The Super Bowl LVI matchup is set between the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams, so let’s break down a few Super Bowl player props worth betting on this week.
Here’s a dive into some of Matthew Stafford’s quarterback prop bets you should consider for the Super Bowl.
CONSIDER THE OVER: MATTHEW STAFFORD, INTERCEPTIONS PROP BET
Matthew Stafford has been turnover-prone this season, tossing 18 interceptions in 20 games, making the over on his interceptions prop a strong bet on these lines available from some popular sportsbooks.
- 0.5 interceptions on BetMGM (-140)
- 0.5 interceptions on DraftKings Sportsbook (-135)
Beyond his interception total, there’s reason to believe the Bengals’ preferred defensive scheme will increase the odds Stafford throws at least one pick in the Super Bowl.
Last week, I cited Stafford’s performance against the combination of zone coverage with no blitz as a reason to bet the under on his passing yards in the NFC Championship Game. Although a double-digit, second-half deficit increased Stafford’s pass volume and led to a loss on that prop, the 49ers did use zone/no-blitz on 68.8% of Stafford’s dropbacks, the fifth-highest rate he faced all year.
It appears as though San Francisco built its defensive game plan around Stafford’s struggles in those situations, and it’s reasonable to believe the Cincinnati coaching staff may take a similar approach in the Super Bowl.
According to TruMedia/PFF, Cincinnati uses the combination of zone coverage without a blitz on 60% of opponent dropbacks, the ninth highest rate in the league, so we should assume Stafford sees this defensive scheme at a high rate once again.
Stafford has thrown 14 of his 18 interceptions versus the zone/no-blitz combo with a 3.2% interception rate. Against all other defensive schemes, his interception rate falls to just 1.3%.
CONSIDER THE OVER: MATTHEW STAFFORD, TOTAL RUSHING YARDS PROP BET
Matthew Stafford is certainly not known for his mobility, but there may be value in taking the over on his total rushing yards prop bet in the Super Bowl, available at these numbers:
- 5.5 rushing yards on BetMGM (-105)
- 5.5 rushing yards on DraftKings Sportsbook (-105)
- 5.5 rushing yards on FanDuel Sportsbook (-114)
The key to this prop is the Bengals’ commitment to bringing standard pressure. Including the playoffs, Cincinnati blitzes on just 18% of opponent dropbacks, the third-lowest rate in the league, per TruMedia/PFF. This defensive approach should increase the probability Stafford has a few rush attempts in the game.
Excluding kneel-downs, Stafford picked up 84% of his rushing yards on scrambles this season 一 but he only scrambled once versus the blitz on 158 dropbacks.
Additionally, Stafford picked up at least six yards on 50% of his scrambles this season, according to TruMedia.
So based on the Bengals’ defensive tendencies and Stafford’s ability to pick up decent yardage on the ground when given the opportunity, the over on Stafford’s rushing yards prop looks like a smart bet in this matchup.
Be sure to look through our Super Bowl 56 Hub for detailed coverage & analysis on the big game.
Also, check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Thursday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
