Remaining NFL Strength Of Schedule 2023, Rest of Season

The Texans face the easiest schedule in the AFC for the rest of the season.
The Ravens face the hardest schedule in the AFC for the rest of the season.
The Saints face the easiest schedule in the NFC for the rest of the season.
The Commanders face the hardest schedule in the NFC for the rest of the season.

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AFC Remaining Strength of Schedule

NFC Remaining Strength of Schedule

Remaining Strength of Schedule by Offense, QB, & RB

As we approach NFL games in December, the standings are tighter from top-to-bottom than we’ve seen in recent years.

There are many reasons, one of which is historically lower scoring introducing more variance into game results.

In the AFC, the all-important No. 1 seed and bye week is currently possessed by the Baltimore Ravens.

But with a record of 9-3, they are just 1 win ahead of three other teams that sit at 8-3. And as we’ll discuss momentarily, the Baltimore Ravens face the #1 toughest schedule from now until the end of the season.

Additionally, six teams sit within one game of making or missing the playoffs:

7-4: Steelers, Browns
6-5: Colts, Texans, Broncos
6-6: Bills

In the NFC, a huge game sits on deck as the current No. 1 seed Eagles (10-1) host the current No. 2 seed 49ers (8-3).

The NFC, like the AFC, has three teams sitting at 8-3 behind the No. 1 seed, and there are likewise six teams that sit within one game of making or missing the playoffs:

6-5: Seahawks
6-6: Vikings
5-6: Falcons, Packers, Rams, Saints

Understanding the future schedule for each of these teams is vital as we try to understand who has the best chance to make the playoffs as well as truly understanding who they played to earn their wins on the season.

Deeper in this article, I will analyze which quarterbacks face the easiest or toughest schedules of passing defenses and which running backs will face the easiest or toughest schedules of rushing defenses.

But first, let’s zoom out and just look at total team efficiency to understand which teams will face the most difficult final weeks as they make their push to the playoffs.

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Remaining NFL Strength of Schedule Visualization

Rather than discussing each team 1-32, let’s go conference by conference and analyze each team that has at least a 10% chance to make the playoffs according to the New York Times playoff simulator.

Remaining AFC Strength of Schedule Visualization

Ranking All AFC Teams by Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
New York Jets
Cleveland Browns
Kansas City Chiefs
Los Angeles Chargers
Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Denver Broncos
Miami Dolphins
Las Vegas Raiders
New England Patriots
Tennessee Titans
Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens

Ranked easiest to hardest

Baltimore Ravens Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Based on team efficiency this season, the Baltimore Ravens have the #1 hardest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current AFC Seed: 1st

The Ravens face the toughest schedule in the NFL to close the season, but Baltimore has grown accustomed to a difficult schedule.

On the season to date, the Ravens have played the NFL’s #8 most difficult schedule.

Of the eight division leaders in the NFL as of today, the only team in the top 10 of schedule difficulty from now through the end of the season is the Ravens.

After their Week 13 bye, the Ravens will close the season with the Rams followed by four games against top-10 teams: 49ers, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Steelers.

The remainder of the AFC’s current top-eight seeds all face schedules that rank top-15 easiest in the NFL, with the lone exception of the Dolphins.

Down the stretch, the Ravens defense will be tested. They have played just two top-10 offenses this season: the #9 Texans who were playing a rookie QB in Week 1 in a Tropical Storm, and the #7 Lions, a dome team playing outdoors in Baltimore.

Over their final five games, the Ravens will play three top-10 offenses (#1 49ers, #2 Dolphins, and #10 Rams).

Kansas City Chiefs Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Based on team efficiency this season, the Kansas City Chiefs have the #12 easiest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current AFC Seed: 2nd

The Chiefs have a far easier path than the Ravens, but that has been the case so far this season as well. The Chiefs have played just the #17 toughest schedule this season to date.

Now they face the #12 easiest schedule from now through Week 18 and the #5 easiest schedule of teams in the AFC.

Beginning with the Packers this week, the Chiefs will play four of their final six games against opponents ranking outside the top 15 in the NFL (Packers, Patriots, Raiders, and Bengals sans Joe Burrow).

Their lone difficult games remaining are against the Bills (KC owns a 3-2 record vs. Buffalo in the Patrick Mahomes era) and Chargers (KC is 4-0 vs. the Chargers in their last four games, and Andy Reid is 16-3 vs. the Chargers since becoming head coach in 2014).

