In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week. Since player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.

This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted. Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.

Also, be sure to check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Thursday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.

$150 OFF Postseason Packages
Use code “NFL150”
2022 Playoffs record: 26-10 (72%)
Super Bowl record: 25-10 (71%)

CONSIDER THE OVER ON PATRICK MAHOMES’S PASS ATTEMPTS PROP BET

The Kansas City Chiefs are three-point favorites against the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday night, with the total set to 51.5 points. 

In an expected close, high-scoring game, it feels safe the bet the over on Patrick Mahomes’s pass attempts props available at these numbers:

  • 37.5 pass attempts on BetMGM
  • 37.5 pass attempts on FanDuel Sportsbook 
  • 37.5 pass attempts on DraftKings Sportsbook

Since the start of 2020, the Chiefs have played in five games with a spread of three points or less and a total over 50 points. In those contests, Mahomes has averaged 46 pass attempts per game, topped 40 in four of the five. 

The only game in that group where Mahomes attempted fewer than 37.5 pass attempts was a surprisingly low-scoring game against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11, when he threw the ball 37 times. 

In these types of games, the Chiefs tend to come out with an aggressive pass-heavy game plan. Even in that game against the Cowboys, in the first quarter the Chiefs called 11 pass plays against just four rush attempts. 

Expect Kansas City to feature a similar pass-heavy game plan against Los Angeles and, as long as the Chargers keep the game close, Mahomes should hit the over on his pass attempts prop. 

CONSIDER THE OVER ON JONATHAN TAYLOR’S RECEPTIONS PROP BET

The Indianapolis Colts run game has been a dominant force this season, but Bill Belichick’s tendency to take away his opponent’s biggest strength may make this a tough day for Jonathan Taylor on the ground. 

If the New England Patriots load the box in an effort to take away the run game, expect Indianapolis to counter with an increased use of the short passing game.

This should be an effective strategy against the Patriots defense, which ranks 21st in yards per attempt allowed on throws within five yards of the line of scrimmage (5.7) and 29th in yards per attempt on throws to running backs at that distance (7.2). 

We recently saw Indy increase Taylor’s passing game usage against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, when he finished with just 16 carries but had four receptions on five targets. 

Taylor’s receptions prop is typically available at 2.5, and the over would be an easy bet to place at that number 一 he’s reached at least three receptions in eight of 13 games, including four of six losses. 

This prop has climbed to 3.5 in certain games, however, which looks like a more risky number, considering Taylor has reached four receptions only three times this season. 

CONSIDER THE UNDER ON NOAH FANT’S LONGEST RECEPTION PROP BET

We lost this prop last week, but let’s go back for more and take the under on Noah Fant’s longest reception again. 

As expected, Fant saw a decreased workload last week (four targets) in an easy victory over the Detroit Lions. Unfortunately, one of those targets just happened to be his longest of the season (28 air yards), allowing him to hit the over on his longest reception prop of 16.5 yards. 

Fant has been targeted at least 20 yards downfield only three times this season, and has just three receptions on eight targets at 15 or more yards downfield, according to Sports Info Solutions. 

Among 29 tight ends with at least 40 targets, Fant’s average depth of catch (4.8 yards) ranks 20th. 

Although Fant did hit the over on this prop last week, it was just the third time his season the under wasn’t a winner. 

This week against the Cincinnati Bengals, Denver is a 1.5-point favorite with the total set to 43.5 points. As a result, we should anticipate another light workload for Fant in a slow-paced, low-scoring game. 

Fant’s longest reception prop has consistently been available at 17.5 yards this season, but dropped to 16.5 last week. Since the over was a winner, it’s unlikely to drop any further. Assuming it’s available at 16.5 yards or higher, take the under again. 

CONSIDER THE OVER ON COOPER KUPP’S RECEPTIONS PROP BET

Cooper Kupp’s receptions prop is typically available at 7.5 一 a number he’s surpassed in eight of 13 games this season. 

Kupp primarily lines up in the slot (76% of his targets), which could be problematic for the Seattle Seahawks, whose defense has taken a big hit due to the loss of safety Jamal Adams to a season-ending injury. Though Adams most frequently matches up with tight ends, his presence is undoubtedly felt in indirect ways. 

In Week 14, Seattle’s first full game without Adams, Houston Texans rookie quarterback Davis Mills threw to the slot on 43% of his attempts, completing 65% of his passes for 7.5 yards per attempt. He was 7-for-8 for 92 yards targeting Brandin Cooks in the slot. 

Entering the week, Mills’s slot target rate was just 34.5%. The increased rate likely indicates Houston purposefully attacked the slot, exploiting Seattle’s weakness where cornerback Ugo Amadi has been a liability. 

Expect Los Angeles to attempt to attack Seattle’s secondary with a similar approach, which bodes well for Kupp’s chances of hitting the over on his receptions prop. 

CONSIDER THE UNDER ON LEONARD FOURNETTE’S RUSHING YARDS PROP BET

Last week we easily won by betting the over on Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards prop, but that logic was primarily based on the matchup with a struggling Buffalo Bills run defense. 

Though Fournette is having a career resurgence as of late, much of his production has come in the passing game. The under on his rushing yards prop bet has been a winner in four of the last six weeks. 

The New Orleans Saints run defense has been arguably the best unit in the league this season, making this a tough matchup for the Fournette. 

According to Sports Info Solutions, excluding carries inside the 10-yard line, opposing running backs are averaging -0.6 yards before contact per attempts relative to their season average against New Orleans, the best rate in the league. 

The Saints have also contacted opposing ball carries at or behind the line of scrimmage on 43% of their carries, the league’s fourth-highest rate. 

Those numbers don’t bode well for Fournette, who’s been at his best with some space to run. When contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage, Fournette ranks 28th out of 52 qualified running backs, averaging 1.2 yards per attempt, per Sports Info Solutions. 

The Saints’ dominant run defense was a factor in their Week 8 upset of the Bucs, holding Fournette to just 26 yards on eight carries. 

That performance could potentially drive down the available prop numbers this week, but so long as Fournette’s yardage is available over 60 yards (it has been three of the last four weeks), take the under.