In a two-high world, we’re continually shifting how we talk about the value of safeties. Even now it’s hard to come to an exact definition of value in the modern game. The top of the safety market has increased but at the same time, more safeties are getting playing time. Some teams managed to find their best defensive packages with three safeties on the field last season.

To some, that suggests having a top tier safety might not be as valuable because the responsibilities are more evenly distributed. We’ll get a test case with how the league handles that with Kyle Hamilton this year and where he’s selected in the first round.

The rest of this draft class highlights what does stand out with the increased use of safeties around the league — everyone needs to be able to do a little bit of everything.

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While much of the NFL has adapted to the two-high pre-snap shell, the rate of two-high safeties has not kept up in actual coverages after the snap. Per Sports Info Solutions, 17 teams used a two-high shell pre-snap at least 50% of the time in 2021. Would you like to guess how many teams actually ran two-high coverages over 50% of the time? Zero.

So often, those two-high shells are shifting to Cover 1 or Cover 3 at the snap. Per TruMedia/PFF, Cover 3 was still the most popular coverage, played on 34.5% of snaps league-wide. Cover 1 was second at 22.5%.

Having two deep safeties might seem like the responsibilities are halved, but that’s not the case on the majority of snaps. Per SIS, the highest rate of two-deep coverages last season was 45% and just 15 teams were at 40% or higher.

That pre-snap look to post-snap rotation puts more emphasis on the safeties to both be able to pull off the rotation and be good at whatever is asked of them, so the rotation isn’t tipped off or wasted.

All of this brings us to this year’s safety class, filled with players who can do a little bit (or a lot) of everything. According to data from Grinding The Mocks, eight safeties currently have an Expected Draft Position inside the top-100. That would be a significant bump over last year (just two), but more in line — with previous seasons. There were at least nine safeties drafted in the top-100 in each draft from 2017 to 2020. Seven safeties were drafted in the top 100 in 2016 after just four in 2015.

For this, we’ll focus on those eight and what they bring to the field. Even while these safeties have the versatility to do a little bit of everything, that doesn’t mean they all fall into the same positional archetype.

We can see how these players might project to the NFL by how they lined up in college. Here are some alignment and usage metrics from the 2021 season, per the SIS Draft Guide.

Draft Safety Alignment, 2021
data provided by Sports Info Solutions, Expected Draft Position From Grinding The Mocks

PlayerSchoolEDPSlot %Box %Blitz %
Kyle HamiltonNotre Dame11.127%8%4%
Daxton HillMichigan29.272%11%7%
Lewis CineGeorgia36.114%8%2%
Jalen PitreBaylor51.276%20%17%
Jaquan BriskerPenn State53.815%30%2%
Nick CrossMaryland87.68%19%3%
Bryan CookCincinnati95.738%4%1%
Kerby JosephIllinois1005%17%2%

The Do-it-all Safety

Kyle Hamilton

Hamilton is regarded as the top safety in this class because he has the skills to serve just about any role needed. At 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, Hamilton is a rangy safety in what’s closer to a linebacker’s body. 

He’s been dinged for a slow unofficial 40-time at his pro day, but his official 4.58 at 220 pounds at the combine is more than enough to translate to the NFL. His explosion isn’t an issue, either. His broad jump was 93rd percentile and his vertical was 81st percentile.

What mostly stands out on film is his 94th percentile wingspan. Hamilton can find his way to the ball, whether he’s lined up in the slot, box, or deep. He got his hand on the ball on 1.9% of plays last season and averaged 1.1 pass breakups per game, both of which led this safety class. How he does that can even come in different varieties.

Here he recognized and broke up a pass down the sideline against Alabama in 2020:

 

 

Then against Cincinnati this past season, he blitzed while lined up in the slot and forced a pass defensed on the rush.

 

 

Someone Hamilton’s size might not seem made for the slot but when he’s lined up there he’s been effective. In 2021, he allowed just 0.07 targets per coverage snap (second-best among these seven) and just a 40% completion percentage.

Deep Safety

Lewis Cine, Kerby Joseph, Nick Cross

Cine might be the truest deep safety in this class with only 8% of his snaps in the box and 14% in the slot. He has the speed that can translate from sideline to sideline with a 4.37 40. Last year Cine had eight targets as a help defender (meaning, for example, safety in a deep zone when another player was in man coverage on the receiver). All three players in this group had eight, and none of the other safeties listed had more than two.

But with that, Cine has the ability to make a seamless transition into the backend of modern defenses because of how well he can play downhill, against both the run and the pass.

 

 

There weren’t many times when Cine had to clean up a tackle on the backend in the Georgia defense, but when it was his time in the run fit, he was able to explode into the gap. That also showed up in some read and react plays against the pass.

 

 

Cine’s 10% broken and missed tackle rate was also tied for the sixth-best among safeties in this draft class. That bodes well for when he would be asked to rotate down into the box or be asked to fit the run from a deep alignment. 

