I am switching it up a bit this week and will be focusing more on where/why players are moving up or down or even staying the same from the last mock to the current version. I have also added some betting lines that are currently being offered on DraftKings on a few players and will continue to track those and try to note if there are any major moves in odds.
If you want to see what I think a team needs or more description of a particular player you can find those aspects addressed in the previous iterations. We have a lot of movement this week as the majority of pro days are now completed and the draft draws closer with under a month to go!
Pick #1 Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Previous Mock Selection: Lawrence
Even after impressive pro days from some of the other QB’s, nothing has changed here and nothing will change here.
Pick #2 New York Jets – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
Previous pick: Wilson
His pro day certainly did not hurt his draft status, as one of his throws went viral and had scouts claiming that Wilson is the pick and the draft really begins at pick No. 3.
Pick #3 San Francisco 49ers – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Previous pick: Trey Lance, QB
And we have our first trade of draft season! I said last week when I had Trey Lance in this spot that I heard the Mac Jones speculation but I wasn’t buying it. Well, life comes at you fast in draft season and things change quickly so I have moved Jones here because there is just too much smoke not to believe that he is a real possibility at No. 3. In fact, when asked about going to the Alabama pro day vs some of the others, Shanahan said “now that you’re up at 3, you don’t have to hide as much.” I’m not sure how else to interpret that so I think if the draft was tomorrow Jones would be the pick but let’s see if Lance or Fields can change Kyle Shanahan’s mind in the next month.
Pick #4 Atlanta Falcons – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio St.
Previous pick: Fields
I’m going to keep saying this every week. I believe a QB is going fourth but still not sure which team will be picking in this spot. Atlanta is now in an enviable spot where if they are sold that Fields or Lance is a franchise QB they can take them, even with the Matt Ryan restructure. But if they don’t, they can trade down with a team that does and pick up extra draft capital. With quarterbacks pushing other positions down the board, they could likely still get a guy they would’ve considered at No. 4, depending on how far they trade back.
Pick #5 Cincinnati Bengals – Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Previous pick: Ja’Marr Chase, WR
I’ve flipped flopped on this pick three mocks in a row now, going back and forth between Sewell and Chase but this week I am going back to Sewell. At only 20 years old, he showed off his strength and athleticism at his recent pro day in front of three members of the Bengals organization, including head coach Zac Taylor. The Super Bowl showed it doesn’t matter what weapons you have on offense if you can’t protect the QB and after Burrow’s season-ending injury last year, neither he nor the Bengals can afford to have a major injury happen like that again that could start to derail his career.
Pick #6 Miami Dolphins – Kyle Pitts
Previous pick: Penei Sewell, OT
With Miami trading back up to No. 6 this early in the draft process, they must be confident that one of the guys they would have taken at No. 3 will be there. I don’t think they can be very confident that Penei Sewell will be there so they must have been thinking of an offensive skill player to give Tua Tagovailoa another weapon to build around. Pitts confirmed with his 4.46 40 that he perhaps is the biggest weapon in this draft and will be able to create mismatches no matter where he lines up on the field.
Sidenote – Pitts is currently listed as the favorite to be the first offensive player taken outside of QB on DraftKings at +125 (Sewell is currently +200 which I think represents some nice value.)
Pick #7 Detroit Lions – Ja’marr Chase, WR, LSU
Previous pick: Jaylen Waddle, WR
Chase falls down a couple of spots in this week’s mock but that is not due to any fault of his own. In fact, Chase did nothing but solidify his status as the clear-cut WR1 in this draft at his pro day by clocking a 4.38 40 and logging a 41-inch vertical and 11-foot broad jump. While he was already the favorite to be the 1st WR taken in the draft, after his pro day he has moved to -400 on DraftKings.
Pick #8 Carolina Panthers – Trey Lance, QB North Dakota St.
