Steelers vs. Saints Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 7

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Steelers vs. Saints Week 7 matchup in Paris.

Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Steelers vs. Saints Fantasy Quarterback Preview

Tyler Shough

Shough delivered another QB1 scoring week in a unique fashion in Week 5.

He closed the week as the QB2 (27 points).

Shough completed a season-low 53.3% of his passes (16 of 30) for 144 yards (4.8 Y/A).

But three completions went for touchdowns, and he added 32 rushing yards and another touchdown on the ground.

Shough has thrown for only 240 yards in the past two games, with fewer than 5.0 yards per pass attempt in each.

He has thrown for only 5.4 Y/A over the past four weeks (27th in the league), but he has saved his lines with touchdown equity.

Shough has been great in the red zone.

He is 20 of 26 (76.9%) with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions in the red zone.

Shough will need to find his way to touchdown production in a tougher matchup than a week ago.

The Steelers allow 10.9 passing points per game (5th), a 61.7% completion rate (10th), 6.6 Y/A (13th), and a 3% touchdown rate (5th).

Joe Burrow is the only passer to throw multiple touchdowns against Pittsburgh.

They have not faced a number of high-end passers (Jalon Daniels, Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, and Cooper Rush), but they have played Drake Maye.

I would prefer to use Shough as a QB2 here, as his underlying peripherals still suggest fragility.

He can produce more through the air than the front names on that list and can rack up volume, but efficiency is still a question mark.

The Saints have a lower-end team total and still have concerns up front.

Shough has been pressured on 40.9% of his dropbacks over the past month (23rd).

Under pressure over that stretch, Shough has thrown for 3.8 Y/A (26th).

Cesar Ruiz left last week's game with a knee injury and is questionable for Sunday.

Fourth-round rookie Jeremiah Wright stepped in for him last week.

Asim Richards is at left tackle for Kelvin Banks, allowing 11 pressures over the past three weeks (the 4th-most among tackles).

Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in four straight games.

He threw a season-high 49 passes last week in Tampa Bay, completing 33 (67.3%) for 253 yards (5.2 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns and an interception.

The Steelers continue to throw a lot.

Rodgers is averaging 42.0 dropbacks per game (5th).

The Steelers are fourth in pass rate over expectations (6.4%).

Rodgers is a high QB2 here, capable of reaching QB1 range if he stays hot in the touchdown department.

New Orleans allows 15.9 passing points per game (23rd), a 66.5% completion rate (26th), 7.7 Y/A (26th), and a 5% touchdown rate (21st).

Over the past two weeks, Rodgers has averaged only 3.7 and 3.8 air yards per pass attempt.

Only 17.9% and 14% of his attempts in those games were throws 10 or more yards downfield, down from a 38.1% rate over the opening four games.

The Steelers have sped up things as defenses have played them aggressively.

Rodgers faces the league's highest rate of man coverage (39.1%).

That contrasts with what Brandon Staley and the Saints have done.

New Orleans has played man coverage just 9.5% of the time, 30th in the league.

They blitz at a 32.3% rate (10th) but rank 29th in pressure rate (29%).

Steelers vs. Saints Fantasy Running Back Preview

Jaylen Warren

Warren turned 16 touches into 78 total yards Sunday in Tampa Bay.

With Rico Dowdle returning to the lineup, we got a look at what this backfield could look like moving forward.

Warren played 73.7% of snaps (RB10) and handled 61.5% of backfield touches (RB15).

Warren ran a route on 46.2% of the dropbacks (RB17).

Warren played 82.4% of the snaps in the fourth quarter and overtime.

Dowdle had 10 touches for 49 yards.

He ran only 7 routes and played 1 third down.

The initial feel is that Warren has high-end RB2 usage and Dowdle is a touchdown-dependent RB3.

Dowdle out-touched Warren 2-1 in the red zone, something we will keep an eye on.

The initial belief for this split this summer was that Dowdle would push Warren in short yardage, so we want to confirm who is getting goal-line looks.

Warren ran into a tough Tampa Bay front last week, but things get softer here to offer matchup upside.

The Saints allow 4.8 yards per rush to running backs (30th) and have a league-low 53.8% success rate against backs.

They have allowed a league-high 12 touchdowns to running backs, which could help Dowdle if you have to throw a dart on him because of byes or injuries.

Saints RBs

Kendre Miller led the New Orleans backfield with 22 touches for 70 yards on Sunday.

20 of his touches were runs.

The Saints have run the ball on 56.9% of Miller's snaps this season, compared with 37% for Alvin Kamara and 25.5% for CJ Donaldson.

With the Saints up, they leaned on Miller.

Miller played 61% of the second-half snaps, with 15 of his touches.

As underdogs here, Miller's role as a rushing-dependent RB3/FLEX is shakier.

Kamara had 9 touches for 69 yards and a touchdown against the Giants.

He scored on a vintage Kamara play, taking a short pass and weaving through the defense for a 31-yard touchdown.

The 69 yards were Kamara's season high, and he still averages only 10 touches per game.

That leaves Kamara as a touchdown-dependent RB3/FLEX with some reception appeal.

The Steelers have done well the past two weeks, limiting both Jonathan Taylor (82 total yards) and Bucky Irving (49 total yards).

