Week 13 of the 2025 NFL season is here!
There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Titans facing the Jaguars and the 49ers facing the Browns.
Week 13 Best Bet Prediction: Tennessee Titans Over 17.5 Points (+101)
Gamblers who want to eat some chalk can get the Titans over 16.5 points at other sportsbooks, but I’ll take the +101 odds at Caesars Sportsbook for Tennessee to go over 17.5 points against their AFC South rival, the Jaguars.
According to Sumer Sports, Jacksonville’s defense is eighth in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play (-0.05) but just 14th in success rate (43.28%).
Their EPA allowed per play is aided by forcing 18 turnovers in 11 games.
However, Cam Ward might not help the Jaguars by being reckless with the football.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Ward’s 3.2% turnover-worthy play rate since Mike McCoy took the reins as Tennessee’s interim head coach in Week 7 is the 16th-lowest mark among 41 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks.
The top pick in this year’s NFL Draft hasn’t thrown an interception in three straight starts and lost just one fumble in that span.
Ward also had a respectable showing against the Seahawks last week, completing 28 of 42 passes (66.7%) for 256 yards and 1 touchdown while adding 6 rushes for 37 yards and 1 touchdown.
Circling back to Jacksonville’s defense, they’ve been unimposing lately.
While the Jaguars held the Chargers to 6 points in Week 11, they’ve permitted 29, 36, and 24 points to the Raiders, Texans, and Cardinals in their other three games since their Week 8 bye.
They’ve allowed at least 20 points to seven of their last eight opponents.
Jacksonville’s defense also hasn’t traveled this season.
According to StatHead, the Jaguars have allowed 141 points (28.2 per game) in five games on the road and yielded 1,808 yards (361.6 per game) in those contests.
Despite Tennessee’s shortcomings, they’ve scored 20, 13, and 24 points in their previous three games, all at home.
The 13-point dud was forgivable against the Texans and their supremely talented defense.
As Rich Hribar noted in the Week 13 Worksheet, Ward has made strides since the club fired Brian Callahan.
Ward doesn’t need to be a world-beater to lead the Titans to at least 18 points against Jacksonville’s unimpressive defense.
Week 13 Best Bet Prediction: San Francisco 49ers Under 20.5 Points (-120)
The Browns have a fearsome defense.
Per Sumer Sports, they’re tied for second in EPA allowed per play (-0.13), tied for third in EPA allowed per pass (-0.10), first in EPA allowed per rush (-0.16), and first in success rate (36.76%) allowed.
Cleveland is also excellent in traditional measures.
According to Pro Football Reference, they’re fifth in yards allowed per play (4.7), tied for ninth in turnovers forced (15), fifth in pressure rate (25.8%), second in sacks (42), and 13th in scoring defense (22.2 points per game).
The Browns are even more fearsome at home.
According to TruMedia, the Browns have allowed only 258.0 yards per game, 4.5 yards per play, 101.4 rushing yards per game, 3.9 yards per carry, 156.6 passing yards per game, and 5.6 net yards per pass attempt in four home games against the Bengals, Packers, Dolphins, and Ravens.
Cleveland has tallied 4.3% interceptions per pass attempt and 14.4% sacks per pass attempt at home as well.
In those games, they allowed 17, 10, 6, and 23 points, for an average of 14 per game and a median of 8.
The 49ers have a talented offense, and Kyle Shanahan is an offensive whiz.
Nevertheless, Brock Purdy hasn’t been sharp since returning from turf toe in Week 11.
Purdy’s 7.7% turnover-worthy play rate since Week 11 is tied for the third-highest mark among 37 quarterbacks with at least 10 dropbacks.
Purdy has 5 turnover-worthy plays and only one big-time throw in the past two games.
Revisiting Rich’s Week 13 Worksheet, Jim Schwartz’s defenses have given Shanahan’s offenses significant issues.
Schwartz took Purdy’s lunch money in Cleveland back in Week 6 of the 2023 season en route to holding the 49ers to just 17 points.
The weather forecast isn’t scoring friendly, either.
Toss in that the 49ers are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football and traveling across the country for a 1:00 p.m. ET contest, and they’re unlikely to be the second team to exceed 20.5 points against the Browns in Cleveland this year.
