Oklahoma vs. Michigan, Current Betting Odds:
- Oklahoma -5.5 points
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Oklahoma vs. Michigan Best Bet Prediction:
- Oklahoma -5.5 points
Injuries are a concern for Oklahoma, but after last week's performance by the Wolverines, we're simply betting against Michigan.
Lay the points and take Oklahoma against the spread.
When Oklahoma Is on Offense
Before the 2025 season, Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables tried to breathe some life into his offense by hiring coordinator Ben Arbuckle from Washington State, who then brought his quarterback John Mateer along.
Despite a playoff berth, initial returns on that investment were underwhelming as the Sooners ranked 79th in scoring offense.
A midseason injury to Mateer contributed to those struggles, but Oklahoma is hopeful that a healthy Mateer, plus another offseason together to work out the kinks, will turn things around.
For Oklahoma's offense to click, the Sooners must be able to protect Mateer.
When pressured, Mateer took a sack 19% of the time last year, ranked 106th in the country, per Sports Info Solutions.
Fortunately for Mateer, the offensive line fared relatively well last season.
The Sooners ranked 36th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed.
However, the unit was without two projected starters in its season-opening win over UTEP and lost another during the game.
Center Jake Maikkula and guard Ryan Fodje (who was also initially expected to replace Maikkula at center) missed the game due to injuries.
Left tackle Michael Fasusi then left the game after just 17 snaps due to an injury.
Oklahoma is hopeful to get Maikkula and Fodje back for this game, but Fasusi's return sounds doubtful.
If healthy, Fodje 一 who started the offseason practicing at right guard before shifting to center while also taking reps at tackle 一 would likely replace Fasusi.
A recently-injured player making his season debut at a position where he's had minimal practice reps isn't exactly ideal against a defense like Michigan.
Michigan's defense ranked 11th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate last year and generated a strong 56% pressure rate in its opener against Western Michigan, so continued success from the pass-rush unit is expected.
In addition to Mateer's issues against pressure, Oklahoma's offense also struggled due to Mateer's inability to consistently challenge defenses downfield.
On throws of 15 or more yards, Mateer completed just 38% of his passes, ranked 70th in the country, per Sports Info Solutions.
However, in four games before breaking his throwing hand, including contests against quality defenses in Michigan and Auburn, Mateer had completed 48% of his throws at that depth.
And in Oklahoma's playoff game against Alabama, following a few weeks of rest, Mateer was 6 for 8 with a touchdown on those downfield throws.
So there's reason to think Mateer might continue his development as a downfield passer, especially with the addition of former Virginia receiver Trell Harris, who led UVA in downfield receptions last year and caught 72% of his catchable targets of 15 or more yards.
The RPO game will also be a critical matchup, especially given the changes in the Michigan coaching staff.
RPOs are a central piece of Arbuckle's offense, accounting for 26% of plays last season, according to Sports Info Solutions.
The Sooners ran 24 RPOs in this matchup last year, but Michigan limited them to just 3.4 yards per play.
That was par for the course for Michigan, which ranked 17th in the nation in yards per play allowed against RPOs.
New Michigan coordinator Jay Hill, however, comes from BYU, where his defense only ranked 59th in yards per play against RPOs despite having one of the strongest defenses in the Big 12.
Hill likes to be aggressive in disguising his defense's looks, which can confuse the quarterback and help defend the pass.
However, Hill's disguises are likely less effective against RPOs because the quarterback is primarily reacting to what he sees after the snap, once the defense has already committed.
Unfortunately for the Sooners, health is also a factor in the backfield.
Starting running back Tory Blaylock missed the season opener, and his status is unclear.
At best, it sounds like he could play at less than full strength.
With Blaylock hurt, expect Mateer to play a critical role in the run game, especially since the read-option is already a focal point of the Sooners' offense.
In 2025, 48% of Oklahoma's run plays came out of the read-option, per Sports Info Solutions.
This is also an area where we will see whether Hill's defense has a negative impact on this matchup, because Michigan ranked 20th in defending the read-option last year while BYU ranked 59th.
Western Michigan ran the read-option 11 times for 43 yards against Michigan last week 一 not exactly a dominant performance, but certainly more success than anyone expected for a MAC team against one of the Big Ten's better units.
When Michigan Is on Offense
Michigan's offense is coming off a pathetic performance against Western Michigan, primarily due to Bryce Underwood‘s inability to get anything done in the passing game.
Kyle Whittingham brought coordinator Jason Beck with him to Michigan, which was supposed to revive the Wolverine offense.
Beck runs a fast-paced offense with lots of short, easy throws, but it relies heavily on the quarterback's ability to make quick decisions to keep the offense on schedule.
Apparently, that is not Underwood's strength because he looked helpless against Western Michigan.
Devon Dampier, Beck's quarterback at Utah last year, took a traditional dropback 34% of the time, the nation's 18th-lowest rate.
Non-traditional dropbacks typically lead to lots of quick throws and a high completion percentage, but Underwood struggled to make that happen consistently.
When Underwood got rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds, he completed 7 of 11 passes, but he was 5 for 11 when holding the ball longer, according to Pro Football Focus.
Another issue developed for Michigan, however.
Underwood averaged just 4.5 yards per attempt on those throws released under 2.5 seconds.
The problem on those plays is more about Michigan's lack of weapons at receiver, though Underwood's inconsistent ball placement certainly factors in.
Michigan's top receivers (JJ Buchanan and Andrew Marsh) have not yet proven to be dynamic weapons after the catch, which could hold back Beck's offense even if Underwood improves.
Against Western Michigan, Buchanan and Marsh combined to gain just 22 yards after the catch on eight receptions (2.8 YAC per reception).
One reason for the poor performance might also be the defense's lack of respect for Underwood's downfield throwing ability.
Based on route-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, Underwood's on-target rate was 14% below expected when throwing to explosive routes (routes which produce 20 or more yards per reception), ranked 57th out of 73 power-conference quarterbacks.
He showed no sign of development against the Broncos, completing just 2 of 8 passes at 15 or more yards downfield.
So if the defense doesn't respect his arm, it's easier to cheat up and defend the underneath passes and the running game.
There was some evidence of this affecting the running game against Western Michigan, as Michigan's ball carriers struggled to get loose despite an effective performance from the offensive line.
Check out these numbers for Michigan's running backs against Western Michigan, via Sports Info Solutions:
- 2.2 yards before contact per attempt
- 1.5 yards after contact per attempt
Only 1.5 yards after contact for a backfield led by 220-pound Jordan Marshall is a concerning development, especially with Oklahoma on deck.
In 2025, the Sooners ranked 26th in opponent-adjusted yards after contact allowed to running backs.
If the Sooners have the confidence to cheat up to defend the run, it could be another long day for the Michigan offense.
Final Thoughts on Michigan vs. Oklahoma Best Bets
There's no reason to trust Michigan's offense, so let's lay the points and take Oklahoma against the spread.
Michigan's defense could potentially keep them in the game, especially if injuries limit Oklahoma's effectiveness on offense, but there's reason to believe Mateer and the passing game have improved enough for the Sooners to cover this modest spread.
