We are in the final countdown – just a week away from the 2021 NFL Draft! I have been tracking betting lines and will note any big line movement or if I see some value in a particular player or prop. If you want to see what I think a team needs or more description of a particular player you can find those aspects addressed in the previous iterations.
Pick #1 Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Previous Mock – Lawrence
This is still listed at -10000, still the biggest lock on the board.
Pick #2 New York Jets – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
Previous Mock – Wilson
The line has moved from -500 to -2000 last week to -5000 this week. Just as the odds imply, it’s the second biggest lock of the draft.
Pick #3 San Francisco 49ers – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Previous Mock – Jones
As they say, this is where the draft really begins. It certainly has been an interesting couple of weeks, not only in the media debating who this pick is going to be but also in the betting markets which has seen Jones as a -305 favorite as of my last mock, to Fields as high as a -150 favorite, now back to Jones as a -150 favorite at the time of this writing. There is a clear divide between scouts and reporters as to who they think this pick should/will be. As a mock drafter, I am trying my best to predict who it will be over who it should be, so I am going to still go with Jones here.
Pick #4 Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Previous Mock – Pitts
Atlanta will most likely be fielding calls for this pick if Jones is indeed the pick at No. 3 so this could and maybe should be a trade down, depending on the offers. If they stay put, the pick is Pitts. Pitts has seen his odds move from +150 to -121 to be the first non-QB selected since my last mock.
Pick #5 Cincinnati Bengals – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Previous Mock – Penei Sewell, OT
And I am flip-flopping once again back to Chase this week after reading the reports that we have on our Players News & Rumors page that the Bengals are targeting Chase and Joe Burrow has even asked management to do so. Chase is -125 to be drafted in the top five and nobody expects him to go within the top four picks.
Pick #6 Miami Dolphins – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Previous Mock – Ja’Marr Chase, WR
I’m not sure Miami envisioned the draft would play out this way when they made the trade, so there are rumors out there that they may actually trade back again. If they stay, they seem to want a difference-making wide receiver with their first pick over an offensive lineman as mentioned in our Players News & Rumors page. Waddle has been drawing Tyreek Hill comparisons and there are few WR’s in the league that fit that difference-making description more than Hill.
Wide receiver to be the first position selected by Miami is favored at -134 whereas offensive lineman is +400 so there is certainly value there if you think they will take Penei Sewell or Rashawn Slater.
TRADE Pick #7 New England Patriots – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Previous Mock – Fields
Bill Belichick has actually traded up in the first round four times in the Brady era, all while he didn’t have a need at the most important position on the field so the narrative that he never trades up isn’t exactly accurate. But more importantly, it just makes a ton of sense for both teams. Detroit has a lot of needs to fill and only six picks in this draft and the Patriots, after a very aggressive offseason, basically only have one and may not be in a position to draft this high again if they return to the type of seasons they envision for themselves. Fields has seen his odds to be drafted by the Patriots drop from +700 to +400 since my last mock.
Pick #8 Carolina Panthers – Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Previous Mock – Rashawn Slater, OT
With only one of the top five quarterbacks still on the board here, I am sure Carolina will field calls from a couple of teams looking to jump way up. If they don’t like the offers, then Carolina will feel content in standing pat and taking who many view as the best offensive lineman in the draft. Sewell has a draft position of 6.5 over +103 so a better bet would be to take offensive lineman first position selected by Carolina at +120 and that way you are covered whether it’s Sewell or Slater.
Pick #9 Denver Broncos – Trey Lance, QB North Dakota St.
Previous Mock – Lance
If Denver really prefers one of the two quarterbacks that are available after the third pick then they may need to actually move up to ensure one of them but in this scenario, they still get one of the top five available without having to move up. Denver to draft a quarterback first is favored at +115 and would most likely be a lock if they do indeed trade up.
Pick #10 Dallas Cowboys – Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
Previous Mock – Surtain
The streak of Surtain to the Cowboys continues as there are few better fits in the draft of talent and need. Surtain was the co-favorite with Micah Parsons to be the first defensive player taken at +150 at the time of my last mock but is now the clear-cut favorite at -125.