They allow 3.9 YPC to backs (14th), but they rank 25th in receiving points allowed to RBs (9.2 per game).

Steelers vs. Saints Fantasy Wide Receiver Preview

Chris Olave

Olave caught 4 of 7 targets for 43 yards and a touchdown on Sunday, his second of the season.

With the Saints' volume reduced and passing yardage limited over the past two weeks, we've seen where this offense's floor could be outside of jailbreak game environments.

Olave's floor is still solid if that is the case.

Olave is the WR17 in expected points over the past two weeks, down from WR5 in usage in the opening four weeks.

Those game environments can flip at any point for the Saints, since we are not counting on them to run the ball strongly here.

Olave still has 25% and 23.3% of targets over the past two weeks, so he still has WR1 upside if team passing volume spikes again.

There are positive notes for upside here.

The Steelers are playing Cover 3 41.4% of the time (8th) and Cover 4 22.2% (4th) as their primary defensive looks.

Olave has a 28.6% target share against Cover 3 (2.94 yards per route) and a 37% target share against Cover 4 (3.33 yards per route).

The Steelers are allowing 8.3 yards per target to WR1s (11th).

DK Metcalf

Metcalf saw a season-high 15 targets on Sunday, catching 11 passes for 93 yards.

Metcalf finally got a break from facing a front-end shutdown boundary cornerback, and his 34.1% target share was a season high, accounting for a team-high 64.8% of air yards.

He has another good spot to keep things rolling as an upside WR2.

The Saints are 28th in points allowed to opposing WR1 targets (20.1 per game), allowing 9.8 yards per target (25th) and a 7.3% touchdown rate (27th) to lead wideouts.

As noted, the Saints haven't played much man coverage, while many of Pittsburgh's opponents dial it up at a higher rate.

If they do stick with their base approach, New Orleans is playing single-high coverages at the third-highest rate (64.2%).

Metcalf has a team-high 31.7% of the targets against those looks the past two weeks as the receiver room has turned over.

Germie Bernard

Bernard grabbed 11 of 12 targets for 87 yards and his first NFL touchdown on Sunday.

Bernard now has 21 targets over the past two games since being thrust into a larger role in the offense due to injuries to Michael Pittman and Roman Wilson.

He has averaged only 3.6 air yards per target over the past two weeks, but Bernard has a full-time role in a pass-heavy offense and has earned Aaron Rodgers‘ immediate trust.

Bernard has run a route on 93.9% and 100% of the dropbacks in the past two games, with target shares of 30% and 27.3%.

With the Steelers throwing so much, Bernard is a floor-based WR3 in full-PPR formats with added upside should his air yards climb.

Bernard has played 56% and 62% of his snaps in the slot the past two weeks.

The Saints are 18th in points allowed to slot receivers (11.8), allowing 8.8 yards per target (21st) and a 5.7% touchdown rate (19th) to those receivers.

Devaughn Vele

Catching 3 of 6 targets for 42 yards, Vele has finished WR45 or lower in three of his past four games.

His only two weeks as a WR2 or better came with touchdowns, leaving him as a WR4/FLEX.

Pittsburgh has limited slot receivers (Vele moves inside for a team-high 48% of snaps) to 5.6 yards per target (4th) without a touchdown.

Pittsburgh has allowed 7.8 yards per target (11th) and a 3.7% touchdown rate (13th) to outside receivers.

Steelers vs. Saints Fantasy Tight End Preview

Steelers TEs

Pat Freiermuth caught 2 of 3 targets for 11 yards on Sunday, while Darnell Washington caught 4 of 6 for 25 yards and a touchdown.

Pittsburgh tight ends have combined for three TE1 scoring weeks, but each one has included one of these guys scoring a touchdown.

That leaves them both as touchdown-dependent TE2 options.

Washington has a team-high 5 end-zone targets if chasing him.

Freiermuth continued to serve as the de facto WR3 last week due to wide receiver injuries.

He ran a route on 73.1% of dropbacks (3rd on the team), playing 46.3% of his snaps in the slot and 18.5% out wide.

The Saints have allowed 7.0 receptions per game to tight ends (28th) and to all types of archetypes.

They have faced Sam LaPorta (5-48-0), Mark Andrews (6-49-0), Michael Mayer (3-32-1), Brock Bowers (10-116-1), and Isaiah Likely (6-99-1).

Juwan Johnson

Johnson caught no passes on Sunday, seeing 2 targets.

With the Saints leaning on the run, Johnson ran a route on 53.1% of dropbacks, a season low.

New Orleans has run the ball on only 26.1% of Johnson's snaps this season.

Noah Fant led the Saints in snaps (58.8%) because of the game script.

New Orleans has run the ball on 51.4% of Fant's snaps.

They have run the ball on 65.9% of Oscar Delp's snaps.

He isn't a fantasy add, but Delp has kept getting more snaps.

Delp has only 3 catches this season, but his snap share has been 13.2%, 18.9%, 32.4%, 37.8%, and 43.1% weekly.

With the Saints as dogs here, Johnson's role should spike, making him a fringe TE1.

Pittsburgh offers some matchup interest, with tight ends getting 8.0 yards per target (25th) and a 5.9% touchdown rate (17th).

The Steelers have allowed slot tight ends to catch 10 of 12 targets for 109 yards and a touchdown.

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