The Super Bowl LVI matchup is set between the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams, so let’s break down a few Super Bowl player props worth betting on this week.
Here’s a dive into some prop bets you should consider for the Rams backfield duo of Cam Akers and Sony Michel.
CONSIDER THE OVER: CAM AKERS, TOTAL RUSHING YARDS PROP BET
In four games since returning from the injured reserve, Cam Akers has peaked at 55 rushing yards, but in a favorable matchup against the Bengals, the over on his yardage prop looks like a strong bet for the Super Bowl.
- 63.5 rushing yards on BetMGM (-115)
- 63.5 rushing yards on DraftKings Sportsbook (-115)
- 64.5 rushing yards on FanDuel Sportsbook (-114)
The Rams running game relies heavily on 11 personnel, which accounts for 78% of the team’s handoffs to running backs this year, including 82% of Akers’s carries in the postseason, according to TruMedia.
The Bengals’ overall numbers versus 11 personnel are around league average, allowing 4.4 yards per carry to running backs, ranked 15th. However, if we isolate those numbers to more ambiguous run/pass situations, Cincy’s run defense shows some holes.
Consider the Bengals run defense versus 11 personnel in these down-and-distance scenarios:
Down/Distance Yds/Att Rank 1st Down 4.7 25th 2nd & 5 or less 4.6 23rd
Stats via TruMedia
It appears as though the Bengals struggle versus 11 personnel when they’re unable to anticipate the run.
This trend potentially gives an edge to Akers, as 80% of his carries this postseason have occurred in the two down-and-distance scenarios cited above.
It’s also worth considering a bet on Akers to lead both teams in rushing yards (+110 on DraftKings Sportsbook).
If you’re placing either bet on Akers, however, be sure to consider your expectations for the game script. During the postseason, the Rams run the ball 53% of the time Akers is on the field, and they throw the ball 60% when he’s off the field, according to TruMedia.
As a result, Akers is likely to come off the field if the Rams fall behind. Against San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game, Akers was on the field for just six of 22 plays while the Rams were trailing.
CONSIDER: SONY MICHEL, ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN PROP BET
Although Akers has reclaimed control of the Rams’ backfield, Sony Michel still factors into the mix and is a good bet to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl on these favorable odds:
- +200 on BetMGM
- +240 on DraftKings Sportsbook
- +210 on FanDuel Sportsbook
During the postseason, the Rams have run nine plays inside their opponent’s 5-yard line. Michel was on the field for five of those, Akers only four.
Although Akers has out-touched Michel inside the five-yard line (three carries to one), it does not appear as though there’s a clear favorite for goal-line touches.
Despite these numbers, Akers’s touchdown prop (+115 on BetMGM) would indicate he’s a heavy favorite to score over Michel.
So if you’re interested in placing a touchdown prop on one of the Rams ball carriers, the value is in Michel’s favor.
Be sure to look through our Super Bowl 56 Hub for detailed coverage & analysis on the big game.
Also, check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Thursday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