Pick #11 New York Giants – Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
Previous Mock – DeVonta Smith, WR
On our Twitter Space chat this week, we got a chance to ask New York Giants legend Carl Banks who he would like to see the Giants draft at No. 11 and one of the players he mentioned was Rashawn Slater. I had Slater being selected earlier than this in my past few mocks but the Giants should not let him slide past here even if they are tempted by DeVonta Smith. There is certainly some value in the offensive lineman first position picked by the Giants at +300.
Pick #12 Philadelphia Eagles – Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
Previous Mock – Jaylen Waddle, WR
There are rumors out there that the Eagles are looking to trade down again and pick up even more draft capital for the 2022 draft but with Horn still on the board, they stay put and address an obvious need. Horn under 13.5 has moved from -112 to -129 since my last mock but the Eagles selecting a cornerback with their first pick offers better odds at +175.
Pick #13 Los Angeles Chargers – Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
Previous Mock – Darrisaw
I’ve been consistent with this pick for a while now as I believe the Chargers have to address the offensive line and Darrisaw makes a lot of sense here. I am not the only one that feels that way as DraftKings has the Chargers taking an offensive lineman with their first selection favored at -110 and of the 28 teams that they have that prop listed for only four teams have a – money favorite.
Pick #14 Minnesota Vikings – Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
Previous Mock – Kwity Paye, DL
One of the other four teams happens to be the Vikings, who have offensive lineman selected with their first pick favored at -110 as well.
Pick #15 Detroit Lions – Micah Parsons, LB, Penn St.
Previous Mock – Parsons
As I alluded to earlier, the Lions have a lot of needs to fill so they take a versatile linebacker that, on talent alone, could’ve been a top-10 pick. However, since my last mock his over/under has moved from 11.5 to 13.5.
Pick #16 Arizona Cardinals – Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Previous Mock – Jaycee Horn, CB
No one is questioning the talent of DeVonta Smith but with him weighing in at just 166lbs some may question his durability at the next level. There are only 16 WR’s that have weighed in at less than 170lbs at the combine since 2000 so fair or not, there just isn’t a very big or successful sample size to draw from.
Pick #17 Las Vegas Raiders – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
Previous Mock – Teven Jenkins, OL
I have had Jenkins here for a few weeks now but JOK is a rare defensive playmaker that the Raiders have lacked during the Gruden/Mayock era. JOK has seen his odds to be the first linebacker selected drop from +700 to +500 since my last mock and still provides value as the margin between him and Parsons is not that wide.
Pick #18 Miami Dolphins – Kwity Paye, Edge, Michigan
Previous Mock – Jaelen Phillips, Edge
I’m going back to Paye here since I no longer have him going earlier to the Vikings and believe Brian Flores and his staff would prefer him to Phillips if both are still on the board. Paye is still the favorite to be the first defensive lineman selected and in fact, has seen his odds move from -110 to -200 since my last mock.
Pick #19 Washington Football Team – Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
Previous Mock – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB
Washington is a team that will probably be making that call to Carolina at No. 8 to see what the asking price is but ultimately stay put and draft a guy who has some buzz around his name and seems to be higher on big boards than mock drafts in Collins. As I’ve noted before, I think he has tremendous value at +1600 to be the first linebacker selected.
Pick #20 Chicago Bears – Tevin Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma St.
Previous Mock – Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL
Another team that should at least be making that cursory call to teams about trading up for a QB but consider themselves lucky to get one of the top five offensive linemen in the draft after staying put. Offensive line is the favorite position to be selected first by Chicago at +180.
Pick #21 Indianapolis Colts – Jaelan Phillps, Edge, Miami
Previous Mock – Gregory Rousseau, Edge
As I’ve said in previous mocks, I think the Colts address the offensive and defensive line with their first two picks and in this case go defense first with arguably the most talented pass rusher in the class falling to them. Phillips is +200 to be the first defensive lineman selected and will certainly be in the mix to go earlier if teams sign off on some of his medical concerns.
Pick #22 Tennessee Titans – Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Previous Mock – Farley
With news out that Farley will be ready to return for training camp, many still believe he goes in the first round. Farley, once listed at +200 on DraftKings to be the first CB selected, has seen his odds move down to +800 in my last mock to now down to +1400.
