USC vs. Indiana, Current Betting Odds:
- Indiana -8.5 points
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USC vs. Indiana Best Bet Prediction:
- Under 50.5 points
It's hard to trust either offense given how Indiana has looked in recent weeks and Lincoln Riley‘s track record on the road in the Big Ten, so let's play the under at 50.5 points.
USC's Key Matchup on Offense
USC has struggled against the most physical teams in the Big Ten, and its upset win against Ohio State did nothing to shake that reputation.
Ohio State's run defense and pass rush have taken a step back this season, but Indiana remains one of the nation's most physical teams and compares favorably with Wisconsin, which shut down the Trojans in Madison a few weeks ago.
Take a look at these opponent-adjusted numbers on the run game matchup, via Sports Info Solutions:
- USC: ranked 62nd in yards before contact
- Indiana: ranked 4th in yards before contact allowed
- USC: ranked 76th in yards after contact
- Indiana: ranked 15th in yards after contact allowed
Now let's look at the same numbers for Wisconsin's defense:
- Ranked 13th in yards before contact allowed
- Ranked 2nd in yards after contact allowed
USC running backs managed just 39 yards on 20 carries in that game against the Badgers, and a similar performance against Indiana is possible.
Indiana's defense simply doesn't make mistakes against the run.
The Hoosiers allow 3 or more yards before contact on just 19% of carries by running backs, the nation's eighth-lowest rate.
Indiana also ranks 25th in broken/missed tackle rate against the run.
Although Lincoln Riley is known for his passing attack, his play-calling is more balanced than his reputation, and the offense doesn't click without an effective run game.
Indiana's Key Matchup on Offense
Indiana has always run a relatively conservative offense under coordinator Mike Shanahan, but it has become one of the most run-heavy schemes in the sport in recent weeks.
An injury to quarterback Josh Hoover could be the reason for the shift in philosophy, though Hoover remains off the injury report and is fully expected to be available against USC despite getting benched in the Hoosiers' last game against Minnesota.
Let's take a look at some opponent-adjusted numbers on the run game matchup via Sports Info Solutions:
- Indiana: ranked 36th in yards before contact
- USC: ranked 43rd in yards before contact allowed
- Indiana: ranked 21st in yards after contact
- USC: ranked 53rd in yards after contact allowed
Indiana appears to have a slight edge, but the Hoosiers will be without starting running back Turbo Richard, who was injured against Minnesota.
Lee Beebe Jr. has been an effective backup, but there has been a clear drop-off when he's on the field, as evidenced by these numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
Yds/Att Yds After Contact/Att Yds/Att Between the Tackles Yds/Att vs Stacked Box Richard 6.2 4.5 6.2 6.6 Beebe Jr. 5.1 2.8 4.9 4.8
The dropoff in production between the tackles is especially significant given Indiana's scheme.
Hoosiers running backs have carried the ball into a stacked box on 68% of their attempts, the nation's 14th-highest rate.
USC's defense only ranks 63rd in yards per attempt allowed between the tackles, but it will be easier to defend Indiana if Shanahan continues to demonstrate a lack of trust in his quarterbacks.
Over their last three games, Indiana running backs are averaging just 3.9 yards per attempt between the tackles 一 probably because a handoff between the tackles has accounted for 29% of their offensive plays in those games.
Even a mediocre USC run defense should be able to contain an offense as predictable as what we've seen from Indiana lately.
Final Thoughts on Indiana vs. USC Best Bets
There's reason to doubt both offenses in this matchup, so let's play the under at 50.5 points.
It's also worth noting that both offenses have struggled in the red zone this year, with each team ranking outside the top 50 in red zone touchdown rate.
Expect plenty of punts and field goals in what should be a close, low-scoring game.
