NFL Referee Assignment for Week 6, Impact on NFL Betting

We tend to focus only on NFL referees after a controversial decision or a bad no-call.

Yet, each head NFL referee and his respective crew interprets the game differently.

Understanding how a game will be officiated can be immensely valuable in the betting market.

A referee who calls more penalties for defensive holding and roughing the passer affects game flow very differently than a ref who focuses more on offensive holding and false starts.

One week, a referee's style may hide a team's weakness (defensive backs), but a different official who leans heavily on calling pass interference can compound that weakness the next week.

Same team. Different outcomes.

Throughout the 2026 NFL season, we'll help you identify important trends and tendencies by different NFL referees to give you an edge when placing a bet.

NFL Referee Assignments for Week 6

NFL Week 6 Referee Betting Impact

Carl Cheffers' Impact on Ravens at Browns

Browns head coach Todd Monken squares off against his former team on Sunday, adding intrigue to this bitter-rivalry matchup. Lamar Jackson‘s status looms large, with the winner of this contest taking the outright lead in the AFC North.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Carl Cheffers will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• Through five weeks of the 2026 season, Cleveland and Baltimore are top-five penalized teams, ranking first and fifth, respectively, in penalty-per-game average. While they have managed to win despite that, it's not a sustainable strategy moving forward.
• The Browns and Ravens rank among the top-10 penalized teams for pre-snap infractions, first and seventh, respectively.
• The Browns rank second for offensive holding penalties per game, while the Ravens sit just outside the top 10 in this category.
• The Ravens are a top-five penalized offense on first-down plays, primarily via false start and offensive holding calls.
• Something has to give on Sunday, because Cheffers' crew is currently calling the fewest offensive holding penalties per game in 2026.

The Bottom Line:

• Divisional home teams are 35-22-1 ATS (62%) with Cheffers over the past decade, including a 1-0 ATS record in 2026 with the Giants defeating the Cowboys outright in Week 1 as 3-point home underdogs.

After a three-game win streak, the Browns came crashing back to earth at the Jets last week.

Both teams have injury concerns at key positions for this game, most notably Baltimore's Lamar Jackson.

Regardless of Lamar's status, Baltimore has the talent edge to squeeze out a win, but it's still a divisional road game.

The Dawg Pound provides one of the league's best home-field advantages, and Cleveland can keep the game competitive, making the underdog Browns the selection in a grind-it-out divisional matchup.

» Bet the Browns +5.5

Craig Wrolstad's Impact Cowboys at Packers

After an uneven start to the season for both teams, urgency is at a peak for the Cowboys and Packers in this seemingly annual matchup between two of the NFL's most storied franchises.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Craig Wrolstad will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• The Packers have the largest road versus home penalty discrepancy in the NFL. Green Bay ranks as the No. 1 most-penalized road team, but co-ranks (with the 49ers) as the least-penalized home team.
• The Cowboys and Packers defenses rank among the top five in surrendering automatic first downs via penalty.
• The Cowboys offense is the No. 1 beneficiary of automatic first downs via penalty.
• Dallas' and Green Bay's offenses are top 10 beneficiaries of defensive pass interference penalties, ranking first and seventh, respectively.
• The Wrolstad crew currently ranks No. 1 in calling defensive pass interference penalties in 2026.
• Wrolstad's crew ranks fifth in offensive holding penalties per game.
• The Packers and Cowboys are among the top three penalized teams in the fourth quarter of games through five weeks of the season. Something has to give on Sunday night, because the Wrolstad crew is currently assessing the fewest penalties of any crew in the fourth quarter of games.

The Bottom Line:

• The Cowboys are 8-2 with Wrolstad in the Dak Prescott era. That represents their best record with any official over a 10-game sample since 2017.
• The Packers are 7-0 on the moneyline and 7-0 ATS with Wrolstad in the Matt LaFleur era. All time, Green Bay are 9-2 with Wrolstad officiating.
• At Lambeau Field, the Packers are 5-0 on the moneyline and 5-0 ATS when Wrolstad is in charge.
• Wrolstad is 4-0 over the total in 2026, with his contests averaging 53 pts per game.

The Packers come in riding high off a dominant win versus Chicago, while everyone is down on the Cowboys after their embarrassing loss to the Bucs.

The reality is that both teams' true ability lies somewhere in the middle of their most recent performances.

