1st & 10: Lamar Jackson, Kellen Moore, & Other Notes From Week 1

Welcome to 1st & 10, a (potentially) weekly wrapup column where we’ll take a look at some of the biggest stories from Sunday’s NFL action. This week, we’re stuck between getting overly excited about football being back but not overreacting to one game samples. That balance is much harder than it sounds.

1. Lamar Jackson Can Throw

Where else can we start than with Lamar Jackson’s performance against the Miami Dolphins? During the offseason, John Harbaugh said he’d take the over on Jackson rushing attempts, which made us wonder how much would be too much quarterback running. Jackson finished Baltimore’s season opener with just three rushes for six yards and instead lit it up through in air en route to a 59-10 Ravens blowout win.

Jackson went 17-of-20 passing for 324 and five touchdowns. That was enough for a QBR of 99.4. Single-game QBR is best viewed as a win probability metric, so that tells you a team that saw Jackon’s performance at quarterback would win 99.4% of the time. What could that 0.6% possibly look like?

This wasn’t just a performance beating up on a bad defense, though there was some of that. It could be argued with players like Xavien Howard, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Rashad Jones, the Dolphins’ secondary is the part of the roster that most resembles an NFL team. Even so, Jackson’s performance was better than expected. Per Next Gen Stats, Jackson’s expected completion percentage — which factors in things like depth of throw and defender locations — was 60.2%. Jackson completed 85% percent of his throws and that 24.8% gap would have been the third biggest of the 2018 season. Only four quarterbacks had a completion percentage above expectation over 20%. No quarterback with at least 20 attempts was higher than Jackson’s Week 1 performance.

Quality of competition also isn’t a great argument in a blowout. One of the best signs of a good team is the ability to destroy inferior opponents and it’s a better indicator than winning close games. That idea has long been a staple of Football Outsiders. Even against bad teams, blowouts don’t really happen unless the team in question has earned it. Last season there were 19 games that finished with a point differential of 30 or more points. Only five of those 19 winning teams did not make the playoffs.

Against the Dolphins, Jackson had success throwing to 2019 first-round pick Marquise Brown — the two connected on touchdowns of 47 and 83 yards in the first quarter — but really Jackson had success throwing to everyone. Mark Andrews quietly had eight receptions for 108 yards (and a touchdown from Robert Griffin III). Jackson also threw touchdowns to Willie Snead, Miles Boykin, and Patrick Ricard.

This has the makings of a dangerous offense and one that gets the defense of the Arizona Cardinals next week.

2. Offensive savior… Kellen Moore?

Throughout the offseason, there was talk about how new Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was going to add modern elements to the Dallas offense. That talk immediately proved to be based in fact during the Cowboys’ Week 1 game against the New York Giants.

If any questions needed to be answered, they were on the first play of the game when Dallas ran a play-action pass and Dak Prescott hit Amari Cooper for a 13-yard gain.

Early downs were key for the success of Prescott and the Cowboys offense under Moore. In the first half, the Cowboys threw the ball on 21 of their 33 plays on first or second down. That 63.6% pass rate would have matched the Kansas City Chiefs for the second-highest rate in the league on early downs in the first half last season. The 2018 Cowboys threw the ball just 51% of the time in those situations, which was the 11th-lowest rate in the league.

Dallas was also incredibly successful on those early down passing plays with 12.69 Expected Points Added in the first half per nflscrapR, opposed to minus-2.55 EPA on 12 rushing attempts.

A number of elements combined for a perfect storm of offense against a division rival. There was trust in Prescott, execution from the quarterback, and a mix of play-calls and designs that haven’t been seen in Dallas before, like this swing pass to a motioning Randall Cobb with the offensive line and running back running a pin-pull to the opposite side.

 

Like the Ravens, the Cowboys’ performance could be written off against a bad defense — the Giants’ secondary continually looked lost in coverage throughout the game — but the focus on the process is what should be encouraging for the offense going forward.

