Steelers vs. Bengals Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 10

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Steelers vs. Bengals Week 10 matchup on Sunday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 10 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Steelers vs. Bengals Fantasy Quarterback Preview

Joe Burrow

Burrow continued his impressive stretch in Spain, completing 24 of 29 passes (82.8%) for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns, adding a rushing score.

Burrow has reeled off six straight top-10 scoring weeks with a top-three weekly score in four of his past five games.

He has thrown 16 touchdown passes over his past four games.

He has thrown for over 9.0 yards per pass attempt in three straight games.

The last time that a quarterback had three straight games with 3 or more touchdown passes while also posting 9.0 Y/A or higher was Patrick Mahomes in 2019.

Burrow has completed 70% or more of his passes in six straight games.

Burrow will look to stay hot as a front-end QB1 against a Pittsburgh defense that he faced in Week 3.

In that game, Burrow was the QB9 (22.6 points), completing 28 of 37 passes (75.7%) for 282 yards and 3 touchdowns.

That is the only QB1 scoring week that the Steelers have allowed and the only passer to throw multiple passing touchdowns against them.

Pittsburgh's best avenue for success in that game was when they played Cover 3, which they did 40% of the time.

On those snaps, Burrow was 9 for 15 (60%) for 76 yards (5.1 Y/A).

When the Steelers went to anything two-high in the first matchup, Burrow was 17 of 20 (85%) for 8.9 Y/A and 3 touchdowns.

Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers cooled down going into the bye, posting three straight QB2 weeks.

In Week 8 before the bye, he posted season lows in completion rate (52%) and passing yards (172) and failed to throw a touchdown for the second straight week.

After a pass-heavy approach to open the year, the Steelers have scaled back in recent weeks and leaned more on the run game.

They have thrown the ball below pass-rate expectations in each of the past two games, after opening the year with six straight weeks over.

They just faced New Orleans and Cleveland, two teams that have been crushed on the ground, so there is some sense to that approach, paired with Rodgers playing worse in those games.

I would think the Steelers want to slow this game down on the road, especially with how the Bengals are playing on offense.

When these teams played earlier in the season, Rodgers had an up-and-down game.

He ended the day great for fantasy purposes, throwing for a season-high 8.6 Y/A and 3 touchdowns.

Rodgers is one of only two QB1 scoring games the Bengals have allowed, and one of two quarterbacks to throw multiple touchdowns against them.

Rodgers opened that game on fire, completing 8 of 11 passes for 143 yards (13.0 Y/A) and 2 touchdowns in the first quarter.

He then went 11 for 23 (47.8%) for 149 yards (6.5 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception the rest of the way.

The Bengals ramped up their aggression as that game went on, playing man coverage on 64.7% of the snaps in the second half and blitzing 33.3% of the time.

In the first half, they had a 36.4% man coverage rate and only blitzed 9.5% of the time.

Rodgers sees the most man coverage in the league (41.2%) and completes only 51.2% of his passes (26th) for 6.2 Y/A (21st) on those snaps.

When blitzed, he is completing 60% of his passes (18th) for 5.4 Y/A (27th).

Without a blitz and against zone coverage, Rodgers has completed 71.4% of his passes (9th) for 7.5 Y/A (17th).

That is the story here.

The Bengals also need to get home to be effective.

When they get pressure, the Bengals have allowed a 40% completion rate (3rd) and 4.4 Y/A (2nd).

Without pressure, they allow a 73.6% completion rate (24th) and 8.5 Y/A (30th).

Rodgers has not been great on the road so far this season, completing 61.4% of his passes (24th) for 6.0 Y/A (27th).

Those are combustible elements that keep Rodgers in more of the QB2 range, but the path for upside and volume is still present since the Bengals are playing so well on offense and can push the Steelers.

Pittsburgh has scored 30, 34, and 31 points in this matchup over the past two seasons.

Steelers vs. Bengals Fantasy Running Back Preview

Jaylen Warren

Warren has been awesome this season as the lead back.

He leads all running backs with 100-plus opportunities in yards per touch (6.9).

