Bills (-3.5) at Dolphins

The Dolphins could find themselves unexpectedly in the driver’s seat in the AFC East with a win at home here. They’ll need to do better than the 24th-best yards-per-play in the league against a Bills offense that, despite its somewhat lackluster showing against the Steelers in Week 1, figures to put up a pretty good fight.

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The Bills’ offense lit up the Dolphins in two games last year, scoring a combined 87 points with Josh Allen posting a combined 10.7 yards per attempt and 142 Independent Quarterback Rating (think Passer Rating with adjustments for drops and non-competitive throws). Stefon Diggs was a force—despite any concerns about Xavien Howard on the other side—with a combined 15 receptions for 229 yards.

The big key here is the accuracy of the QBs in this matchup, and there is reason to doubt each passer in this regard. 

Allen had one of the more surprising accuracy improvements we’ve ever seen in 2020, and a single game against the Steelers probably shouldn’t change his outlook much. One thing to keep an eye out for is how the Bills’ offensive line holds up against the Dolphins. The Bills blew more blocks than anyone in Week 1, and the Dolphins pressured Mac Jones 19 times without getting home for a sack. That could bode poorly for Allen, although he was one of the more productive passers when under pressure in 2020 (top-five in Passing Points Earned).

Tua Tagovailoa had the worst On-Target% of any QB in Week 1 (63%). In 2020, only Carson Wentz and Dwayne Haskins were on-target with their throws less frequently than Tua was. Obviously, he can look to the other sideline for an example of a highly-drafted quarterback with accuracy issues figuring it out over time, but it’s an ignominious start.

Lowest On-Target %, 2020 (min. 200 attempts)

PlayerOn-Tgt%Avg Throw Depth
Carson Wentz70.7%8.9
Dwayne Haskins70.9%6.8
Tua Tagovailoa72.7%7.4
Drew Lock73.4%9.2
Cam Newton74.0%7

Tagovailoa’s pass-catchers could do better to pick him up, though. As a team, their On-Target Catch % of 81% was fourth-worst in the league in Week 1.

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