In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week. Since player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted. Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Also, be sure to check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Thursday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
CONSIDER THE OVER ON JUSTIN JEFFERSON’S RECEIVING YARDS PROP BET
The Pittsburgh Steelers rank 14th in passing defense, but this still looks like a great spot to bet the over on Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop bet available at these numbers:
- 92.5 receiving yards at BetMGM
- 92.5 receiving yards at DraftKings Sportsbook
- 90.5 receiving yards at FanDuel Sportsbook
Jefferson is consistently used as a downfield weapon in the Minnesota Vikings offense. Including targets on which he drew pass interference, Jefferson sees 5.7 targets per game at 10 more yards downfield, the most in the league by a wide margin.
There’s no reason to think that strategy changes against Pittsburgh, which has been vulnerable to the downfield passing game this year. Per Sports Info Solutions, the Steelers rank 28th in completion percentage allowed at least 10 yards downfield (55.7%).
The available yardage props are the highest of Jefferson’s season, but it’s appropriate given the matchup. Just two weeks ago Pittsburgh was abused downfield by Tee Higgins (6 catches for 114 yards on targets 10 or more yards downfield). The week prior, Keenan Allen had five receptions for 87 yards on targets of 10 yards or more yards.
Knowing the downfield passing game is both a key part of Minnesota’s game plan and one of the primary weaknesses of Pittsburgh’s defense, we should have confidence betting the over on Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop.
CONSIDER THE OVER ON JULIO JONES’S LONGEST RECEPTION PROP BET
After missing the last month with a hamstring injury, Julio Jones returned to practice this week and is expected to suit up for the Tennessee Titans against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.
In what should be an easy Titans win 一 they’re favored by nine points 一 we should probably expect Jones’s snap count to be diminished. That makes betting his receptions or yardage props risky, but his longest reception prop bet is still in play against a shaky Jaguars’ secondary.
Prior to his injury, Jones was targeted at least 15 yards downfield on 29% of his targets. And without A.J. Brown, it’s likely Jones sees a slightly higher share of the downfield targets from Ryan Tannehill.
In this particular game, the odds of Jones cashing in on a long play are elevated based on a projected matchup with Jaguars rookie cornerback Tyson Campbell.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Campbell has allowed a 56.3% catch rate at 15 or more yards downfield, the second-worst rate in the league.
CONSIDER THE UNDER ON NOAH FANT’S LONGEST RECEPTION PROP BET
Denver Broncos tight end Noah Fant’s longest reception prop has consistently been available at 17.5 yards this season (even three games at 18.5 yards), despite having only three receptions of 18 yards or longer.
Fant has been targeted at least 15 yards downfield only seven times with two receptions, according to Sports Info Solutions. And among 27 tight ends with at least 40 targets, Fant ranks 22nd in average depth of catch (4.4 yards).
With the Broncos favored by 7.5 points against the Detroit Lions, it should be a light passing day for Teddy Bridgewater and Fant has seen four or fewer targets in each of the last three Broncos victories.
Unless the available line finally drops, take the under on Fant’s longest reception prop.
CONSIDER THE OVER ON LEONARD FOURNETTE’S RUSHING YARDS PROP BET
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast one of the league’s best offensive lines which, coupled with Leonard Fournette’s physical running style, makes this look like a mismatch for the Buffalo Bills defense.
Statistically, the Bills have one of the best run defenses in the league, but it’s tough to argue they’re actually among the most menacing units given their recent performances against the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots.
There have only been 20 games in which a team ran for 200 yards, but the Bills allowed both Indy and New England to reach those numbers over the last three weeks.
The Bills have been bullied by more physical rushing attacks 一 the Titans can also be grouped in there with the Colts and Patriots 一 and this Buccaneers offensive line is certainly capable of dominating. Excluding carries inside the 10-yard line, Bucs’ running backs are averaging 2.2 yards before contact per attempt, ranked ninth in the league according to Sports Info Solutions.
Fournette has gone over his rushing yards prop in three of four games in which the Bucs were winners by a touchdown or less. So, although his usage is inconsistent, the Bucs do lean more heavily on him when holding a small lead.
With Tampa favored by just three points, this looks like an ideal spot to take the over on Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards.
CONSIDER THE OVER ON DARRELL HENDERSON’S RUSHING YARDS PROP BET
The Arizona Cardinals handled the Los Angeles Rams easily in Week 4, but Darrell Henderson still hit the over on his rushing yards prop and he appears to be capable of repeating that performance on Monday night.
In Week 4, Henderson posted 89 rushing yards on 14 carries (6.4 yards per attempt), and his success was likely due to the Rams’ heavy reliance on 11 personnel in the run game and the Cardinals’ struggles in that area.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Arizona ranks 31st in yards per attempt allowed versus 11 personnel (5.3 yards per attempt).
Henderson carries the ball from 11 personnel 88% of the time, averaging 4.6 yards per attempt.
The Rams are 2.5-point underdogs at Arizona, but, as Henderson proved in their last matchup, he’s capable of hitting the over even without the benefit of a game script in his favor.
Henderson’s rushing yards prop has dropped each of the last three weeks, landing at 65.5 last week. The under has also hit in each of those weeks, so there’s a good chance we get a favorable number despite reasons to believe he has an elevated ceiling in this matchup.
Assuming the line is available under 70 yards again, the over on Darrell Henderson’s rushing yards looks like a strong bet.
