NFL Referee Assignment for Week 8, Impact on NFL Betting

We tend to only focus on NFL referees after a controversial decision or a bad no-call.

Yet, each head NFL referee and his respective crew interprets the game differently.

Gaining insight into the way a game will be officiated can have immense value in the betting market.

A referee who calls more penalties for defensive holding and roughing the passer has a far different impact on game flow than a ref who focuses more on offensive holding and false starts.

Referee style one week may hide a team's weakness (defensive backs), but a different official who leans heavily on calling pass interference will compound that weakness the next week.

Same team. Different outcomes.

Throughout this 2025 NFL season, we'll help to identify important trends and tendencies by different NFL referees to help you gain an edge when placing a bet.

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NFL Referee Assignments for Week 8

Carl Cheffers’ Impact on Cowboys at Broncos

The high-flying Cowboys visit the Mile High City on Sunday, facing a Broncos team coming off one of the most remarkable comebacks in NFL history. It's a pivotal game for both teams at the midway point of the season, with a crew predisposed to calling penalties in key categories in charge of proceedings.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Carl Cheffers will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• The Cowboys, Broncos, and Cheffers’ crew all rank in the top five for offensive holding penalties per game average. It's a simplistic analysis, but whatever team can navigate the offensive holding minefield with Cheffers has a major advantage on Sunday.
• Continuing on the above point, the all-important false start/offensive holding combination accounts for an above average 41.5% of Cheffers’ overall penalties in 2025.
• The Cheffers crew ranks third for defensive holding and fourth for defensive pass interference penalties per game.
• Denver ranks No. 1 for defensive pass interference penalties. The combination of that infraction and defensive holding accounts for 21.5% of the Broncos' overall penalties this season, significantly higher than the league average of 13.7% in these categories.
• The defensive penalties detailed above contributed to the Broncos ranking No. 1 in surrendering automatic first downs via penalty. Surrendering these penalties isn't necessarily a bad thing if enacted on early downs. Denver has enacted that strategy extremely well, surrendering only 21.5% of these first downs on third down plays, below the NFL average of 30.5% in this category.
• The Cowboys are a top-three beneficiary of automatic first downs via penalty. The big driver is via defensive pass interference, a category that Dallas ranks as a top-three beneficiary. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens rank as the No. 1 WR duo in this category, despite Lamb missing multiple games.
• Third downs account for 22% of overall penalties assessed through six weeks of the NFL season, and a key area in which “something has to give” in this matchup. The Cheffers crew currently leads the league, calling 29.5% of their overall penalties on the money down.
• By contrast, both the Cowboys and Broncos are below average penalized teams on third-down plays. The contrast between them and the Cheffers crew's willingness to throw flags on the key down will be pivotal in this matchup.

The Bottom Line:

• Cheffers has been one of the better home-field referees in the NFL, with home teams recording a 96-58 (62%) on the moneyline and 82-69-3 ATS (54%) mark since 2016. That includes a 5-1 moneyline and 5-1 ATS record in 2025.

On the surface, the Broncos' poor performance last week should have the high-flying Cowboys offense salivating in the lead-up to this game.

However, there were extenuating circumstances, with Denver’s sluggish play partially due to an overseas trip the week prior.

Back-to-back subpar performances seem unlikely.

Denver's elite pass defense will present a significantly more difficult challenge for Dak Prescott and company away from the fast home track at AT&T Stadium.

The variance from a penalty perspective is off the charts, given the issues detailed around the three entities involved in this contest.

Ultimately, Cheffers’ home-field edge may prove the difference.

That, combined with a Broncos team that should be significantly more prepared, adds up to the Denver Broncos -3.5 points being the selection in this contest.

