2024 College Football Win Totals: ACC Picks & Best Bets

The 2024 College Football season is right around the corner, which means it is time to start looking for the best win total bets for the upcoming season.

In this series, I will take a look at win total bets for a few appealing teams in each of the four major conferences.

There are many more futures available in our 2024 College Football Futures package.

With that out of the way, let's check out the ACC.

Best Bet: Miami FL Over 9 wins

Let’s acknowledge the risk in betting Miami’s over right off the bat: Mario Cristobal finds ways to lose football games.

Last year’s historic meltdown against Georgia Tech was the best example yet, but it dates back to his time at Oregon.

There’s a good reason why most Oregon fans weren’t broken up about his departure.

That said, this Miami roster might be too talented for Cristobal to get in the way.

Cristobal and his staff have done well in the transfer portal, most notably adding former Washington State quarterback Cam Ward.

The addition of former Tennessee edge-rusher Tyler Baron (15.4% pressure rate in 2023) should also give Miami a dominant pass rush.

Barron will join star sophomore Rueben Bain Jr. on a defense that ranked 11th in the nation in opponent-adjusted pressure rate last season, per Sports Info Solutions.

The schedule should help Miami as well.

The Canes avoid Clemson and get Florida State and Virginia Tech at home.

A road trip to Louisville likely won’t be easy, but it’s tough to find four potential losses on this schedule without predicting a significant upset somewhere.

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Best Bet: Duke Over 5 wins

Duke lost quarterback Riley Leonard to Notre Dame and head coach Mike Elko to Texas A&M, but enough talent returns for this team to get to bowl eligibility.

The key offseason addition was quarterback Maalik Murphy, who started two games at Texas last year while filling in for an injured Quinn Ewers.

Expect this year’s squad to feature a run-heavy offense behind an offensive line that added three experienced starters in the transfer portal.

The backfield depth will help as well, with running backs Jaquez Moore and Star Thomas, a transfer from New Mexico State.

The 225-pound Thomas picked up 3.0 yards after contact per attempt last season, per Sports Info Solutions.

A non-conference schedule featuring Elon, Northwestern, UConn, and Middle Tennessee gives Duke the potential to start 4-0, meaning a 2-6 ACC record would be all we need to hit the over.

Florida State and Miami look like losses for the Blue Devils, but they should be competitive in every other conference game.

Best bet: North Carolina Under 7.5 wins

North Carolina’s offensive line was an issue last year, as evidenced by this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:

Ranked 76th in pressure rate allowed
Ranked 111th in yards before contact generated

The Heels return just one starter to the offensive line (Willie Lampkin). The projected starters around Lampkin combined for zero starts in 2023.

Perhaps this new crew will be an upgrade, but it’s tough to rebuild an offensive line in just one year.

The play of the offensive line will be critical to the Tar Heels’ performance if quarterback Max Johnson (Texas A&M transfer) wins the starting job due to his lack of mobility.

Due to his experience, Johnson does a decent job getting the ball out quickly, but still took a sack on 14% of his dropbacks versus pressure last year with the Aggies.

North Carolina has plenty of winnable games on the schedule, but many of their toughest opponents will be on the road. Here are the Heels’ road games: