Warren Sharp’s new book, ‘2020 Sharp Football Preview,’ is now available — with over 350 pages of stats, analysis, and graphics breaking down what we learned from the 2019 NFL season and what we might see in 2020.
To celebrate the book release, we’ll be sharing some of the most interesting statistical narratives from each team chapter, beginning with the New England Patriots.
AFC’s Changing Of The Guard
Look at how the Ravens’ win over the Patriots (and Baltimore’s subsequent win streak) changed the odds to win the AFC.
Patriots record, AFC seed, and odds to win AFC
- 8-0, #1 seed, -250 to win AFC
<loss to Ravens>
- 8-1, #1 seed, -110 to win AFC
- 9-1, #1 seed, +120 to win AFC
- 10-1, #1 seed, +300 to win AFC
Sensitivity to Play-Action
From Week 10 onward, they were the most sensitive defense to play-action (aka most negatively affected) in quarters one through three:
- w/o PA: 4.4 YPA, 31% success
- w PA: 6.1 YPA, 40% success
- w/o PA: 5.7 YPA, 39% success
- w PA: 9.2 YPA, 67% success
Cam Newton Impacts Defensive Personnel…
Over the last several years against 11 personnel, defenses played dime (6+ DBs) on 19% of snaps. But against Cam Newton, defenses only used dime vs 11 on 7% of snaps. This affords Newton a luxury when passing that Tom Brady never received.
…And Performance Against Heavy Boxes
The 2018 Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots had a top-10 run offense & could run against light boxes, but struggled against heavier boxes:
- 6-: 0.15 EPA (#2), 5.7 YPC (#4)
- 7: -0.04 EPA (#15), 4.9 YPC (#11)
- 8+: -0.04 EPA (#15), 2.7 YPC (#25)
Meanwhile, thanks to Cam Newton, the Panthers ranked as a top rushing offense regardless of box defenders:
- 6-: 0.11 EPA (#6), 6.0 YPC (#3)
- 7: 0.18 EPA (#3), 6.7 YPC (#1)
- 8+: 0.10 EPA (#4), 3.8 YPC (#13)
(early downs rushes, 1st half of games)
Offensive Weapons (or lack thereof)
2019 Patriots passing offense consisted of:
- Julian Edelman: 100 catches, 1,117 yds, 6 TDs (153 targets)
- All other WRs: 119 catches, 1,445 yds, 10 TDs (214 targets)
- 52 attempts to TEs, the lowest total in the NFL
Purchase Warren Sharp’s new book, “2020 Football Preview,’ now available for immediate download.
This book shares insights into the players, coaches, teams, and philosophies with one goal in mind: to get you prepared for the 2020 season by delivering the smartest information in the fastest, most direct way possible for optimal reviewing and retention.