The 2023 NFL regular season schedule has officially been released in full for the league’s 17-game, 18-week regular season.
The season will open with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Detroit Lions on September 7, 2023.
Below is a schedule grid that features each team’s week-by-week schedule.
2023 NFL Strength of Schedule
While there aren’t perfect NFL strength of schedule metrics, using 2023 Vegas win totals is much better than so many widely used metrics that use the previous season’s record.
The Vegas win totals give us a better indication of what teams could look like in 2023 than their 2022 wins would.
Using that metric, we can see the New Orleans Saints have the easiest projected schedule while the New England Patriots have the hardest.
What NFL team has the easiest schedule for 2023:
Based on projected win totals, the New Orleans Saints have the easiest strength of schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
NFL teams with the easiest schedules in 2023:
- New Orleans Saints
- Atlanta Falcons
- Indianapolis Colts
- Carolina Panthers
- San Francisco 49ers
What NFL team has the hardest schedule in 2023:
Based on projected win totals, the New England Patriots have the hardest strength of schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
NFL teams with the hardest schedules in 2023:
- New England Patriots
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Miami Dolphins
- Buffalo Bills
- Kansas City Chiefs
Rest Disparity
The Jets, Bears, and Commanders have 12 extra days of rest than their opponents, the most in the league.
The 49ers have 20 fewer days of rest than their opponents, the fewest in the league.
- Each block represents a game where rest is not equal between a team and its opponent — if rest is identical, no block is displayed
- A positive number indicates the team has a rest advantage of that many days, and a negative number indicates a rest disadvantage of that many days
- Example: The Cowboys face one team who is off of a bye (-7) and another off a Thursday night game (-3). However, they have a bye before facing the Rams (+6), play on Thursday before the Eagles (+3), play the Jets off a Monday night game (+1), and play on Saturday before facing the Commanders (+1). Added together, that gives them an overall rest edge of plus one day.
Why Does Rest Disparity Matter?
Net rest is the extra number of rest days a team has over their opponent per game, summed over the course of the season.
Last year, three teams had net rest edges of negative-10 days or worse: Packers (-12), Patriots (-10), and Texans (-10). All three fell below their expected win total.
The two teams with the best net rest edges last year, the Bills (+12) and Lions (+11), went over their win totals. Buffalo hit the over despite one fewer game because of the Demar Hamlin injury, and the Lions were one of the most surprising success stories of 2022.
Rest edges also matter for weekly lines.
Last year, teams with a net rest edge of three or more days went 32-24-1 (57%) and covered the spread at a 54.4% rate.
It is even more valuable later in the season.
Since 2015, teams with a three or more day rest advantage from Week 13 onward have won 55.2% of their games and have covered the spread in 55.7% of games over a 106-game sample.
This is despite the betting lines at times being “adjusted” to account for these rest edges.
Understanding rest and prep advantages is a great way to find an edge both in NFL win totals and weekly game lines.
Read more about the rest disparity in the 2023 NFL Schedule.
It’s HERE!
The 2023 NFL Schedule Grid 👀
• color coded w day & location
• formatted to save as phone backgroundPlus analysis featuring:
• schedule quirks
• toughest & easiest schedules
• tons of insights & nuggets updating all night longRead:https://t.co/WyYgkW40XP pic.twitter.com/5gZ0bJNLwk
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 12, 2023
Schedule Notes
note on back-to-back road games
since 2015, road teams off a HOME game:
44.4% wins, 52.6% covers
since 2015, road teams off a ROAD game:
43.4% wins, 48.8% covers
and excluding 2020 (no crowds), road teams off a ROAD game:
41.8% wins, 48.4% covers
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 11, 2023
easiest schedule the first 6 weeks:
1. Saints
2. Eagles
3. Bengals
4. Falcons
5. 49ers
6. Bears
7. Ravens
8. Colts
9. Lions
10. CowboysBY FAR the easiest schedule the first 6 weeks is for the Saints
4 road games, but they don’t play a single team expected to win 8+ games pic.twitter.com/4rLsshJDlr
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 12, 2023
toughest schedule the first 6 weeks:
32. Jets
31. Browns
30. Patriots
29. Titans
28. Buccaneers
27. Chiefs
26. Vikings
25. Panthers
24. Giants(32 = toughest)
BY FAR the toughest schedule the first 6 weeks is NYJ
face 4 teams projected to win > 9 games pic.twitter.com/huXjWjfsqQ
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 12, 2023
The Chiefs only have two games against teams coming off a bye, but interestingly enough they are against the Bills and Eagles. Both in KC at least.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) May 12, 2023
First up–my favorite–NET travel distance (team travel minus the travel their opponents must make to play them). A lot of attention is paid to total travel but this is another way to look at it. pic.twitter.com/zFiEl4ppqL
— Brian Burke (@bburkeESPN) May 12, 2023
Miami has a really interesting schedule
thru Week 14, toughest opponents are on the road
then they come home to play weaker opponents
MIA ranks #1 ATS team at home since 2020 (17-8 SU & ATS .680)
but are 11-14 .440 on the road (.500 ATS)
interesting bet on/against potential pic.twitter.com/4pO6peU7K6
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 12, 2023
from November 1st onward, no one plays a more difficult schedule than the Buffalo Bills
not only do they play 6 of 8 games vs teams projected to finish the year with a winning record…
they play 4 of their final 6 games on the road pic.twitter.com/k1JViAfYbZ
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 12, 2023
Per DraftKings, the Steelers at over 8.5 wins is the most-bet win total since last night’s schedule release at 8pm.
Bears over 7.5, Lions over 9.5, Ravens over 9.5, and Packers over 7.5 round out the top-5.
— Brooke Pryor (@bepryor) May 12, 2023
Games Favored per DraftKings
17 – Chiefs
16 – 49ers
15 – Bengals
14 – Eagles
13 – Bills
12 – Cowboys, Lions, Jets, Chargers
11 – Ravens, Dolphins, Jaguars
Most primetime games
6: KC, LAC, BUF, DAL
5: NYJ, GB, MIN, LV, PHI, SF, NYG
4: DET, CHI, DEN, BAL, CIN, NE, PIT
Fewest primetime games
3: NO, SEA, JAX, MIA
2: TB, CLE, TEN, CAR, LAR
1: WSH
0: HOU, ATL, ARZ, IND
Teams with three straight home games (no byes)
Ravens (Weeks 9-11)
Cowboys (Weeks 12-14)
Texans (Weeks 11-13)
Rams (Weeks 5-7)
Dolphins (Weeks 14-16)
Saints (Weeks 13-15)
Jets (Weeks 12-14)
Steelers (Weeks 8-10)
49ers (Weeks 3-5)
Teams with three straight road games (no byes)
Ravens (Weeks 4-6 — Week 6 in London)
Panthers (Weeks 12-14)
Broncos (Weeks 13-15)
Giants (Weeks 9-11)
Titans (Weeks 9-11)
First two games on the road
Packers
Raiders
Dolphins
49ers
Longest stretches between road games
Raiders: home from 11/20 to 12/24 — 35 days
Browns: home from 9/19 to 10/21 — 33 days