Expected fantasy points (xFP) are a great resource for fantasy football players looking for an edge in their 2026 fantasy football drafts.
Our Expected Fantasy Points Tool is now available as part of our Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
What Are Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)?
Expected fantasy points (xFP) is an attempt to quantify the value of fantasy touches rather than relying on just the total number of touches.
Let’s say we have two running backs.
Running Back A gets 200 carries from their own 20-yard line.
Running Back B gets 200 carries from the opponent’s one-yard line.
They both received the same number of touches, but obviously, Running Back B would be expected to score more fantasy points thanks to the value of goal-line carries.
Running Back B's xFP total tells us a lot more about his usage than his carry total.
How are Expected Fantasy Points Calculated?
An expected fantasy point model looks at the situation for each opportunity (location, down, distance, air yards, etc.) and determines what the average fantasy player would score in that situation based on historical data.
For instance, we can determine the average historical value of a wide receiver target in the end zone that travels 17 yards down the field from the line of scrimmage.
Add up all of those plays over the course of a game or season, and you get a player's expected fantasy points.
We can then compare those xFPs to his actual fantasy points to draw conclusions about his fantasy value moving forward.
Limitations of Expected Fantasy Points
Because expected fantasy points rely on the league-average outcome for each situation, it can undersell elite players and elite coaching.
Some players will consistently overachieve their expected point total because they are simply better than an average player.
Some teams will consistently overachieve their expected point totals because the scheme or quarterback elevates the situation.
For instance, Jahmyr Gibbs dramatically outperformed his expected rushing touchdown total last year, but that is just the norm for a player who has the explosive ability to score from anywhere.
2025: 13 rushing touchdowns, 7.3 expected rushing touchdowns
2024: 16 rushing touchdowns, 10.7 expected rushing touchdowns
2023: 10 rushing touchdowns, 6.7 expected rushing touchdowns
While nearly doubling expected rushing touchdown production would be a regression red flag for a lot of players, it is not for Gibbs because of his track record.
It is important to analyze each situation on a player-by-player basis, which you can do in our new Expected Fantasy Points Tool.
Click here for our Expected Fantasy Points Tool!