It’s for good reason the Chiefs are heavy favorites to win the AFC compared to the Ravens, and that is because it is quite likely they will jump them for the No. 1 seed and a bye thanks to their easy schedule.

The lone concern from a past-schedule perspective for the Chiefs is the fact that their offense ranks #8 in efficiency despite playing the #6 easiest schedule to date.

The only games they’ve played top-15 defenses to date were narrow, one-score wins over the Jets (23-20), Vikings (27-20), and Jaguars (17-9).

Jacksonville Jaguars Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Based on team efficiency this season, the Jacksonville Jaguars have the #15 easiest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current AFC Seed: 3rd

Despite playing in the weaker AFC South, the Jaguars have actually played the #2 toughest schedule to date.

Their lone losses on the season came vs. the toughest competition, as they went 2-3 vs. teams ranking top-12 (losses to the 49ers, Chiefs, and Texans; wins vs. the Bills and Texans).

Fortunately for the Jaguars, they play the #15 easiest schedule to close the year and #7 easiest in the AFC.

The ease in schedule shift from past to future is the #3 best in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Based on team efficiency this season, the Miami Dolphins have the #11 hardest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current AFC Seed: 4th

The Dolphins’ final 5 weeks is the inverse of that of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

After facing the #3 easiest schedule so far this season, playing only four games vs. teams that rank top-20 in total efficiency and losing the three games they played vs. top-10 teams (Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles), the Dolphins will face top-five teams over the final three weeks: the Ravens, Cowboys, and Bills.

Miami also has an absolutely brutal stretch of defenses to close the year.

Aside from their games in the AFC East vs. two teams with solid defense and terrible offense (Jets and Patriots), to date, the Dolphins have played the #4 defense of the Chiefs and the #10 defense of the Bills. They are 0-2 in those games.

In the final three weeks of the season, the Dolphins offense will be tested vs. the #1 defense of the Ravens, #5 defense of the Cowboys, and #10 defense of the Bills.

They will face the #5 toughest increase in schedule difficulty from the past to the future.

Pittsburgh Steelers Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Based on team efficiency this season, the Pittsburgh Steelers have the #15 easiest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current AFC Seed: 5th

The Steelers have won 6 of their 7 games while being outgained by their opponents, but it’s not as if the Steelers haven’t played a tough schedule.

On the season, Pittsburgh has faced the NFL’s #4 toughest schedule.

They have dispatched every team that ranks below average in total efficiency, producing a 5-0 sweep against the Raiders, Rams, Titans, Packers, and Bengals.

They will play just two above-average teams in total efficiency over their final six games (Ravens and Colts).

Pittsburgh’s rest of season schedule ranks #15 easiest in the NFL and #7 easiest in the AFC. It also is the #7 easiest shift from past to future.

Given this schedule, it’s highly unlikely the Steelers miss the playoffs.

And with the Steelers expected to finish #4 in the AFC North and miss the playoffs prior to the start of the season, there is a very real chance that not only does Mike Tomlin extend his streak of not having a losing season to 17-straight years, but also finally get the ultimate respect paid to him and be awarded the NFL’s Coach of the Year honors.

Cleveland Browns Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Based on team efficiency this season, the Cleveland Browns have the #11 easiest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current AFC Seed: 6th

The Browns have played a brutal schedule to date, like the Steelers, playing the NFL’s #3 toughest schedule so far this year.

The good news is they will face the NFL’s #11 easiest schedule for the rest of the season, which represents the #2 easiest shift from past to future. Cleveland will face the #4 easiest schedule in the AFC moving forward.

The bad news is the Browns are now down to starting Joe Flacco at QB. Additionally, the two other teams sitting at 6-5, closely battling for the final AFC playoff seeds, both face easier schedules than the Browns to close the year (Colts #7 easiest, Texans #5 easiest).

Indianapolis Colts Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Based on team efficiency this season, the Indianapolis Colts have the #7 easiest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current AFC Seed: 7th

Everything is in front of the Colts as they look to secure a playoff berth.

After facing the NFL’s #16 toughest schedule through 12 weeks, the Colts play the #7 easiest schedule to close the year. It’s the #2 easiest schedule of any team in the AFC to close the season.

They play only two of their final six games vs. teams ranking top-15 in efficiency, and both are at home in Indy: Steelers and Texans.

