Texans vs. Jaguars Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 6

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Texans vs. Jaguars Week 6 matchup in London.

Find a breakdown of every Week 6 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Texans vs. Jaguars Fantasy Quarterback Preview

Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence had season highs in completions (24), attempts (39), and passing yards (331) Sunday against the Eagles.

He threw 2 touchdowns and threw an interception, matching a season high with 25 rushing yards.

Lawrence has faced a gauntlet of active pass defenses so far this year, completing 67.1% of his passes (8th), averaging 8.2 yards per attempt (5th), and posting a 7% touchdown rate (4th).

He is QB5 in passing points per dropback (0.51) but has been in the top 10 only once this season because of limited dropbacks (31.6 per game, 25th) and the tough defenses he has faced.

Lawrence gets another tough assignment against Houston.

I have him as more of a higher-end QB2 here.

The Texans haven't been as dominant through the air early in the year as in previous seasons, but they are still a unit to respect.

Houston has an 8.8% sack rate on non-blitzes (3rd).

It was only one game against Cam Ward, so take whatever grains of salt you need here, but in the first game with DeMeco Ryans calling plays again, Houston ramped up to a season-high man-coverage rate (20.7%).

They had season-high rates of Cover 1 (20.7%) and Cover 6 (27.6%).

Houston had a 43.9% rate of disguised coverage pre-snap (5th in Week 5) compared to a 23.9% rate coming in (27th).

When Houston has given up plays, they have allowed them downfield.

Passers have completed 57.4% of their passes (31 of 54) on throws 10 or more yards downfield against them (25th).

Lawrence has one QB1 scoring week in 10 career matchups with Houston.

In two outings against Houston last year, Lawrence was the QB28 (7.8 points) and QB21 (9.8 points).

In those games, he completed 52.4% of his passes for 6.0 yards per attempt and threw 1 touchdown pass.

C.J. Stroud

Stroud had another productive game on Sunday against the Titans.

He completed a season-high 76.5% (26 of 34) of his passes for 261 yards and a touchdown, adding a rushing touchdown to his line for his second 20-point game in a row.

With Nico Collins on the field this season, Stroud has completed 70.5% of his passes for 8.6 Y/A.

He averages 0.48 passing points per dropback on those snaps, which would rank QB7 over the full season.

Stroud is one of only three quarterbacks to play every game and still not have thrown an interception.

Stroud has been strong over the past two weeks against Dallas and Tennessee as a streamer and QB1 option.

I am not as bullish on Stroud as I was for the past two weeks, but there are angles for him to have upside as a QB2.

If you were streaming the past two weeks, he is in the mix as a fringe QB1 near Lawrence.

Jacksonville allows 11.8 passing points per game (7th) but has some weak spots as a bend-but-don't-break pass defense.

Jacksonville allows only a 2.3% touchdown rate (2nd), which masks a 65.9% completion rate (21st), 7.7 Y/A (25th), and 11.9 yards per completion (28th).

If they keep giving up those rates, touchdowns will catch up.

Jacksonville is 22nd in expected points allowed to quarterbacks, but 11th in actual points allowed to the position.

I do not have faith in Houston running the ball here, and the Jaguars are a bit of a pass funnel.

Teams against them have thrown the ball 3.4% over expectations (5th highest).

Stroud wasn't good in this matchup last year, which keeps us honest.

He faced Jacksonville only once last year, finishing QB27 (10.4 points).

Texans vs. Jaguars Fantasy Running Back Preview

Bhayshul Tuten

Tuten turned 24 touches into 96 yards on Sunday.

Tuten's only top-20 weeks have included a touchdown (2 of 5 games), but his top-down usage continues to expand.

Over the past two weeks, Tuten has set new season highs, playing 59% and 68.1% of the snaps.

He has handled 76% and 88.9% of the backfield touches in the past two games.

Among 31 backs with 50-plus attempts, Tuten has a 45.1% success rate (6th) and a 10-plus-yard run on 13.4% of his carries (6th), despite being hit at or behind the line on 49% of his runs (22nd).

He is close to being a major breakout.

The only things in the way right now are locked-in touchdown equity and a stronger role in the passing game.

Last week, Chris Rodriguez still came in at the goal line on two separate occasions.

The silver lining for Tuten buyers (I would be one) is that Rodriguez failed to cash on the first attempt, even fumbling at the goal line.

On his second opportunity later in the game, Rodriguez false-started on his own direct snap.

We want to see Tuten get more of those opportunities because, even with Tuten playing more snaps, he has a 45.1% route participation rate over the past two weeks (RB18) and an 8.2% target share (RB29).

As we wait for those two components to develop, Tuten is a touchdown-dependent RB2 in another tough matchup.

Houston's pass defense has been up-and-down to open the season, but they have been consistently strong against the run.

They allow 3.5 yards per carry to running backs (4th), with a 66% success rate (8th) and 0.77 yards allowed before contact per rush (7th).

Jacksonville has allowed a first down or touchdown on a league-best 12% of backfield runs. The league average is 21.9%.

They have allowed a long run of 14 yards to a back so far.

Woody Marks

Marks will lead the backfield on Sunday with David Montgomery “week to week” with a groin injury.

With Montgomery off the field on Sunday, Marks played 98.1% of the snaps with all 19 backfield touches (85 total yards).

That role is enough to make him a volume-based RB2.

Now, the team environment and matchup don't favor his ceiling, so he needs to get into the end zone.

Houston has been miserable running the ball this season.

