Texas vs. Oklahoma, Current Betting Odds:
- Texas -7.5 points
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Texas vs. Oklahoma Best Bet Prediction:
- Oklahoma +7.5 points
The defenses are far and away the best units on the field, so bet on a tight, low-scoring game and take Oklahoma against the spread.
When Texas Is on Offense
Questions are mounting for Steve Sarkisian‘s offense, which continues to underwhelm despite massive offseason investments to upgrade the talent around Arch Manning.
Despite adding Cam Coleman, the transfer portal's most dangerous pass-catcher, and two athletic running backs (Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers), Texas ranks 130th in explosive play rate, gaining 20 or more yards on just 4.2% of plays.
Texas' lack of explosive ability on offense mostly stems from Manning's continued inability to connect with his receivers downfield.
Check out Manning's on-target rate on throws 10 or more yards downfield, via Sports Info Solutions:
- 2025: 52%, ranked 81st
- 2026: 51%, ranked 102nd
Upgrading the talent around Manning has helped slightly 一 Texas receivers have caught 83% of on-target throws at that depth, ranked 14th 一 but if Manning can't consistently get them the ball, the overall impact is minimal.
This trend is especially concerning against an Oklahoma defense which thrives on creating chaos and getting its hands on the ball.
Oklahoma ranks fifth in the country in ball-hawk rate, making a play on the ball on 19% of opponent pass attempts.
Since Manning struggles to make plays downfield, especially under pressure, protecting him will be critical to the success of Texas' passing attack.
So let's check out the pass protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Texas: ranked 34th in pressure rate allowed
- Oklahoma: ranked 14th in pressure rate generated
The Sooners had success getting to Manning in last year's meeting, generating a 48% pressure rate, the second highest of Manning's career.
Assuming Oklahoma can generate consistent pressure again, expect some drive-killing mistakes from Manning.
Manning has taken a sack on 24% of his dropbacks versus pressure, ranked 95th.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma's defense ranks 15th in sack conversion rate, turning 29% of pressures into sacks.
If Texas is concerned about Oklahoma's pass rush, Sark might lean more on the run game, but the Sooners appear to hold an edge there as well based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Texas: ranked 83rd in yards before contact
- Oklahoma: ranked 55th in yards before contact allowed
- Texas: ranked 99th in yards after contact
- Oklahoma: ranked 5th in yards after contact allowed
The issue for Texas' rushing attack has been the offensive line's inability to create open lanes.
Texas running backs have been contacted before crossing the line of scrimmage on 37% of their attempts, only slightly better than the FBS average of 40%.
That has caused significant problems for the offense because neither Brown nor Smothers has been elusive enough to create something out of nothing when they face early contact.
When contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage, Texas running backs have been stuffed for zero or negative yards a staggering 53% of the time, the nation's 10th-highest rate.
Due to the lack of explosive plays, sacks, and negative rush attempts, Texas has reached third down on 46% of its sets of downs.
That issue hasn't been inflated simply by games against Ohio State and Tennessee.
Check out the rate at which Texas has been in third down this season:
- vs. Texas State: 50%
- vs. Ohio State: 42%
- vs. UTSA: 43%
- vs. Tennessee: 50%
Texas survived against Ohio State because the Buckeyes are working through some defensive issues, and they converted 56% of their third-down attempts in that game.
Against Tennessee, however, the Longhorns were 3-12 on third downs, and it nearly cost them the game.
Now check out the third-down defense ranks for Texas' notable opponents:
- Ohio State: ranked 78th
- Tennessee: ranked 56th
- Oklahoma: ranked 3rd
This Sooners defense is a different animal than Texas has faced this season, and it's likely to be a long day for Arch and company.
When Oklahoma Is on Offense
Oklahoma's so-called offense is run by coordinator Ben Arbuckle, who joined the team in 2025 after leading the nation's sixth-ranked scoring offense at Washington State the previous year.
Arbuckle's scheme is similar to the high-powered attack Zach Kittley runs at Florida Atlantic and previously at Western Kentucky and Texas Tech.
You may remember Hilltoppers quarterback Bailey Zappe putting up huge numbers in the scheme when Kittley was his coordinator 一 Arbuckle was the offensive quality control coach that season.
Arbuckle was supposed to bring that scheme to Norman to fix Brent Venables‘ perennially underwhelming offense, but it hasn't worked, in part because he brought quarterback John Mateer from Wazzu.
Mateer has never been able to handle pressure 一 during his one season at Washington State, he had the country's third-worst sack rate versus pressure 一 so expecting him to adjust to SEC defenses was foolish.
So far this season, Mateer has either taken a sack or thrown an interception on 26% of his dropbacks versus pressure.
This issue is compounded by Oklahoma's inability to maintain a healthy offensive line during Mateer's tenure.
Oklahoma has already started three offensive line combinations through four games and will likely be without a few starters again.
Left tackle Michael Fasusi is listed as doubtful, and left guard Eddy Pierre-Louis is questionable.
This is problematic against a Texas defense likely to dominate the pass-protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Oklahoma: ranked 46th in pressure rate allowed
- Texas: ranked 1st in pressure rate generated
To avoid Texas' pass rush, Oklahoma will probably attempt to lean on its rushing attack more, and Mateer will be a part of that game plan.
Oklahoma has used read-option plays on 48% of its rushing attacks, the 15th-highest rate, and Mateer has the athleticism to be dangerous when he keeps the ball.
However, Oklahoma's read-option plays have only produced 3.7 yards per play, below the FBS average of 5.1 yards per attempt.
Texas has only faced 11 read-option plays this year, and four of those were against Texas State, so it's tough to evaluate the Longhorns' performance.
Last year, Texas ranked 11th in defending the read option, but a change in coordinator (Will Muschamp is back) and the loss of star linebacker Anthony Hill to the NFL make it difficult to assume last year's production carries over.
One glimmer of hope for Oklahoma's rushing attack is that Texas has struggled to generate early contact against the run.
Texas has contacted opposing running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage on 39.6% of attempts, ranked 69th.
That's a noteworthy trend because Oklahoma's ball carries tend to go down quickly on contact.
When touched in the backfield, Sooners running backs have been stuffed for zero or negative yards 56% of the time, the nation's fifth-worst rate, per Sports Info Solutions.
It's hard to imagine Oklahoma's offense turning things around, but simply avoiding negative plays might allow the Sooners to extend drives, bleed the clock, and shorten the game.
Final Thoughts on Texas vs. Oklahoma Best Bets
It's hard to imagine either offense having enough success to win by more than a score, so let's take the points and bet Oklahoma against the spread.
The struggles of Texas' offense have gone unnoticed because of its second-half comeback against Ohio State, but we're starting to see that may have been more of a predictor of the Buckeyes' weakness than the Longhorns' strength.
As a result, Texas probably doesn't deserve the respect of a full touchdown spread against a defense like Oklahoma.
