes on Thursday (22.9%) without a catch.

Tight End

Brock Bowers: Bowers only caught 1 of his 3 targets on Thursday for 31 yards.

Despite the down night, Bowers has still been targeted on 24% of his routes (TE3) with 2.14 yards per route (TE3).

He is a TE1 fantasy play in a game where the Raiders should have passing success (at least in the context of their season-to-date performance).

We were expecting this passing game to struggle against Denver systemically, but the tables are turned here.

Dallas is 23rd in receptions allowed per game to tight ends (6.0).

Over the past five games, they have allowed solid outings to Mason Taylor (9-67-0), Zach Ertz (3-37-1), and Trey McBride (5-55-1).

Jake Ferguson: Ferguson has been the most volatile of the core pass catchers for Dallas when everyone has been available.

In his games played with Lamb, Fergson has been TE22 (5-23-0), TE3 (9-78-0), TE4 (7-29-2), TE53 (0-0-0), and TE24 (5-50-0).

With Lamb off the field, Ferguson was targeted on 27% of his routes with 1.69 yards per route.

With Lamb on the field, he has been targeted on 20.8% of his routes with 1.13 yards per route.

Ferguson is only averaging 6.9 yards per catch, so he needs volume or touchdowns.

Only Jonnu Smith (6.3 yards) and Drew Sample (4.8) average fewer yards per catch among 49 tight ends with 100-plus routes this year.

This is not a spot to lean on that happening, leaving Ferguson as a back-end TE1.

We have already highlighted that the Raiders give up the bulk of their points to wide receivers.

Tight ends account for only 16.8% of the receptions allowed by the Raiders, the third-lowest rate in the league.

They have allowed a 4.1% touchdown to tight ends (6th).

Michael Mayer: Mayer was back down to running a route on 40% of the dropbacks in Week 10, catching 3 of 4 targets for 22 yards.

He has not cleared 50 yards in any game this season, leaving him as a touchdown-or-bust swing.

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