The next test is to see if this early-down passing was due to Ezekiel Elliott not being 100% game ready or if this is a plan that will continue throughout the season Elliott or not.

3. Comeback Kyler

While the Baltimore and Dallas offenses came out swinging out of the gate, Kliff Kingsbury’s Arizona Cardinals offense took some time to get going against the Detroit Lions. It wasn’t just a slow start, it was downright ugly. Anyone expecting a Chip Kelly-like debut was massively disappointed.

Arizona’s first-half drives went as follows: three-play punt, six-play interception, three-play punt, three-play punt, four-play punt, six-play punt, four-play field goal. The scoring drive only went six yards, thanks to a muffed punt return for the Lions. The Cardinals found themselves down 17-3 at half and then down 24-6 at the end of the third quarter.

But in that fourth quarter, something clicked for the Cardinals, Kyler Murray looked like Oklahoma Kyler Murray and Arizona came back to tie the game and force overtime. It started with an improbable throw to Larry Fitzgerald for 41 yards on 3rd and 14 (Next Gen Stats gave it a 22.5% completion probability, the seventh-lowest of any completion this week):

 

And it ended with a pair of well-designed goal-line plays for a touchdown and 2-point conversion to tie the game.

 

Murray’s fourth quarter was unreal. His 20 drop backs were worth 15.49 EPA, despite finishing every other quarter, including overtime, with negative EPA.

What this showed is there is hope for what Kingsbury and Murray can do together. (The limited volume run game even worked while David Johnson had zero rushing attempts with eight or more men in the box, per NGS). There are going to be some rough moments (next week against the Ravens won’t help) and there are certainly things to work on (the Cardinals could have come away with a win instead of a tie if Kingsbury didn’t get his fourth-down decision making from Sean McVay), but that fourth quarter gave just enough hope for what this offense could eventually become.

4. A bad day for running back holdouts

There were two major running back holdouts during the offseason. One ended with just enough time to prepare for Week 1, but the other is expected to last well into the season. Neither had a great day for their cases.

We already touched on how Ezekiel Elliott’s team had a breakout day on offense, but the newly extended back touched the ball just 14 times. Almost all of the damage for Dallas was done via Dak Prescott throwing to the team’s wide receivers.

Then there is Melvin Gordon, who is still staying away from the Los Angeles Chargers. In his absence, the Chargers’ committee combined for 21 rushes for 125 yards and a touchdown, which was the 7-yard game-winner from Austin Ekeler in overtime.

Ekeler only carried the ball 12 times and Justin Jackson only had six rushing attempts (though for 56 yards), but Ekeler was a big part of the passing game. He was the Chargers’ second-leading receiver with six catches for 92 yards and two touchdowns, including a 55-yard touchdown on a perfectly executed screen pass in the third quarter.

5. Jared Goff had a rough day

Last week the Los Angeles Rams announced a contract extension for Jared Goff that included $110 million in guarantees and will keep the quarterback in LA through 2024. His first game was not what anyone would have expected after that deal was signed.

Goff finished a Week 1 win against the Carolina Panthers was 186 yards on 39 attempts (4.8 yards per attempt) and a QBR of 20.0. The Rams were lucky the opposing quarterback, Cam Newton, was just slightly worse with a 17.1 QBR.

It was a troubling day for Goff all-around with missed reads and accuracy issues. He finished the day 10.6% below his expected completion percentage, per NGS, and his average completion was just 3.4 yards past the line of scrimmage. Only Jimmy Garoppolo (2.2) and Sam Darnold (2.3) were worse on Sunday. Last year, Goff’s average completion was 7.0 yards past the line of scrimmage, which was the fourth-highest in the league among qualified quarterbacks.

Goff was worth a troubling minus-0.11 EPA per drop back with a 45% success rate. The Rams were really saved by the defense and running game, but not so much Todd Gurley. Malcolm Brown had a massive impact on just 11 carries with two touchdowns and a 36% first down rate.