Bet the Broncos -3.5

Shawn Hochuli’s Impact on Packers at Steelers

Sunday Night Football returns to Pittsburgh, with the Steelers and Aaron Rodgers facing off against the Packers in one of the most anticipated contests of the NFL regular season.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Shawn Hochuli will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• Hochuli has consistently ranked at or near the top of the league in recording the highest overall offensive penalty percentage. That hasn't been the case through seven weeks of 2025, with this crew hovering right around the league average of 47.2%. However, in their one primetime game this season (Week 5 Patriots at Bills), Hochuli’s crew reverted to their traditional approach, zeroing in on offensive penalties at a higher rate than normal.
• Hochuli ranks fourth in special teams penalties per game.
• The Steelers rank 31st in offensive penalties per game. Only the Detroit Lions are better in this category.
• The young Packers offense is often uneven and lacking focus. A byproduct of that is elevated penalties. The all-important false start/offensive holding combination accounts for 44% of the Packers' penalties versus just 25% for the Steelers.
• The Steelers aren't a prolific offense at generating beneficial automatic first downs via penalty. Conversely, the Packers have consistently been one of the better teams in this category in the Jordan Love era. There are times when a beneficial defensive pass interference call is the catalyst for an often sluggish Green Bay offense to kick into gear, and expect that to be the case on a couple of occasions versus the Steelers secondary.
• The Packers defense is a top-five penalized unit for defensive offsides and neutral zone infractions. Keep this in mind on SNF, as Rodgers has been a master of manipulating the count to draw beneficial penalties throughout his career.
• Hochuli ranks in the bottom tier of referees in calling both defensive pass interference and defensive holding penalties.
• Illegal contact penalties are on pace for a record-setting season, and the crew on SNF is leading the way, ranking No. 1 through seven weeks of the season. As it stands, neither the Packers nor the Steelers commit or benefit from many illegal contact calls. So it will be a case of “something has to give” in regards to this penalty on Sunday night.
• Hochuli leads the NFL in unnecessary roughness penalties per game. Traditionally, discipline-related infractions like unnecessary roughness are called at a higher rate in primetime contests, so both teams need to be mindful of that on SNF.
• Hochuli has ranked at or near the top for roughing the passer penalties over the past four seasons. He has scaled back slightly in 2025, ranking sixth in per game average, but that decline is being offset by elevated calls in the aforementioned unnecessary roughness category.
• The Steelers defense (and home crowd) have been the gold standard at generating offensive pre-snap and holding penalties on visiting teams over many seasons. That hasn't been the case in 2025 in their two home contests, but history suggests this advantage will kick in sooner rather than later, and SNF would be as good a time as any to begin.
• Hoculi’s crew ranks No. 1 for unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in 2025.

The Bottom Line:

• Hochuli is 69-50-2 (58%) under the total in his career. Hochuli officiated contests currently have the second-lowest average game total through seven weeks of the season at 43.4 points. Despite that low total average, Hochuli is still 4-3 to the under this season.
• Home teams have recorded a 46.5% ATS win rate in Hochuli’s career as a head referee.
• The Steelers are 6-3 on the moneyline and 6-3 ATS in Hochuli officiated games. Noteworthy is that Pittsburgh was the underdog in seven of those games and recorded an impressive 6-1 ATS record. However, only one of those seven games was played in Pittsburgh.

Outside of the Packers' opening week performance versus the Lions, it would be accurate to say neither of these teams has fully impressed in 2025.

Green Bay only shows flashes of their true potential. Their offense is too plodding more often than not, playing at a snail's pace and lacking urgency.

Conversely, the ceiling for Pittsburgh’s offense and overall team performance may be what we’ve witnessed through six games in 2025.

For this game specifically, the reality is that it is in the NFL’s best interest to have these marquee primetime games go down to the wire, so expect it to be officiated with that goal in mind.

Long term, this young Packers squad has the far greater upside, but with Pittsburgh coming off a loss and extra prep time, Mike Tomlin teams tend to overdeliver in these spots.

An added bonus would be  Rodgers turning back the hands of time for this one night versus the team he will forever be associated with, only increasing the chances of a victory for the home team.