Previous pick: Kyle Pitts, TE
Carolina would be thrilled if they can stay where they are and still land one of the top-five quarterbacks. Lance is the biggest wildcard QB in this draft as many still believe he is in play for San Francisco at No. 3 but because of the lingering questions about his lack of experience, especially against top end competition, he may find himself ultimately being the fifth QB off the board on draft night.
Pick #9 Denver Broncos – Micah Parsons, LB, Penn St.
Previous pick: Mac Jones, QB
If one of the top quarterbacks is still on the board here, expect Denver to go with whoever that is but unless they move up there is a solid possibility none will be left by the time the Broncos are on the clock. Parsons has the talent to be selected in the top 10 but there are some off-the-field concerns. As long as Denver signs off on his character then he is the pick here. DraftKings currently lists Parsons as the favorite to be the first defensive player taken in the draft at -134.
Pick #10 Dallas Cowboys – Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
Previous pick: Surtain
Surtain is the only other player in the top 10 I’ve had in the same spot every mock outside of Lawrence and Wilson. This pick makes too much sense when you factor in talent, need, and fit. With the Caleb Farley news, I think it takes him out of the running for the first cornerback taken and it’s now between Surtain and Jaycee Horn. DraftKings has Surtain currently listed at -305 to be the first corner taken.
Pick #11 New York Giants – Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
Previous pick: Slater
I know some out there want the Giants to take a pass rusher here, especially after Jaelan Phillips wowed at his pro day but I think New York still sticks with offensive tackle, especially if Rashawn Slater is still available. The Giants ranked 31st in the league in pressure rate allowed last year. At 6’4″, 304lbs, Slater may not be the biggest or strongest offensive lineman in the draft but has the athletic profile to also move inside if need be, which may be what has him considered one of the safest picks in the draft. That’s exactly what a team needs that is trying to protect what they believe to be their franchise QB.
Pick #12 Philadelphia Eagles -DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Previous pick: Smith
In this scenario, the Eagles still have their pick between former teammates of Jalen Hurts, which they have to be thrilled with after trading back from No. 6. With the Eagles taking Jalen Reagor, who ran a sub 4.3, in the first round of last year’s draft, they already have their burner so I’ll stick with Smith who I had here last week as they go with the more complete WR.
Pick #13 Los Angeles Chargers – Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
Previous pick: Darrisaw
The Chargers may be tempted with Jaylen Waddle still sitting here but as I explained in my rationale for the Bengals pick, I think the Chargers will stick with offensive tackle and Darrisaw here. The Chargers at least addressed the offensive line this offseason and made a big upgrade by signing Corey Linsley to a five-year deal, but that didn’t solve all their issues along the line. Darrisaw is widely considered one of, if not the best pure blocker in this class as he consistently got better during his three years as a starter at Virginia Tech. Blocking for franchise QB Justin Herbert should remain the Chargers’ top priority.
Pick #14 Minnesota Vikings – Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Miami
Previous pick: Gregory Rousseau, EDGE
Unfortunately for his teammate Gregory Rousseau, Phillips put on a show at the Miami pro day including running a 4.56 40 time at 260lbs. For those who had it as a coin toss between the Hurricane teammates, many believe Phillips separated himself and is the best pass rusher in the draft. Daniel Jeremiah commented that he would be a top-10 pick if not for his medical concerns. No team in the league had a lower pressure rate on opposing QB’s last year than the Vikings, so they don’t let the most talented pass rusher fall past them. Phillips is currently listed at +150 as the first defensive lineman to be drafted, behind Kwity Paye, which I think represents some value after his impressive pro day.
Pick #15 New England Patriots – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Previous pick: Jaycee Horn, CB
Normally I would not project a receiver to the Patriots in Round 1, given their track record of recent receiver picks. But this offseason has shown that Belichick is acknowledging the lack of weapons on offense and while he did add both Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne, they still lack a true WR1.
Both Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels were at the most recent Alabama pro day and while they were there to watch Mac Jones throw, I am sure they got some insight from their good friend Nick Saban on Waddle. Assuming Waddle’s medicals check out, he is too talented to fall much further than this.