He has the highest rate of runs gaining more yards than expected per Next Gen Stats (53%).

Warren has posted over 100 yards from scrimmage in five of his past six games, going for 137 and 143 yards in the two games before the bye against the Saints and Browns.

The Steelers finally let Warren have a goal-line rush before the bye (which he converted), but it came on the third trip near the end zone.

Rico Dowdle scored the first rushing touchdown, and the Steelers scored their second goal-line touchdown on a Tush Push by Pat Freiermuth.

It was Warren's first goal-line touchdown since Week 14 of last season.

Warren has stayed strong since Dowdle returned, but he has handled 61.5%, 58.3%, and 54.6% of the backfield touches in those games, so he must remain efficient as an RB1.

As a road dog, there is volatility here, but if the Steelers can stick with the run, they can be successful.

When these teams played in Week 3, Warren had a career day.

He set career marks in snaps (90.3%), handling 20 touches for a career-high 176 total yards.

His day could have been even larger, too.

Warren had an 85-yard run called back for holding on DK Metcalf.

On that same drive, Warren then had a walk-in 32-yard touchdown, but he lost a wheel stepping on soft dirt and stumbled down at the 6-yard line.

Warren had the entire backfield to himself that day, but the way the Bengals play run defense set him up.

The Bengals play sub packages on 72% of running back runs (3rd in the league).

On those plays, they are allowing 4.7 YPC (23rd).

Against sub-package defenses, Warren has rushed 87 times this season for 524 yards (6.0 YPC), third in the league.

In that first matchup, he ran 11 times for 74 yards (6.7 YPC) against Cincinnati's sub-packages.

Warren has rushed 35 times for 256 yards (7.3 YPC) against light boxes this season.

Chase Brown

Brown had 12 touches for 75 yards against the Falcons in Spain.

He had his best rushing efficiency of the season (6.3 YPC), but only 9 attempts since this offense is running through Burrow and the receivers.

The Bengals have thrown the ball more than expected at the highest rate in the league.

Brown has not run the ball more than 13 times in a game since Week 2.

Brown has yet to log an RB1 scoring week this season.

Eventually, he is going to get some scoring opportunities with the way this offense is putting up points, but this is another tough spot to go to Brown as more than an RB2.

When these teams played in Week 3, Brown had 15 touches for 69 yards.

The Steelers are fourth in rushing points allowed per game to backfields (9.3).

Brown only caught two passes in the first matchup, but that is his best way in to create points here.

The Steelers are 29th in receiving points allowed to backs (11.2 per game).

Running backs have 25.3% of the receptions against them this season, third in the league.

Rico Dowdle

Dowdle has double-digit touches in all three games since returning to the lineup, posting a top-30 scoring week in each.

He is playing on 38.9% of snaps and getting 42.1% of the backfield touches, giving him some RB3/FLEX appeal.

The Pittsburgh offense is far better at running the ball than earlier in the season, but as a road underdog, there is some fragility to chasing upside for Dowdle versus Warren.

Steelers vs. Bengals Fantasy Wide Receiver Preview

Ja'Marr Chase

With how Burrow is playing, Chase has found another level.

Chase has put up back-to-back huge outings of 11-141-1 (16 targets) and 10-155-1 (12 targets).

He has had his two largest target shares of the season these past two weeks, at 34% and 42.9%.

He has reached the end zone in four straight games and in six of his past seven.

Keep firing up Chase as a front-end WR1.

His previous high in target share came in the Week 3 matchup between these teams (32.4%).

In that game, Chase caught 9 of 12 targets for 98 yards and a touchdown.

Chase has scored 6 times in six career games against the Steelers with Burrow as his quarterback, averaging 7.0 catches for 85.5 yards per game.

Tee Higgins

Higgins caught 5 of 6 targets for only 32 yards in Spain, but he caught 2 more touchdowns, giving him 5 over the past three games.

Higgins has posted five WR1 scoring weeks over his past six games.

With Burrow playing at this level, Higgins is also a WR1.

The Bengals have a tight target tree, getting the ball to Chase or Higgins on 48.5% of their passes.

