Sorting through the endless list of prop bets available for Super Bowl 58 is a challenge, so we’re here to help.

Here are a few of my favorite props to bet for the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 58 against the San Francisco 49ers.

Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Chiefs vs. 49ers covered in our Super Bowl 58 Hub.

Consider the over on Patrick Mahomes’ rush attempts prop

Take the over on Patrick Mahomes’ rush attempts, as he tends to run more in big games.

Patrick Mahomes’ rush attempts, current line:

Patrick Mahomes ran just twice in an easy win over the Dolphins. Then, he had six attempts against both the Bills and Ravens.

That’s consistent with the trend throughout his career, as he averages 4.8 attempts per game in the postseason and 3.9 during the regular season. 

Mahomes runs even more in the Super Bowl (6.7 attempts per game) and has at least five rush attempts in all three of his Super Bowl appearances. 

Although that’s a small sample size, there’s obvious logic behind the trend, as any quarterback is more likely to put his body on the line for a few extra yards in the Super Bowl than the regular season. 

Don’t miss out on our Super Bowl recommendations

As a THANK YOU for following us throughout the season, we wanted to offer you an option to save and get on board for our Super Bowl betting recommendations:

Hurry! This sale ends soon, AND EVEN SOONER we’ll be releasing written game previews, Super Bowl bets, and props.

This year has been another outstanding time to be a betting client at Sharp Football Analysis, with Warren Sharp‘s betting recommendations running extremely hot late in the season:

  • Final 11 weeks in NFL: 58-32 (64%)
  • Final 2023 Profits: $100 Bettors finished up $8,148
  • Final 2023 Elevated Plays Record: 102-64 (61%)
  • Final 2023 1+ Unit Plays Record: 27-11 (71%)
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  • Final 2023 NFL Computer Totals: 38-23 (62%)
  • Final 2023 NCAAF Bowls: 9-1 (90%)

Historically, we’ve been outstanding in the Super Bowl:

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Consider the over on Isiah Pacheco’s rush attempts prop

Take the over on Isiah Pacheco’s rush attempts, as Kansas City has leaned heavily on him during this postseason run.

Isiah Pacheco’s rush attempts, current line:

When active during the regular season, Isiah Pacheco accounted for 77.9% of the handoffs to running backs. In three postseason games, that rate is up to 86%. 

Pacheco has easily cleared this number twice this postseason, with 24 carries against the Ravens and Dolphins. He fell just short with 15 attempts against Buffalo. 

Since San Francisco is favored, there’s some concern game flow could dictate a pass-heavy approach for Kansas City. However, we’ve seen them lean heavily on Pacheco even in losses.

Pacheco reached 18 carries in a loss against Green Bay and 19 in a loss against Philadelphia. 

Consider the under on Justin Watson’s receptions prop

Due to his limited postseason role, take the under on Justin Watson’s receptions. 

Justin Watson’s receptions, current line:

In three postseason games, Justin Watson has just three receptions on five targets. 

Two of those receptions came in an easy win over the Dolphins when Watson played 68% of Kansas City’s snaps.

However, Watson played just 44% of the Chiefs’ snaps in close wins against the Bills and Ravens. 

Our confidence in this prop went up when Skyy Moore was activated from injured reserve on Wednesday.

Moore’s return will not eliminate Watson from the game plan, but Moore, Watson, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are now competing for snaps, likely reducing all of their workloads. 

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