Having already beaten the Texans in Houston back in Week 2, if the Colts simply beat the Texans in Week 18 at home, their playoff odds jump from 47% up to 66%.

Naturally, the Colts need to win games between now and then, and they will have to win a few without Jonathan Taylor.

But after playing 5 games vs. top-12 opponents in the first seven weeks this season, the Colts face just two such teams in the final six weeks.

Houston Texans Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Based on team efficiency this season, the Houston Texans have the #5 easiest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current AFC Seed: 8th

Sitting one spot out of the playoffs, the Texans have a clear path to make the playoffs thanks to an easy schedule.

The Texans play the NFL’s #5 easiest schedule to close the year. And it’s the #1 easiest schedule in the AFC.

After playing the #15 easiest schedule prior to Week 13, their schedule represents the #8 easiest shift from past to future.

Denver Broncos Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Based on team efficiency this season, the Denver Broncos have the #17 easiest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current AFC Seed: 9th

Denver started the year facing four bottom-10 teams in their first 5 weeks but beat just one of them (Bears) and sat 1-4 on the season.

But since then, except for a win over the #19 Packers, the Broncos have done nothing but play top-15 teams and went 4-1 in those games (Chiefs, Bills, Vikings, and Browns).

The Broncos play the NFL’s #17 easiest schedule to close the year. They have two games vs. bottom-10 teams of the Patriots and Raiders in the final three weeks of the season.

Prior to that, Denver must embark on a three-game road trip vs. the top 15 squads of the Texans, Chargers, and Lions.

Buffalo Bills Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Based on team efficiency this season, the Buffalo Bills have the #3 hardest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current AFC Seed: 10th

Buffalo has played the #2 easiest schedule through Week 12 and sits merely at 6-6.

They have no one to blame but themselves.

The schedule was there for the Bills to start the season with a solid record, allowing them to struggle if they needed to down the stretch. But they dropped games below average teams including the Jets, Bengals, Broncos, and Patriots.

Now the Bills must face the NFL’s #3 most difficult schedule of opponents in their final five games of the year after a bye this week.

They have to play three top-six teams (Chiefs, Cowboys, and Dolphins) with two of those coming on the road. Buffalo will also make a trip to the #13 Chargers in Week 16.

They will face the #1 toughest increase in schedule difficulty from the past to the future.

Remaining NFC Strength of Schedule Visualization

Ranking All NFC Teams by Remaining Strength of Schedule:

New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Green Bay Packers
Philadelphia Eagles
Carolina Panthers
Chicago Bears
San Francisco 49ers
Detroit Lions
Los Angeles Rams
Minnesota Vikings
New York Giants
Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys
Washington Commanders

Ranked easiest to hardest

Philadelphia Eagles Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Based on team efficiency this season, the Philadelphia Eagles have the #6 easiest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current NFC Seed: 1st

The Eagles are close to clinching a playoff spot already, and we are only in Week 13. Additionally, the Eagles have the NFL’s #6 easiest schedule to close the season, including the #5 easiest of any NFC team.

The Eagles began the season slowly but still rattled off a 5-0 start. It was vitally important because from Weeks 9 through 14, no team would face a more difficult schedule than Philadelphia.

So the Eagles needed to bank wins, and they did.

But they’ve since defeated every top-six opponent they have faced:

#3 Chiefs
#4 Cowboys
#5 Bills
#6 Dolphins

And these wins have come from Week 7 through Week 12.

Only two more games stand between the Eagles and the NFL’s #1 easiest schedule from Week 15 onward:

Home vs. the 49ers in Week 13
Away vs. the Cowboys in Week 14

After that, it’s cruise control time for the Eagles.

They will close the season with games vs. the Giants twice, the Cardinals, and the Seahawks, all of which are either below average (Seahawks) or bottom-3 (Giants and Cardinals).

The New York Times has the Eagles with a 68% chance of landing the #1 seed. And yet, the Eagles still sit tied with the 49ers at +190 at some sportsbooks to win the NFC.

Their game vs. the 49ers in Philadelphia this Sunday is massively important for the direction of the NFC No. 1 seed.

San Francisco 49ers Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Based on team efficiency this season, the San Francisco 49ers have the #12 easiest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current NFC Seed: 2nd

The 49ers have played the NFL’s #13 easiest schedule so far this year, and not much will change the rest of the season. They will face the NFL’s #12 easiest schedule from Week 13 through 18.