Pick #16 Arizona Cardinals – Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
Previous pick: Caleb Farley, CB
Another great fit between value and need as Horn certainly could be in the conversation with the Cowboys at No. 10 or even as high as Detroit at No. 7, depending on how the draft plays out. That said, DraftKings currently lists him at +300 to be the first corner taken, which seems a little high to me especially given Farley is now most likely out of consideration.
Pick #17 Las Vegas Raiders – Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma St.
Previous pick: Micah Parsons, LB
Sticking with the theme that Gruden and Mayock like to go with “wow” guys, they go with Jenkins here who according to the RAS system (Relative Athletic Scores) just scored a 9.73 out of 10.00 which ranks him 31st out of 1129 OT’s measured from 1987 to 2021. With the loss of Trent Brown, Jenkins can plug right into right tackle for the Raiders in 2021.
Pick #18 Miami Dolphins – Kwity Paye, Edge, Michigan
Previous pick: Paye
It’s certainly not due to his talent or performance on the field or on his pro day that has Kwity Paye still available here at 18 but rather the team needs earlier in the draft coupled with a lot of skilled offensive players in this year’s draft that has defensive players falling a bit. DraftKings does have Paye listed as the favorite to be the first defensive lineman selected at +100.
Pick #19 Washington Football Team – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
Previous pick: Zaven Collins, LB
JOK had an impressive pro day which somewhat went under the radar because he didn’t run the 40 but did have the official Twitter of the Washington Football Team tweeting about him. While not the prototypical size for either a linebacker or safety, he is just a really good football player and should be able to optimize his strengths behind a very stout Washington defensive line.
Pick #20 Chicago Bears – Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
Previous pick: Rashod Bateman, WR
As I mentioned last week, there still remains a rather big wild card between now and the draft and that’s Sam Darnold. I know the official Bears Twitter account tweeted out a statement about QB1 Andy Dalton which drew the ire of pretty much the entire fanbase, but I expect them to still look to upgrade that position if Darnold or perhaps Jimmy Garappolo become available. If they remain at No. 20, they will take the best offensive lineman remaining. Whether or not Vera-Tucker can play OT at the next level remains to be seen, but if not, he could easily be the best guard in the draft and Chicago could use an upgrade at multiple spots on the offensive line.
Pick #21 Indianapolis Colts – Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami
Previous pick: Sam Cosmi, OT
As mentioned earlier, Rousseau drops from 14 to 21 in this week’s mock as his teammate drew the buzz after both performed at the Miami pro day. I expect the Colts to address edge rusher and offensive tackle with their first two picks and Rousseau offers some better value here than any of the OT’s remaining, so they go edge first.
Pick #22 Tennessee Titans – Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Previous pick: Jaelan Phillips, EDGE
Farley sees his draft stock fall a bit due to his latest back injury that kept him from participating in his pro day. He was, however, able to run an unofficial sub 4.4 40 before then. The Titans, all of a sudden, have a glaring need at cornerback after losing two starters this offseason so they are willing to take the risk on Farley who was considered a potential top-10 pick going into the draft process. Farley, once listed at +200 on Draftkings to be the first cornerback selected, has seen his odds move down to +800.
Pick #23 New York Jets – Sam Cosmi, OL, Texas
Previous pick: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL
I can see the Jets and new coach Robert Salah tempted to add another pass rusher here even after signing Carl Lawson, but their paramount concern should be protecting their No. 2 pick. Cosmi may lack a little in strength but his 9.99 RAS score is the second-highest score ever for an offensive tackle in the history of the system.
Pick #24 Pittsburgh Steelers – Jaylen Mayfield, OT, Michigan
Previous pick: Mayfield
Offensive tackle seems to be a bigger need for teams the deeper we get into the draft and the Steelers are no exception. In fact, they could use an upgrade in multiple spots on the line after losing two starters this offseason. Mayfield will give them some flexibility in that regard with the ability to play either tackle or guard.
