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Last year through their Week 9 bye, Trevor Lawrence’s release was #2 fastest in the NFL on average.
But even with that quick release, out of 33 qualifying QBs with at least 100 attempts, Lawrence ranked:
- Under 3 seconds: -0.03 EPA/att (#19), 56% success (#14), 7.1 YPA (#8)
- Over 3 seconds: -0.44 EPA/att (#29), 31% success (#21), 7.0 YPA (#24)
Worse than this poor to mediocre production were the sacks, interceptions, and lack of completions.
On dropbacks of 3+ seconds, he completed just 40% of his passes (dead last) and over 25% of his dropbacks resulted in either a sack or an interception (#32 of 33, only Daniel Jones was worse).
Keep in mind, this was BEFORE the 49ers game in Week 10.
The reason for the dropoff hinged around pressure.
Lawrence was the #2 most sensitive QB to pressure in 2023.
This wasn’t new. Lawrence’s splits in 2022:
- Clean: +0.28 EPA/att (#8), 53% success (#13), 7.4 YPA (#18), 0.7% sack + INT rate (#5)
- Pressured: -0.35 EPA/att (#16), 31% success (#15), 5.9 YPA (#25), 19% sack + INT rate (#9)
In 2023 through Week 9, out of 33 QBs:
- Clean: +0.17 EPA/att (#16), 49% success (#18), 7.2 YPA (#19), 0.5% sack + INT rate (#1)
- Pressured: -0.78 EPA/att (#31), 31% success (#12), 7.1 YPA (#6), 28% sack + INT rate (#27)
Let’s get this straight first and foremost: every QB is worse when pressured. That is no shock.
But if you look at the splits for Lawrence and the QBs he is around in the rankings… there’s no one he should be near:
- Desmond Ridder
- Daniel Jones
- Ryan Tannehill
These aren’t “elite” QBs, and I think the entire NFL fan base was hoping that by year three Lawrence would be talked about as nearing that elite caliber of QB.
QBs who are better at dealing with pressure?
Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford
These QBs are up in the top 10 to 12 QBs when under pressure.
Lawrence was near the bottom of the NFL in 2023.
The most surprising aspect of it is that it didn’t improve with Doug Pederson. It has gotten worse.
And Pederson is an offensive-minded coach who should be able to help Lawrence.
So that’s where we stood entering Week 10’s game off of a bye vs. the 49ers.
And in that game, Lawrence was pressured on 31% of his dropbacks, which was average for him before the game (30% YTD).
Yet, he took 9 hits and 5 sacks. Nearly 50% of his pressures turned into sacks.
When he was pressured, Lawrence averaged -2.03 EPA/att, completed just 1 pass for 1.0 YPA, and threw 2 interceptions in addition to the 5 sacks he took.
As a result, Lawrence’s stats on the season through Week 10 when blitzed:
- #35 of 35 in completion %
- #34 in EPA/att
- #34 in success %
When pressured:
- #34 of 35 in EPA/att
- #30 in sack %
- #30 in sacks per pressure
This should be correctable unless it is a mental thing.
Lawrence is big and mobile. He should be able to move when pressured or stand in there after throwing to take the hit, but in either case, he must figure out how to avoid the negative plays and the detrimental sacks, interceptions, and other mistakes. And Pederson must help him figure it out.
Over the last three seasons, no player has as many fumbles lost as Lawrence, and it’s not particularly close.
two wild stats about a talented QB:
Trevor Lawrence is 1-18 when his defense doesn’t record a takeaway
1-18 (.053)!!!
WORST record for any QB
Lawrence has also LOST 21 fumbles the last 3 seasons
WORST in the NFL
(no other QB even has 15, let alone over 20)
MUST fix this pic.twitter.com/1bqc2YRXTC
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 28, 2024
He has lost 21 fumbles.
No other player is above 14.
If the Jaguars are going to have any success this season, they must get Lawrence to reduce his turnover-prone nature.
The Jaguars have played 40 games with at least 1 turnover since 2021. Only four teams have played more games with at least 1 turnover. Last year, they had 13 of 17 games with at least 1 turnover.