Pick #23 New York Jets – Azeez Ojulari, Edge/LB, Georgia
Previous Mock – Ojulari
New coach Robert Salah gets his wish and adds another pass rusher here to line up opposite new addition Carl Lawson. He is listed as a linebacker on DraftKings and linebacker is listed at +600 to be the second position selected in the draft by the New York Jets.
Pick #24 Pittsburgh Steelers – Alex Leatherwood, OL, Alabama
Previous Mock – Landon Dickerson, OL
I know the popular pick is Najee Harris but as Warren Sharp has illustrated, teams should not be taking a running back in the first round, especially a team like the Steelers who lost three starters along their offensive line from last year. Leatherwood is viewed by some as a tackle and some as a guard which is fine for the Steelers since they need both. More importantly, he has the experience to play on day one. I think offensive lineman to be selected first by Pittsburgh at +200 is one of the best values on the board.
Pick #25 Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevon Moehrig-Woodard, S, TCU
Previous Mock – Moehrig-Woodard
I am not changing the pick or what I wrote about it last mock. The odds have not changed at all since then, which is kind of amazing. I am strictly following the money here as DraftKings has the over/under for safeties drafted in the first round set at 0.5 but has the over at -250, which implies about a 71% probability. Then if you look at the odds for first safety selected, Moehrig-Woodard is the heavy favorite at -400 with the next closest at +400. Given the needs for the teams behind the Jaguars, I think they could wait and still get him at the top of Round 2, but as they say, money talks so I am slotting him here.
Pick #26 Cleveland Browns – Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern
Previous Mock – Oweh, Edge
The Browns signing of Jadeveon Clowney seemed to address the other side of their line opposite Myles Garrett, so they turn to who will line up opposite of former first-round pick Denzel Ward in the secondary. As noted by T.A. in his draft props value article, cornerback as the first position selected by Cleveland offers great value at +400.
Pick #27 Baltimore Ravens – Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
Previous Mock – Zaven Collins, LB
With the news of Terrace Marshall having some medical red flags pop up, that probably is enough to have Bateman pass him on most teams’ boards. Wide Receiver is the favorite to be the first position selected by Baltimore at +200.
Pick #28 New Orleans Saints – Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
Previous Mock – Greg Newsome II, CB
Moore could be another receiver that may jump Marshall on boards, as it seems after the top three there can be cases made for multiple WR’s to be the next one drafted. New Orleans is the only team that has three different positions favored to be the first selected by them at the same exact odds, so they certainly can take the best player available on their board. They could also be a perfect candidate to trade down if a team wants to jump back into the first round.
Pick #29 Green Bay Packers – Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
Previous Mock – Jamin Davis, LB
The run on WR’s continues while the run on the Packers never drafting a WR in the first round for Aaron Rodgers finally ends. Wide receiver is favored to be the first position selected by Green Bay at +200.
Pick #30 Buffalo Bills – Gregory Rousseau, DL, Miami
Previous Mock – Alex Leatherwood, OL
As I’ve highlighted in previous mocks, Rousseau has seen his draft stock drop after his pro day with teammate Jaelan Phillps. His odds to be the first defensive lineman drafted have not moved from +800 since my last mock but again, that is down from being considered one of the favorites about a month ago at +200.
Pick #31 Kansas City Chiefs – Sam Cosmi, OT, Texas
Previous Mock – Cosmi
Kansas City needs a day one starter and Cosmi, while he does need to work on his technique, is a three-year starter with experience at both left and right tackle. The longer the Chiefs wait to address offensive tackle in the draft, the more of a project it will be, so the earlier the better. Offensive lineman is favored to be their first position selected at +110.
Pick #32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Christian Barmore, DL, Alabama
Previous Mock – Etienne, RB
Barmore seems to be a polarizing prospect. Some expect him to go top 15ish, some expect him to drop into the second round with a questionable motor and some medical concerns. Tampa has the luxury to take a swing on a talented player and let him develop and hopefully become the eventual replacement for Ndamukong Suh. Even though they don’t have any pressing needs on the roster, defensive lineman is the solid favorite to be the first position selected by Tampa at +200.
