The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Falcons vs. Buccaneers Week 8 matchup.
Find a breakdown of every Week 8 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Atlanta | Rank | @ | Tampa Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 22.0 | Implied Total | 24.5 | ||
| 24.4 | 10 | Points/Gm | 23.1 | 17 |
| 24.7 | 20 | Points All./Gm | 21.6 | 14 |
| 60.4 | 22 | Plays/Gm | 62.4 | 14 |
| 66.4 | 28 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.0 | 8 |
| 5.6 | 12 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 25 |
| 5.2 | 12 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.0 | 8 |
| 48.7% | 6 | Rush% | 48.1% | 7 |
| 51.3% | 27 | Pass% | 52.0% | 26 |
| 34.8% | 2 | Opp. Rush % | 36.6% | 3 |
| 65.2% | 31 | Opp. Pass % | 63.4% | 30 |
- Tampa Bay is 2nd in EPA as a pass defense (26.9).
- The Bucs are last in EPA as a pass offense (-38.7).
- Tampa Bay has allowed a touchdown on 16.9% of opponent possessions, 5th in the league.
- The Falcons have a 46.2% success rate on offense since Michael Penix took over as the starter, 5th in the league.
- 49.3% of Tampa Bay's yardage has come through the run, the highest rate in the league.
- 41.5% of Atlanta's yardage has come from rushing, 4th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Michael Penix
Penix delivered his second straight QB1 scoring week on Sunday against San Francisco with a QB8 (20.4 points) finish.
Penix has thrown for 6.8 yards and 6.3 yards per pass attempt over the past two weeks, but he has 3 passing touchdowns in each game to elevate his fantasy production.
Penix had 3 passing touchdowns in his first three starts this year before the past two games.
While Penix has run hot in the touchdown department over the past two weeks, I still want to keep him as a QB2 in this matchup.
The Bucs have been tough to beat for fantasy production and passing efficiency.
Tampa Bay ranks seventh in passing points allowed per attempt (0.36), 11th in yards per attempt (6.7), and 6th in yards per completion (10.2).
The Bucs have limited Joe Burrow (QB19), Jordan Love (QB19), Dak Prescott (QB21), and Bryce Young (QB28) in their sample this season.
Deshaun Watson (QB12) has the highest-scoring week against them to keep the lights on, but we are not entering this matchup with ceiling expectations.
Penix should have to throw at least, as both teams' defenses should lead to a high rate of dropbacks.
Opponents are throwing 5.2% over pass rate expectations against Tampa Bay, fourth in the league.
The Bucs are one of those teams crowding the line of scrimmage and mixing up who comes on their blitzes.
21 different Bucs players have logged a pass-rush snap (for context, Minnesota has had 18).
The Bucs have had eight or more players in the box on 22.1% of pass plays (2nd to only Minnesota) while blitzing 40.4% of the time (5th).
They haven't matched Minnesota's top-down pressure rates, but they are creating havoc and impacting offenses.
The Bucs have 5 sacks in each of the past two games.
They don't have gaudy pressure rates, but they've gotten 14, 17, and 15 pressures in the past three weeks.
They have a 3.3% interception rate, fifth in the league.
Every starter outside of Watson has thrown an interception against the Bucs.
Quarterbacks have the fastest time to throw (2.61 seconds from the snap) against Tampa Bay and only average 6.4 air yards per attempt (6th lowest) because they are aware they need to get the ball out.
To his credit, Penix has been getting the ball out quickly in Kevin Stefanski‘s offense, which should remain static here.
Penix has thrown 50% of his passes within 2.5 seconds of the snap, fourth in the league.
His 2.48 seconds from the snap per throw is the league's fastest.
Baker Mayfield
Mayfield didn't have much to do in his first game back after injuring his thumb in Week 3.
In a blowout win in Carolina on Sunday, Mayfield was 7 of 11 for 64 yards and a touchdown.
We should see more passing volume here.
Opponents have thrown 5.3% more than expected against the Falcons, the third-highest rate in the league.
The Falcons face 43.7 dropbacks per game, the second-most in the NFL.
They have largely held up against that volume, allowing 6.7 yards per pass attempt (12th), 10.2 yards per completion (5th), and a 3.9% touchdown rate (11th).
However, the overall volume has led to counting stats.
The Falcons allow 271.4 passing yards per game (29th) and 16.3 passing points per game (26th).
Mayfield hasn't given us reason to buy into him being efficient, so he remains a volume-based QB2.
Mayfield has been the QB22 or lower in all four of his games this season.
Mayfield has completed 63.6% of his passes (20th) for 6.3 Y/A (24th) and a 2.8% touchdown rate (28th).
42.6% of his completions have resulted in a first down or touchdown, the league's lowest rate.
His 0.24 passing points per dropback rank 29th.
The Bucs have a 24.5-point team total, so I don't want to bury Mayfield too much.
His sample size is still relatively small given his missed time.
Mayfield was the QB11 (22.6 points) and QB14 (19.2 points) in two games against Jeff Ulbrich‘s defense last season.
Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson knows that defense well, coming over from Atlanta.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Fantasy Running Back Preview
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More Week 8 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Week 8 NFL Games | Time |
|---|---|
| Panthers @ Packers | Thursday Night Football |
| Ravens @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Buccaneers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Commanders | Sunday Night Football |
| Bears @ Seahawks | Monday Night Football |