Pick #25 Jacksonville Jaguars – Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
Previous pick: Barmore
I haven’t kept many picks the same from last week’s draft but actually have back-to-back ones here in Mayfield and Barmore. Barmore is just the best DT in this draft and fills an obvious need for Jacksonville so the pick just continues to make a lot of sense here.
Pick #26 Cleveland Browns – Jayson Oweh, Edge, Penn St.
Previous pick: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB
Oweh is the first player I did not have in last week’s mock who now sees his name in the first round. His zero sacks last year are a concern but his athletic testing is just too good (9.93 RAS Score) to ignore and should be enough to get him into the first round. The Browns have one of the most gifted pass rushers in the league already and can try to develop another one in Oweh.
Pick #27 Baltimore Ravens – Zaven Collins, OLB, Tulsa
Previous pick: Teven Jenkins, OT
I don’t like moving Collins down after his pro day performance that drew comps to Anthony Barr, the ninth overall pick in the 2014 draft, but he goes to a place that has an immediate need for him. Baltimore could use help filling their outside linebacker roles, losing both Matt Judon and Yannick Ngakoue in the offseason. He should be able to plug right into the Judon role as he has a very similar athletic profile.
Pick #28 New Orleans Saints – Terrence Marshall, WR, LSU
Previous pick: Kadarius Toney, WR
Another player that finds himself moving up draft boards and now into my first-round projection for the first time. We knew he had the size but running a 4.38 40 at his pro day opened some eyes to what his ceiling may be at the next level and could be a perfect complement to more of an underneath pass catcher in Michael Thomas. DraftKings has the over/under for wide receivers selected in the first round at 4.5 and the under at +140, which has some value as Marshall is the fourth and last receiver I currently have in the first round. I even almost went with Jamin Davis (LB) here on top of it.
Pick #29 Green Bay Packers – Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
Previous pick: Newsome
Newsome may go sooner than this depending on what teams decide with Farley’s medical concerns coupled with Newsome’s impressive pro day running a 4.38 40. DraftKings has the total for cornerbacks selected in the first round at 3.5 and the over is -177, which makes sense as Newsome is now the fourth corner I have off the board.
Pick #30 Buffalo Bills – Azeez Ojulari, Edge, Georgia
Previous pick: Travis Etienne, RB
This is the first time I don’t have the Bills addressing their running game in the first round as I think they will still be able to do that with their next pick. Instead, they turn to their pass rush after a disappointing performance in the AFC Championship Game where they only had one sack and two quarterback hits all game. DraftKings does list Ojulari as a linebacker, so he becomes my fourth LB selected and DK has the total for LB’s selected at 4.5 and the under at -225.
Pick #31 Kansas City Chiefs – Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
Previous pick: Liam Eichenberg, OT
Now that the majority of free agents have been signed, it is easy to see that Kansas City will still look to upgrade their OT situation in the draft. I think Leatherwood alleviated some of the concerns about his lack of athleticism to play offensive tackle in the NFL at his pro day with his 9.68 RAS score, which was higher than Penei Sewell’s. Leatherwood is my eighth offensive lineman selected in the first round and DraftKings has the over/under set at 6.5 with the over at -150, which I would still take. As I’ve mentioned earlier, I think teams will prioritize offensive line this draft coming off of the Super Bowl and couple that with the fact that offensive linemen are usually some of the safest picks in the draft. With a very unique draft process this year I can see teams leaning towards the safer picks.
Pick #32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
Previous pick: Azeez Ojulari, EDGE
Speaking of unique, it looks like the defending Super Bowl champions will be bringing back all 22 starters from that game, which is almost unheard of. So they go with a luxury pick since they missed out on James White and add an explosive running back that can immediately help them now in the passing game and then ultimately be Leonard Fournette’s replacement. Etienne is my only running back in the first round and DraftKings has the over/under at 1.5, which suggests they do think at least one is taken. The under is at -200.
I still think that suggests they think one is drafted because they list the over/under for safeties at 0.5. Quick aside on that line, they do have the over set at -278 and the under at +210, which I think offers great value since I currently do not have a safety projected in the first round.