Those factors add up, making the Pittsburgh Steelers +3 points the selection in a Sunday Night Football classic.

Bet the Steelers +3

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2025 NFL Referees Stats & Their Historical Betting Trends

A comprehensive breakdown for every NFL Referee working games for the 2024 season, plus a deeper look at their penalty-calling historical trends, statistics, and how it may impact betting opportunities, plus the pace of gameplay.

Adrian Hill: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 53-46 ATS in true home games with Adrian Hill officiating
• Adrian Hill is 52-45-1 under in his career
• In Divisional games, Hill is 16-11-1 Under in his career

Alex Kemp: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 57-58-2 ATS in Kemp's career
• Divisional home teams are 16-19 on the moneyline and 14-21 ATS in Alex Kemp’s career
• Kemp is 18-17 over the total in career Divisional games

Alan Eck: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 24-8 on the moneyline and 20-12 ATS in Eck’s two year head referee career
• Alan Eck was 9-6-1 Under in 2024

Bill Vinovich: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• True home teams are 50-63-4 ATS with Vinovich since 2018, including an 8-9 ATS record in 2024
• Bill Vinovich is 67-48-3 under since 2018, although he went 10-6-1 over in 2024

Brad Allen: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 74-53-1 on the moneyline with Brad Allen since 2016
• Home teams are 69-56-3 ATS in those Allen officiated games since 2016
• Brad Allen is 73-55 under since 2016

Brad Rogers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• True home teams are 44-47 on the moneyline and 44-47 ATS in Brad Rogers' career 
• Brad Rogers is 50-42 over the total in his career
• Brad Rogers is 20-15 over in career Divisional games

Carl Cheffers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 91-57 on the moneyline since 2016 with Carl Cheffers officiating
• Home teams are 77-68-3  ATS with Cheffers since the start of the 2016 NFL season
• Divisional home teams are 32-19 ATS with Carl Chaffers since 2016

Clay Martin: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Clay Martin is 54-41-3 under in his career
• True home teams in Clay Martin's career are 53-55 on the moneyline & 43-61-3 ATS  
• Divisional home teams are 17-23 on the moneyline & 13-27 ATS in Clay Martin officiated contests

Clete Blakeman: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 67-78-3 ATS with Blakeman since the start of 2016
• Divisional home teams are 27-26 on the moneyline since 2016
• Blakeman is 28-25 on divisional totals, including 5-2 over in 2024

Craig Wrolstad: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 70-73 on the moneyline and 57-83-3 ATS since 2016 in Craig Wrolstad officiated games
• Home underdogs are 22-40-2 ATS with Wrolstad since 2016, including a 2-4-1 ATS in 2024

John Hussey: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 102-46 on the moneyline with John Hussey since 2016
• Home teams are 89-53-5 ATS with John Hussey since 2016
• Home teams were 10-6 on the moneyline and 11-5 ATS with John Hussey in 2024

Land Clark: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 32-46-2 ATS in Land Clark’s career

• Clark is 44-35-1 under the total in his career, although Clark was 9-8 over in 2024

Scott Novak: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 37-55-3 ATS in Scott Novak's career, the lowest  ATS percentage of any referee since his debut in 2019
• Divisional home teams are 11-22-1 ATS in Scott Novak's career

Shawn Hochuli: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 51-58-4 ATS in Shawn Hochuli’s career, including an 8-7-1 ATS record in 2024
• Shawn Hochuli is 65-47-2 under the total in his career
• In Divisional games, Shawn Hochuli is 27-15-1 under the total in his career

Shawn Smith: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams were 10-7 on the moneyline and 11-5-1 ATS with Shawn Smith in 2024
• Home teams are 55-60-2 ATS in Shawn Smith's career
• Shawn Smith was 9-8 Over in 2024 but is 57-56-1 Under the total in his career