Marks averages 3.5 YPC (41st out of 43 backs with 25-plus runs), but he has a 10-plus-yard run on 11.6% of his attempts (17th).

Montgomery has a 1.9% rate of runs for 10-plus yards (51st).

Marks has been hit at or behind the line on 53% of his runs.

Jacksonville is allowing a league-low 42.0 rushing yards per game to running backs.

They allow a league-low 2.5 YPC to running backs, with a league-best 75.9% success rate.

They have allowed a run of 10 or more yards on 3.6% of backfield runs, second in the league.

Texans vs. Jaguars Fantasy Wide Receiver Preview

Nico Collins (TRUST)

Collins caught 5 of 7 targets for 56 yards on Sunday, all season lows.

Collins still led the team in targets (21.2%) and air yards (32.2%), so there is nothing to run away from here as a fantasy WR1.

Collins has had a ton of historical success in this matchup.

He has gone over 100 yards receiving in five of his past six games against Jacksonville, including four straight.

Jacksonville is allowing 11.1 yards per target to opposing WR1 targets (30th) and 93.2 yards per game to those receivers (29th).

What has saved them is allowing only a 2.4% touchdown rate to those receivers (5th).

Collins plays 88% of his snaps out wide.

We will see if that changes at all with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr, but Collins is a solid bet to remain the primary X.

The Jaguars are allowing 9.6 yards per target (28th) and 144.2 yards per game (31st) to outside receivers.

Parker Washington

After a quiet Week 4, Washington quickly rebounded with a huge game, catching 6 of 9 targets for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns Sunday against the Eagles.

Washington's first touchdown came on a 51-yard catch-and-run, finally turning around his low YAC numbers to start the year.

Washington had 78 yards after the catch on Sunday, up from just 21 yards after the catch over the first four games.

Washington then added a 27-yard touchdown, catching a one-handed vertical win on Riq Woolen.

Over five games, Washington has 25.4% of Jacksonville's targets (WR12) and 37.8% of the air yards (WR11) for 2.57 yards per route run (WR10).

He has 37.1% of the Jacksonville targets on third down (WR5).

Houston has allowed a 70.2% completion rate on third downs (28th).

Washington is on the WR1/WR2 line here.

Houston has been volatile against WR1 targets, allowing big games to D.J. Moore (5-100-1), Ja'Marr Chase (7-75-2), and CeeDee Lamb (17-189-1), with a modest outing to Josh Downs (5-77-0) before wiping away Carnell Tate (1-6-0) last week.

Jakobi Meyers

Meyers has finished as the WR28 and WR16 in his touchdown-scoring weeks, but in his other three games, he was WR81, WR66, and WR55.

He is a WR5/FLEX.

Meyers is at least a good bet to see a lot of snaps.

He has run a route on 86.7% of the dropbacks, tying Washington for the team lead.

But he has been targeted on only 13.1% of his routes, fourth among Jacksonville wide receivers.

Brian Thomas & Josh Cameron

Thomas did not catch a pass on Sunday, drawing 3 targets on 26 routes (59.1%).

Thomas has run a route on fewer than 60% of dropbacks in three of five games so far.

He is shedding snaps to Josh Cameron, who is playing more in heavy sets for his run blocking.

Cameron has 8 catches for 117 yards and 2 touchdowns while Thomas has 9 catches for 105 yards and 1 score this season.

Thomas has played on only 14.3% of dropbacks with multiple tight ends on the field, while Cameron is at 28.6%.

That leaves Thomas and Cameron as touchdown-or-bust fantasy plays.

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Harrison is getting a change of scenery, heading to Houston in a trade finalized Sunday.

Harrison is getting a quarterback upgrade in his former college teammate C.J. Stroud.

I also expect him to have a wider route tree in Houston, playing more as a Z receiver with Nico Collins as the primary X.

Harrison has been stuck this season as a vertical X only with Arizona.

He should be able to push Xavier Hutchinson and this rotation of receivers as a full-time player given the investment to acquire him.

Harrison still comes with mild expectations (especially in this first game with Houston), however.

Hutchinson has been the WR45, WR44, and WR65 in expected usage in his games played with Collins.

Even if we expect Harrison to be more of a full-time player than Hutchinson, the ceiling expectations here are still limited unless we see Harrison completely transform.

I assume that will still take time, as will his initial playing time in Week 6 if he makes the trip to London.

There are some matchup nuggets here that could provide per-target upside, but Harrison still requires a step of faith as more than a WR4/FLEX, since we are mostly touchdown-hunting.

Texans vs. Jaguars Fantasy Tight End Preview

Brenton Strange

Strange has had a couple of solid games in a row, with 7 receptions (and 8 targets) in each of the past two weeks.

He caught 7 passes over the first three games.

Strange has run a route on 75.9% of dropbacks (TE10) and now has 18.8% of Jacksonville's targets (TE9).

He is a higher-end TE2 here.

Houston ranks seventh in points allowed per target to tight ends (1.50), and they still haven't allowed a touchdown to the position.

Tight ends account for 18.5% of receptions against Houston, the third-lowest rate in the league.

Dalton Schultz

Schultz grabbed 3 of 4 targets for 30 yards against Tennessee.

He got banged up early on an end-zone target but returned to the game.

Schultz has only one top-20 week this season.

Outside of his 140-yard game in Week 2, he has 104 yards in his other four games, with a high of 35 yards.

Schultz is a touchdown-needy TE2.

Only 15.5% of the receptions against Jacksonville have gone to tight ends, the lowest rate in the league.

They are allowing 6.0 yards per target (9th) to tight ends.

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