Burrow is seeing a large shift in single-high coverage this season at 52% of his snaps, the highest rate since his rookie season.

Higgins has taken full advantage of that, posting 3.13 yards per route run with 4 touchdowns against those looks.

Those are the coverages Pittsburgh had the most success against in the first matchup, so we could see them pivot to more of that in the rematch.

Higgins caught 6 of 7 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown in that game.

DK Metcalf

Metcalf comes out of the bye with career lows in catch rate (51.6%) and yards per catch (11.5).

He has 40 or fewer yards in five of his eight games with 1 touchdown.

He has two weeks higher than WR35 on the season.

On the positive end, he is out there.

Metcalf has run a route on 99.4% of dropbacks, leading all wide receivers.

The downer for keeping him as fantasy WR3 here is that the Bengals have been sturdy against lead wideouts and have defended the perimeter and downfield as well as anyone.

The Bengals are eighth in points allowed to opposing WR1 targets (12.4 per game).

Cincinnati ranks second in points allowed to outside receivers, where Metcalf plays 86.8% of his snaps.

They have allowed a league-low 6.5 yards per target and a 2.5% touchdown rate (5th) to those receivers.

Against throws 20-plus yards downfield to receivers, the Bengals have allowed a 22.7% catch rate (5 of 22), second in the league.

In three games against the Bengals with the Steelers, Metcalf has games of 3-31-1 (5 targets), 5-49-0 (8 targets), and 3-50-0 (5 targets).

Germie Bernard

Early word suggests we are still at least one more week away from Michael Pittman being ready to return.

That gives Bernard more runway as a full-time player, and he has a great matchup on Sunday night.

Bernard is playing 51.5% of his snaps in the slot.

From the slot, he has been targeted on 21% of his routes for 1.76 yards per route run.

Outside, he has been targeted on 18.9% of his routes for 0.97 yards per route.

The only nitpick, and what keeps Bernard more of a floor-based WR3 with matchup upside, is that he averages only 4.8 air yards per target.

21.4% of his targets are screens.

As a result, 61.6% of his yards are after the catch.

But the Bengals are an interior pass funnel.

43.2% of the throws against the Bengals are between the numbers, the highest rate in the league.

As a byproduct, slot receivers give them more issues.

They have allowed 10.6 yards per target (26th) and a league-high 11.8% touchdown rate to slot receivers.

Steelers vs. Bengals Fantasy Tight End Preview

Darnell Washington

Washington has gotten into the box score in recent weeks.

He is coming off 3 catches for 94 yards in Week 8.

He has gotten into the end zone in three of his past five games.

Washington leads the Steelers with 6 end-zone targets.

His 37.5% share of end-zone targets leads all tight ends.

Washington has a low floor and still is more of a single-game DFS play, but he has some appeal here.

Washington has been more active in this matchup.

He has run a route on 60.6% and 58.3% of dropbacks in the past two meetings, with games of 3-67-0 (4 targets) and 4-67-0 (5 targets).

Those are not lofty rates, but they are two of his top-five route rates going back to last season.

The Bengals are vulnerable in the middle of the field, which carries over to tight end production.

Tight ends have 30.5% of the receptions against the Bengals (6th highest), and the Bengals allow 8.8 yards per target (31st).

Pat Freiermuth

Freiermuth has 2 or fewer catches in five of his past six games.

His only TE1 scoring weeks this season have come with touchdowns, leaving him as a touchdown-dependent TE2.

He still runs into the same matchup appeal noted above, going hot and cold in meetings between these teams.

In the three games with Rodgers, Freiermuth has games of 2-30-0 (4 targets), 1-19-0 (1 target), and 5-111-2 (6 targets) against the Bengals.

Mike Gesicki

Gesicki caught 2 passes for 11 yards on Sunday, snapping a five-game scoring streak.

Gesicki is averaging 2.4 receptions per game with a 9% target share, so he is still touchdown-dependent.

He has gotten a little more work in recent weeks, running a route on 73.6% and 68.8% of the dropbacks in the past two games, giving him more chances to get opportunities.

Gesicki caught 3 passes for 37 yards and a touchdown in the first matchup against the Steelers.

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