Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State, Current Betting Odds:
- Oklahoma State -3.5 points
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Texas Tech at Oklahoma State Best Bet Prediction:
- Oklahoma State -3.5 points
This is going to be a wild shootout, so let's trust the home team with the better passing attack and take Oklahoma State against the spread.
Texas Tech's Key Matchup on Offense
Former Boston College and Florida State quarterback Thomas Castellanos took over the Texas Tech offense two games ago, and coordinator Mack Leftwich immediately shifted the offense to suit his new quarterback's skill set.
Over the last two weeks, Castellanos has carried the ball on 29 designed runs for 187 yards.
Will Hammond had just 13 designed runs for 73 yards in six games against FBS opponents before getting benched.
Castellanos' athleticism has also allowed the Red Raiders to dabble in the read-option attack, running it 15 times for an impressive 172 yards over the last two weeks.
This could be the key to taking apart Oklahoma State's inconsistent defense, as the Cowboys are allowing 6.5 yards per play against the read-option, ranked 113th.
Just two weeks ago, Iowa State rode its read-option attack to a 51-49 upset of the Cowboys.
The Cyclones ran for 176 yards and 3 touchdowns on read-option plays in that game, averaging 12.6 yards per carry.
The athleticism of Houston's Conner Weigman and West Virginia's Michael Hawkins Jr. also created issues for the Cowboys' defense.
In those three games (Iowa State, Houston and West Virginia), Oklahoma State allowed 247 rushing yards to quarterbacks on 44 carries (excluding sacks), giving up at least 50 yards on the ground to each starting quarterback.
So despite the early-season offensive struggles, it looks like this version of the Red Raiders offense can keep pace with the Cowboys in a shootout.
Oklahoma State's Key Matchup on Offense
Oklahoma State's offense is run by head coach Eric Morris, a former wide receiver under Mike Leach at Texas Tech.
As you might expect, Morris' offense has Air Raid roots, but he's evolved the scheme to attack more aggressively downfield than Leach ever did during his career.
Outside the red zone, 24% of Oklahoma State's pass attempts have been at least 15 yards downfield, just above the FBS average (23%), according to Sports Info Solutions.
Check out how each of these teams has performed on throws at that depth:
- Oklahoma State: 50% completion rate, ranked 17th
- Texas Tech: 53% completion rate allowed, ranked 124th
It's also worth pointing out that number is not inflated by a small sample size for Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders have allowed the ninth-most total receptions on throws of 15 or more yards.
Texas Tech will try to disrupt the Cowboys' passing attack with its pass rush, where it holds a clear advantage based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Oklahoma State: ranked 94th in pressure rate allowed
- Texas Tech: ranked 20th in pressure rate generated
However, Drew Mestemaker has handled pressure as well as any quarterback in the country.
Only 6.4% of Mestemaker's dropbacks versus pressure have resulted in sacks, the nation's fifth-lowest rate.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech ranks 83rd in sack conversion rate, turning just 18% of pressures into sacks.
So while Texas Tech might get some pressure on Mestemaker, expect him to remain effective and continue to attack the Red Raiders' secondary.
Final Thoughts on Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Best Bets
In a likely shootout, let's trust the better passing attack and take Oklahoma State against the spread.
If this game comes down to the wire, I trust Mestemaker's ability to make plays through the air far more than Castellanos.
Additionally, the Red Raiders' inability to score in the red zone could be a factor in a back-and-forth type of game.
Texas Tech ranks 117th in red-zone touchdown rate this year and ranked 98th in 2025.
Field goals are not going to win this game, which likely gives Oklahoma State a significant edge.