Aside from the brutal game in Philadelphia on Sunday, the 49ers play only one above-average team the rest of the season (Ravens) and it is in San Francisco.

The 49ers defense will be the unit most tested to close the season.

On the year, the 49ers’ #12 ranked defense has played the #10 easiest schedule of opposing offenses.

In their first 11 games, San Francisco has played just three offenses that rank inside the top 15 on the season (Cowboys, Rams, and Vikings).

In their final six games, the 49ers will play five offenses that rank inside the top 15. The Cardinals are the only remaining opponent without a top-15 offense.

Detroit Lions Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Based on team efficiency this season, the Detroit Lions have the #17 easiest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current NFC Seed: 3rd

The Lions have played the #8 easiest schedule of opponents on the season and have struggled with every opponent on their schedule that ranks #20 or better.

They have narrow wins over the Chiefs and Chargers while dropping games to the Packers, Ravens, and Seahawks.

The schedule does get more difficult to close the season, but only if the Vikings don’t implode. Two of the Lions’ final three games are vs. Minnesota.

Right now, the Vikings are the NFL’s #15 best team. But that ranking is sure to plummet as more games with backup QBs as opposed to Kirk Cousins begin to fill out their stats.

In addition to playing the NFL’s #17 easiest schedule the rest of the way, four of their final six games are on the road.

Atlanta Falcons Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Based on team efficiency this season, the Atlanta Falcons have the #2 easiest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current NFC Seed: 4th

The Falcons are the only team currently slated to be in the 2023 playoffs with a losing record.

The bad news for the Falcons is they played the #6 easiest schedule so far this year and have a 5-6 record to show for it.

The good news is Atlanta will play the NFL’s #2 easiest schedule for the rest of the season.

Atlanta’s defense has helped carry the offense for some stretches of the season. That might continue as Atlanta faces zero offenses which currently rank above #19 to close the season (Jets, Panthers, Bucs, Colts, Bears, and Saints).

A strong run for the Falcons defense will reduce what the offense needs to do on the scoreboard.

But with the Saints struggling and suffering cluster injuries at the WR position, if the Falcons don’t win the NFC South and make the playoffs, with such an easy schedule to close the season, they will have no one to blame but themselves.

Dallas Cowboys Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Based on team efficiency this season, the Dallas Cowboys have the #6 hardest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current NFC Seed: 5th

The Cowboys have rarely played an average team this year. They’ve either played some of the worst teams the NFL has to offer or some of the best.

Through 12 weeks, Dallas has played the #1 easiest schedule in the NFL. They’ve played four games vs. bottom-three teams and six total vs. bottom-10 teams.

In the two games they played vs. teams ranking inside the top 10, they lost (49ers, Eagles).

After playing the #1 easiest schedule to start the season, the Cowboys will play the #6 toughest schedule moving forward.

It’s the NFL’s #2 toughest increase in schedule difficulty from the past to the future. Only the Bills have a tougher jump in schedule difficulty.

The Cowboys won’t play a single team ranking outside the top 15 to close the year. And they play 4 teams ranking inside the top seven: Dolphins, Bills, Eagles, and Lions.

For this reason, coupled with the fact the Eagles have a two-game lead and a head-to-head win, the Cowboys have very little chance of winning the NFC East.

They’ll make the playoffs and are very likely to be the No. 5 seed. That means they’ll most likely travel to another dome, either in Atlanta or New Orleans, as a large Wild Card favorite in early January.

Technically speaking, that playoff game would be the easiest opponent the Cowboys will face in any possible future game.

A win in that game (technically an upset based on seeding only) would put them on a collision course to face the #2 team in the Divisional Round, barring another upset of greater magnitude. And that could be a rematch of last year’s game vs. the 49ers in San Francisco.

Seattle Seahawks Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Based on team efficiency this season, the Seattle Seahawks have the #8 hardest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current NFC Seed: 6th

The wheels are coming off the Seahawks, and their schedule to close the year won’t make matters any easier.

Seattle has played the NFL’s #9 easiest schedule so far this year. To close the season, they will play the #8 toughest schedule.

It is the NFL’s #6 toughest increase in schedule difficulty from the past to the future.

Seattle plays four of their final six games vs. top-10 teams, and their other two games are both on the road (Titans, Cardinals).

