The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Bears vs. Packers Week 5 matchup.
Find a breakdown of every Week 5 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Chicago | Rank | @ | Green Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.0 | Spread | 3.0 | ||
| 24.25 | Implied Total | 21.25 | ||
| 28.0 | 9 | Points/Gm | 18.3 | 28 |
| 16.3 | 4 | Points All./Gm | 26.3 | 23 |
| 74.5 | 1 | Plays/Gm | 58.8 | 24 |
| 48.0 | 1 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.0 | 27 |
| 5.8 | 10 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 16 |
| 5.9 | 27 | Def. Yards/Play | 5 | 8 |
| 53.4% | 2 | Rush% | 31.1% | 32 |
| 46.6% | 31 | Pass% | 68.9% | 1 |
| 43.2% | 18 | Opp. Rush % | 51.2% | 30 |
| 56.8% | 15 | Opp. Pass % | 48.9% | 3 |
- Green Bay is one of two remaining teams (Pittsburgh being the other) without a rushing touchdown yet this season.
- The Packers are last in the NFL in rushing EPA on offense (-28.92).
- Chicago is converting 23.7% more third downs than their opponents, the best differential in the league.
- Green Bay is converting 25.7% fewer third downs than their opponents, the worst differential in the league.
- The Packers have allowed a touchdown on a league-high 85.7% (12 of 14) of red-zone trips.
- The Bears have allowed 1.08 points per drive the past three weeks (2nd).
- Chicago has punted on a league-low 19% of their drives. The league average is 35.7%.
- The Bears have a league-high 14 possessions with 10 or more offensive plays.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bears vs. Packers Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Jordan Love
The Packers made changes up front and in their approach in Week 4 after the brutal Week 3 display against the Falcons.
Green Bay turned to a Laken Tomlinson and Travis Glover as new starting guards.
Love completed a season-high 73.3% of his passes (22 of 30), was pressured on a season-low 13.3% of his dropbacks, and did not take a sack.
Before crediting the changing of the guards, the team also shifted to a top-down approach in the quick game that helped.
Love threw the ball within 2.24 seconds of the snap on average, his fastest time this season.
He got rid of the ball within 2.5 seconds on a season-high 70% of his throws.
Love threw the ball at or behind the line of scrimmage on a season-high 36.7% of his throws.
He threw to wide receivers at a season-low 46.7% rate.
His previous WR target rates were 72.5%, 75.9%, and 64.7%.
Green Bay was more balanced, dropping back at a season-low 54.5% rate.
When the dust settled, Love threw for 197 yards (6.6 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns and an interception.
We will continue to monitor how Green Bay calibrates its offensive approach.
Something similar could be on tap this week with Chicago blitzing at a 37.1% rate (7th) and getting pressure at a 41% rate (8th).
There is some shootout appeal here that could give Love upside, but he is best used as a QB2 given all the moving parts.
He has thrown multiple touchdowns in all four games this season but only has one week in the front half of weekly scoring.
The Bears may also not be as poor on defense as we assumed after Week 1, especially given how our priors on the Carolina offense have changed.
Over the past three weeks, the Bears have allowed a 57.4% completion rate (4th) and 6.8 yards per pass attempt (13th).
They faced Carson Wentz in the rain, Jalen Hurts and the struggling Philly offense, and Geno Smith on the Jets' lowest play volume in Super Bowl era as excuses, but the Bears didn't let any of those teams punch up, either.
I am not ready to declare the Bears a front-end unit until they are truly pushed, but this Green Bay offense isn't one we are considering a strong offense at this stage of the season, either.
The Bears should be able to move the ball here and push the Packers, so there is an upside angle.
There are just so many variables in motion that it is hard to diagnose what to lean on from an evidence-based lens.
Tyson Bagent
Bagent technically didn't start last week, but he has already been declared the starter this week.
In his first real full appearance since his rookie year, Bagent completed 25 of 34 passes (73.5%) for 268 yards (7.9 Y/A) with no touchdowns and an interception.
He ended the week as the QB29 (8.8 points).
The Bears ran all over the Jets, and Bagent wasn't tasked with much lifting, with the game plan centered on a high success rate.
He averaged 5.1 air yards per attempt (28th), and although he did not operate as quickly in the pocket as Case Keenum in Week 3, Bagent threw to his first reads 67.6% of the time and got the ball out within 2.5 seconds of the snap on 36.1% of his throws.
The Bears used play action on a season-high 44.1% of Bagent's dropbacks, but they also ran at will.
Last week was not enough to suggest Bagent as a 1QB streamer, but there is not a ton here to make you hide from him in 2QB formats.
The Packers have faced a light opening schedule of Carson Wentz, Geno Smith, Michael Penix, and Jalon Daniels, and are 21st in passing points allowed per attempt (0.45).
They are only allowing 6.9 Y/A (13th), but against the one opponent they faced that can run the ball in Atlanta, Penix threw for 10.2 Y/A.
Chicago can run it and set up passing efficiency.
Bears vs. Packers Fantasy Running Back Preview
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More Week 5 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Week 5 NFL Games | Time |
|---|---|
| Bucs @ Cowboys | Thursday Night Football |
| Eagles vs. Jaguars | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Giants @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Falcons | Sunday Night Football |
| Bills @ Rams | Monday Night Football |
