With Jaxson Dart set to return in Week 13, Jameis Winston played like he had nothing to lose and passed for 366 yards in an overtime loss against the Detroit Lions.
Game state continues to be the most important storyline for peak passing outcomes.
Outlier performances happen in games that come right down to the wire or for teams that fall behind early.
Through 12 weeks of the season, seven of the weekly passing yardage leaders have been involved in a game with a lead change in the final two minutes, and four quarterbacks were trailing at halftime, with Jared Goff and the Lions offense scoring 42 points and winning by 3 touchdowns as the outlier.
Game state continues to be very important.
Teams that jump out to early leads have lower passing volume in the later stages of the game, despite high efficiency.
With several of the elite offenses and healthy quarterbacks playing on Thursday and Friday, Sunday’s slate is less flashy than previous weeks.
In addition to parsing through numerous games with backup quarterbacks, weather is more of an issue as December approaches.
The Rams and Seahawks, who have solid passing matchups, are double-digit favorites and face offenses that may not provide enough pushback for ceiling passing results.
NFL Weekly Passing Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Quarterback | Passing Yards | Opponent | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | 394 | Baltimore Ravens | 41-40 |
| 2 | Russell Wilson | 450 | Dallas Cowboys | 37-40 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | 300 | Denver Broncos | 23-20 |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | 375 | Indianapolis Colts | 27-20 |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford | 389 | San Francisco 49ers | 23-26 |
| 6 | Mac Jones | 347 | Tampa Bay Bucs | 19-30 |
| 7 | Justin Herbert | 420 | Indianapolis Colts | 24-38 |
| 8 | Jordan Love | 360 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 35-25 |
| 9 | Joe Flacco | 470 | Chicago Bears | 42-47 |
| 10 | Jared Goff | 320 | Washington Commanders | 44-22 |
| 11 | Jacoby Brissett | 452 | San Francisco 49ers | 22-41 |
| 12 | Jameis Winston | 366 | Detroit Lions | 27-34 |
Most Week 13 Passing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Bo Nix (+2200)
In his first two seasons, good defenses have had Nix’s number, but the Commanders are not a good defense.
The honeymoon phase is over for Dan Quinn as the Commanders have struggled on the defensive side of the ball, especially through the air, allowing a league-high 8.9 yards per pass attempt.
Nix has a favorable matchup and should be able to manufacture success through the air against an aggressive defense.
The biggest hurdle for a Nix ceiling game is the Commanders providing enough pushback to force the Broncos to keep their foot on the gas.
Terry McLaurin is returning from injury, which provides another receiving option for the Commanders, who are likely going to have to lean on Marcus Mariota‘s arm to have any chance at keeping this game close.
The Broncos have not allowed an explosive rush over the past four weeks, which increases the likelihood the Commanders will have to push the game through the air, boosting play volume and shootout potential.
As elite as the Broncos defense is, it has been pushed into some high-scoring game scripts, including a 65-point game with the Giants this season.
That game involved 50 Nix pass attempts.
On a smaller Sunday slate, Nix does provide some value against a weak pass defense.
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Week 13 Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Tyler Shough Passing Ladders
- Over 34 Pass Attempts (+119)
- Over 38 Pass Attempts (+468)
The Saints' lack of red zone success against the Falcons hides the fact that the Saints moved the ball against an aggressive defense.
The Saints face another blitz-heavy defense this week.
The Dolphins blitz at the third-highest rate in the league.
Miami's secondary does not match that of the Falcons, as the Dolphins allow a 79% completion rate when they do not get pressure.
There are avenues for success for Kellen Moore, who faces a hyper-aggressive defense on consecutive weeks.
Alvin Kamara has been ruled out, and rookie Devin Neal is dealing with a bit of an ankle injury, which provides a path for the Saints to lean on Shough.
With only two wins on the season, the Saints are incentivized to find out what they have in Shough.
The Saints are nearly a touchdown underdog and don’t have an elite rushing attack.
Shough, who is coming off a 43-pass attempt performance on Sunday, is likely to drop back at a high rate again.