If we consider the Cowboys (thanks to an 8-3 record) to be near locks to make the playoffs (they have a 99% chance currently) then there is not a single team fighting to make the NFC playoffs with a tougher schedule than the Seahawks.

The Vikings, Packers, Rams, and Saints all have easier schedules and nearly identical current records.

Seattle doesn’t have a win against any of those teams to help matters any. In fact, they were swept by the Rams.

So, despite sitting at 6-5 and in the playoffs as the No. 6 seed presently, the Seahawks are going to have to pull off some upsets down the road vs. a very difficult schedule (#13 easiest of 16 NFC teams) if they are going to make the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Based on team efficiency this season, the Minnesota Vikings have the #13 hardest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current NFC Seed: 7th

The Vikings have played the #10 easiest schedule so far this year and are about to embark on the NFL’s #13 toughest schedule to close the season. It’s the #6 toughest of any NFC team.

That said, without a quarterback they can trust, the Vikings season may continue to go off the rails.

Just two weeks ago, Minnesota was sitting at 6-4 and feeling food about Josh Dobbs. Now, at 6-6 in a bye week, they are searching for answers.

Their three final games are all vs. NFC North opponents who are also fighting for the playoffs (Lions and Packers).

Green Bay Packers Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Based on team efficiency this season, the Green Bay Packers have the #4 easiest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current NFC Seed: 8th

The bad news for the Packers is they sit one spot outside the playoffs and are 0-1 vs. the Vikings in their season series.

The good news is they face the NFL’s #4 easiest schedule the rest of the way.

Of all the teams in both conferences that currently are seeded #9 or better, only one of those 18 teams has an easier schedule than the Packers (Falcons).

And after playing the #3 Chiefs this week, the Packers will play the #2 easiest schedule in the entire NFL from Weeks 14 through 18.

Green Bay will play three bottom-10 teams (Giants, Panthers, and Bears) while hosting the Bucs and visiting the rudderless Vikings in Week 17.

Right now, the Vikings are -122 to make the playoffs while the Packers are -110. The Vikings are +100 to miss the playoffs.

Los Angeles Rams Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Based on team efficiency this season, the Los Angeles Rams have the #14 hardest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current NFC Seed: 9th

The Rams have played the NFL’s #10 toughest schedule so far this year.

If you look at every NFC team currently ranked #10 or better in the conference, the Rams schedule stands out as, by far, the most difficult:

#1 easiest schedule: DAL
#4 easiest schedule: NO
#6 easiest schedule: ATL
#8 easiest schedule: DET
#9 easiest schedule: SEA
#10 easiest schedule: MIN
#11 easiest schedule: GB
#13 easiest schedule: PHI, SF (tie)
—
#23 easiest schedule: LAR

The Rams have played the Eagles, Cowboys, and 49ers, the top three teams in the NFC.

Unfortunately for the Rams, they still have to face the Ravens and 49ers.

And because of those two games, the Rams play the NFL’s #19 easiest schedule the rest of the season.

There are some cupcakes on their schedule, including bottom-five ranked Giants and Commanders, to go along with the Saints, who can’t seem to get on track of late.

But the Rams can’t overlook any opponent, given the fact they have struggled even with mediocre teams at times this season.

But if they can sweep those three games, it is not inconceivable an 8-9 Rams team could slip into the playoffs.

New Orleans Saints Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Based on team efficiency this season, the New Orleans Saints have the #1 easiest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current NFC Seed: 10th

Technically, the Saints have better odds to make the playoffs than both the Rams and Seahawks.

And that’s because the Saints have the NFL’s #1 easiest schedule for the rest of the season.

After they play the Lions in Week 13, they face the two worst teams in the NFL in back-to-back weeks (Giants and Panthers) before closing the season with three teams fighting for playoff spots but that rank #20 or worse (Rams, Bucs, Falcons).

On the season, the Saints are 4-1 vs. bottom-10 teams and are 1-5 vs. teams ranking outside the bottom-10 teams.

And we aren’t even talking about elite teams. The Saints have played the NFL’s #4 easiest schedule so far this year. They’ve played just one top-10 team this year (and lost).

The Saints should notch a couple more wins through Week 15 but then must use that springboard to a winning streak vs. more competitive teams to close the season or Derek Carr will once again find himself on his couch watching the playoffs.

And that would mean 10 years in the NFL for Carr without a single playoff win to his name.