6. Patrick Mahomes is still staying away from defenders

A few weeks ago, we dove into how the best offenses were scheming up ways to avoid tight windows. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes were the poster boys for this strategy. That continued in a 40-26 Kansas City Chiefs win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Mahomes only threw into a tight window on 3% of his passing attempts on Sunday. What made the Kansas City offense so dangerous was how those tight windows were avoided while shots were still taken down the field. That didn’t happen quite as often against Jacksonville — Mahomes’s average pass only went 5.9 yards pas the line of scrimmage — but some of that could be due to the ankle injury he sustained during the game. The Chiefs did little to risk Mahomes’s health after his ankle appeared to be rolled up on and the offense shifted to quick throws that limited the number of steps needed and time in the pocket.

Still, there was no shortage of well-designed open plays early in the game, like the 48-yard touchdown pass to Sammy Watkins that took advantage of Myles Jack in coverage.

 

7. Atlanta’s defense remains a problem

The season before Dan Quinn took over as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, they were dead last in defensive DVOA. In the four years since the defensive-minded Quinn has been at the helm, the Falcons have ranked 22nd, 26th, 22nd, and 31st. Last year’s ranking was mostly believed to be due to injuries and a healthy unit with Quinn taking a bigger role in the day-to-day was expected to bring better results.

Week 1 wasn’t a good start. Atlanta lost 28-12 to the Minnesota Vikings and that score makes it seem closer than it was. The Vikings were in control for so much of the game, they finished with just 10 passing attempts.

Minnesota had its way on the ground — 38 rushing attempts for 173 yards and three touchdowns — and the Falcons couldn’t stop it. Atlanta forced just two three-and-outs all game and one was when they were already down 28-0.

There’s just too much talent on this Falcons defense for it to be this bad for this long. Their 2019 won’t get much easier; they face the Philadelphia Eagles next Sunday night.

8. Play of the Day

Before Cam Newton got injured last season, the Panthers had a fun and innovate offense under Norv Turner with a number of interesting wrinkles. The overall result wasn’t great on Sunday, but all creativity was not lost.

With a 1st and Goal at the 8-yard line, the Panthers came out with a trips bunch to the right, Greg Olsen to the left, and had Newton and Christian McCaffery in the backfield. Just before the snap, Newton and McCaffery shifted so the running back was behind the center. The ball was snapped to McCaffery, who faked a handoff to Newton, then ran right into the end zone for a touchdown.

 

9. Chart of the day

Last year’s Eagles offense was missing a truly explosive big-play threat. They fixed that in the offseason by trading for former Eagle DeSean Jackson. In his first game back, Jackson immediately gave the Eagles an element that wasn’t available to them last season. Jackson had eight receptions on 10 targets for 154 yards and two touchdowns.

Jackson played almost exclusively on the right side and worked either out-breaking or went deep. Jackson’s two biggest plays were deep shots from the slot, an element of offense we discussed in Warren’s 2019 Football Preview. Last season, deep shots from the slot were worth 0.35 EPA per attempt, opposed to 0.22 EPA per attempt on deep shots from the outside. Deep targets from the slot also had a higher positive play rate (38.1% to 31.6%).

10. The New England Patriots are inevitable

It’s always fun to gear up for an entire season and quickly find out the best team is still just the best team. The Patriots easily handled the Pittsburgh Steelers 33-3 on Sunday night. Tom Brady averaged 9.5 yards per attempt and had three touchdowns with a 90 QBR. Josh Gordon, Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett, and Jakobi Meyers all had their moments and this is a team that is going to add Antonio Brown to the mix.

Meanwhile, the defense might be the strongest unit on the team. New England’s defense held James Conner and Jaylen Samuels to a combined 25 yards on 12 carries. Ben Roethlisberger averaged 5.9 yards per attempt and finished with an 18.2 QBR. Juju Smith-Schuster had six catches for 78 yards, but was never really a threat as Bill Belichick’s “take away what you do best” strategy largely worked on Pittsburgh’s new No. 1 receiver.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.