When lined up as a deep safety in coverage, Cine allowed just six completions on 12 catchable passes (14 total targets) for just 60 yards with seven passes defensed. On throws of 20 or more air yards, Cine allowed only one catch on five targets with one interception in 2021. Cine’s 0.2 yards allowed per coverage snap as a deep safety ranked fourth among all safeties in college football, per SIS.

Both Cross and Joseph might be discount versions of what Cine brings to the table without having the full packages.

Cross can be a rangy safety in the backend and can roll down to match up with tight ends in coverage but he’s probably not going to be the best run fitter from the deep part of the field. He’s an aggressive tackler but his average depth of tackle was 21% worse than expected given the circumstances on the field.

Joseph played some single-high at Illinois, which highlighted his range in coverage. As a deep safety, he allowed six catches on 11 targets for just 98 yards with three interceptions. He made a play on the ball on 1.6% of plays, which ranked third in this class. Joseph positions himself well to make tackles, but isn’t the most aggressive downhill player. His average depth of tackle was 38% below the expected average in 2021.

Box Safety

Jaquan Brisker, Bryan Cook

Labeling Brisker as a box safety might be selling him short a bit as he’s closer to a discount do-it-all safety than one who should be pigeonholed to the box. Call him a do-it-most safety.

Brisker’s 30% box rate did lead this class and being near the ball is where he’s done his best work. In the middle of Penn State’s defense, he was consistently in control of communication pre-snap and if there’s a safety in this class who might be worthy of a green dot in the future, it could be Brisker. He gives shades of John Johnson’s role when he broke out with the Rams.

Part of what makes Brisker so effective is his ability to read what’s in front of him. He adds to that with the explosion to close in after he makes his read.

 

 

His broken tackle rate was high, but he was consistently in on the attempts and was a better than average tackler by depth. Brisker reportedly played through a shoulder injury during 2021, so 2020 could be more indicative of how he’ll hold up as a tackler — a 0% broken + missed tackle rate on 63 attempts.

When lined up as a deep safety, Brisker allowed one completion on three targets of 20 or more air yards and got his hand on the ball for the other two. He played 59 coverage snaps in the slot during the 2021 season and was targeted just once. Deterring targets is the point of coverage and that 0.02 targets per coverage snap in the slot was easily the best in this class.

Cook did his best work near the line of scrimmage but also has the awareness to excel in zone coverage. Most of Cook’s line of scrimmage work came from the slot, but rarely was he completely manned up in that alignment.

When in coverage in the slot, Cook allowed an impressive 0.5 yards per coverage snap, which matches Hamilton and Cine. While he was highly targeted there (0.15 targets per coverage snap), he was among the best at stopping targets from being completed. Cook had the ninth-lowest completion rate on catchable targets among 78 safeties with at least 100 coverage snaps from the slot. He also had the third-lowest yards per target overall in this class. He had 10 pass breakups in 2021.

Cook is one of the best tacklers among these safeties with a best-in-class 7% broken + missed tackle rate with an average tackle depth 12% better than average.

Slot Safety

Jalen Pitre, Daxton Hill

Pitre and Hill might stretch the term safety because of how often they played in the slot last season but they both have extreme versatility to play all over the defense.

At worst, Pitre can slide himself into a Mike Hilton-type role as a slot corner and an elite blitzer. At his best, Pitre could move around in a Tyrann Mathieu-type role. He’s on the smaller side, 5-foot-10 and 198 pounds, but he’s always around the ball.

Pitre lived behind the line of scrimmage, exploding downhill. He might be one of the best blitzing defensive backs as soon as he stepped on the field in the NFL. His 17% blitz rate was easily the tops in this class and it wasn’t just about the volume — the effectiveness was there too. Eight defensive backs in college football had at least 50 pass rush snaps in 2021 and Pitre’s pressure rate was the second-highest.

The pressure rate is great but getting in the backfield extended past that. He had 19 tackles for loss, which led all safeties in 2021. The next highest safety was at 11 and only one other had at least 10.

 

 

In coverage from the slot, Pitre had an impressive 0.6 yards allowed per coverage snap and a 46.2% completion percentage.

 

 

Hill also spent more than 75% of his snaps in the slot during the 2021 season. He allowed a few more yards — 0.8 yards per coverage snap with a 62.2% completion percentage. But Hill was also able to get his hands on the ball at a high rate — 1.8%, behind only Hamilton.

Some of his coverage struggles came in man, but he was at his best when he hung out in the short-intermediate area in zone.

 

 

Hill also excelled around the line. He had the third-best broken + missed tackle rate and while he didn’t have the same blitz rate as Pitre, it was still the second-highest in the class. He also was able to turn those pass rush snaps into effective plays even when pressure didn’t come.

 

His top-end athleticism — 92nd percentile wingspan, 95th percentile 40, 97th percentile 10-yard split, and 97th percentile 3-cone — show up on the field and give Hill the range to play all over.

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