Dallas' defensive concerns are real, and the Packers have issues of their own on that side of the ball.

Offensively, both teams possess an embarrassment of riches in their receiving corps, which sets the stage for another epic tilt in the 2026 chapter of this rivalry.

All signs point to another shootout, with the “Lambeau Mystique” ultimately tipping the scales in favor of the home team, making the Green Bay Packers the selection on Sunday Night Football.

» Bet the Packers -1

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2026 NFL Referees Stats & Their Historical Betting Trends

A comprehensive breakdown for every NFL Referee working games for the 2026 season, plus a deeper look at their penalty-calling historical trends, statistics, and how it may impact betting opportunities, plus the pace of gameplay.

Adrian Hill: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams are 57-55 ATS in true home games with Hill officiating.
• Hill is 62-50-1 to the under in his career.
• In divisional games, Hill is 19-12-1 to the under in his career.

Alan Eck: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams are 33-16 on the money line and 28-21 ATS in Eck's head referee career.
• Eck was 11-6 to the over in the 2025 season.

Alex Kemp: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams are 65-67-2 ATS in Kemp's career.
• Divisional home teams are 19-22 on the money line and 17-24 ATS in Kemp's career.
• Totals in Kemp's career divisional games sit at .500 with a 20-20-1 record.

Alex Moore: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams were 10-6 on the money line and 10-6 ATS with Moore in 2025, his first season as a head referee.

Bill Vinovich: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• True home teams are 57-73-4 ATS with Vinovich since 2018, including a 7-10 ATS record in 2025.
• Vinovich is 73-59-3 to the under since 2018, although he went 11-6 over in 2025.

Brad Allen: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams are 83-59-1 on the money line with Allen since 2016.
• Home teams are 73-67-3 ATS in those Allen-officiated games since 2016.
• Allen is 83-60-1 to the under since 2016.

Brad Rogers: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• True home teams are 53-54 on the money line and 54-53 ATS in Rogers' career.
• Rogers is 58-50 over the total in his career.
• Rogers is 22-20 over in career divisional games.

Carl Cheffers: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams are 101-64 on the money line since 2016 with Cheffers officiating.
• Home teams are 87-75-3 ATS with Cheffers since the start of the 2016 NFL season.
• Divisional home teams are 33-22-1 ATS with Cheffers since 2016.

Clay Martin: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Martin is 64-61-3 under in his career.
• True home teams in Martin's career are 64-61 on the money line and 55-67-3 ATS.
• Divisional home teams are 21-27 on the money line & 17-31 ATS in Martin-officiated contests.

Clete Blakeman: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams are 77-84-3 ATS with Blakeman since the start of 2016.
• Divisional home teams are 31-28 on the money line since 2016 in Blakeman-officiated contests.
• Blakeman is 30-29 over the total in divisional games since 2016, including a 4-2 under mark in 2025.

Craig Wrolstad: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams are 81-80 on the money line and 67-91-3 ATS since 2016 in Wrolstad-officiated games.
• Home underdogs are 26-45-2 ATS with Wrolstad since 2016, including 5-4 ATS in 2025.

John Hussey: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams are 113-51 on the money line with Hussey since 2016.
• Home teams are 98-61-5 ATS with Hussey since 2016.
• Home teams were 11-6 on the money line and 9-8 ATS with Hussey in 2025.

Land Clark: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams are 38-55-2 ATS in Clark's career.
• Clark is 50-45-1 under the total in his career, although Clark was 10-6 over in 2025.

Ron Torbert: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Torbert-officiated games are 75-60-1 under the total since 2018.
• True home teams are 58-73-1 ATS in Torbert-officiated contests since 2018.

Scott Novak: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams are 44-64-3 ATS in Novak's career, the lowest ATS percentage of any referee since his debut in 2019.
• Divisional home teams are 13-22-1 ATS in Novak's career.

Shawn Hochuli: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• True home teams are 58-68-4 ATS in Hochuli's career, including a 7-10 ATS record in 2025.
• Hochuli is 74-55-2 under the total in his career.
• In divisional games, Hochuli is 31-16-1 under the total in his career.

Shawn Smith: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• True home teams are 61-62-5 ATS in Smith's career.
• Smith officiated contests sit at .500 on totals, with a 65-65-1 record in his career, including a 9-8 under record in 2025.